Gold, silver gain a bit amid slightly tamer U.S. inflation data

Gold and silver prices are modestly up in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, in the wake of a U.S. inflation report that came in not as hot as the marketplace expected. Gold prices hit a four-week high and silver prices a five-week high today. October gold futures were last up $3.70 at $1,805.10. September Comex silver futures were last up $0.273 at $20.755 an ounce.

The U.S. consumer price index report for July came in at unchanged from June and up 8.5%, year-on-year. The report was expected to be up 8.7%, year-on-year, after a rise of 9.1% in the June report. Gold prices initially rallied to a four-week high on the news, as the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply and U.S. Treasury yields declined. However, bond yields then ticked back up. Meantime, the U.S. stock indexes rallied amid “risk-on” trading attitudes that also worked to push the safe-haven metals down from their higher levels. After having a bit of time to think about today’s CPI data, traders and investors reckoned that while the data was a bit tamer, it still suggests problematic price inflation that will probably keep the Federal Reserve on its aggressive path of tightening U.S. monetary policy. Thursday comes the producer price index report for July, seen up 0.2% from June and compares to the June report’s rise of 1.1% from May.

For July, seen up 0.2% from June and compares to the June report’s rise of 1.1% from May.

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Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. In overnight news, China said it has stopped its military exercise around Taiwan, but now says it’s preparing for war. On the economic front, China said its consumer price inflation in July was up 2.7%, year-on-year, which is the highest rate in two years.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices up and trading around $91.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index sharply lower and hit a four-week low today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 2.7%.

Technically, October gold futures prices hit another four-week high today. The gold futures bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart to suggest more upside in the near term. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,750.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,814.40 and then at 1,825.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,793.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $1,788.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September silver futures prices hit a five-week high today and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. The bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $20.83 and then at $21.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $20.315 and then at $20.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 665 points at 365.20 cents today. Prices closed near the session high, hit a five-week high and scored a bullish outside day up today. The copper bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 340.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 370.00 cents and then at 375.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 353.15 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold pops to 4-week high on friendlier charts, weaker USDX

Gold prices are moderately up and hit a four-week high in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. The yellow metal was boosted by technical buying, a weaker U.S. dollar index and even by some light safe-haven demand. October gold futures were last up $9.20 at $1,803.60. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.119 at $20.495 an ounce.

Traders are awaiting two key U.S. inflation reports that are on deck. Wednesday comes the consumer price index report for July, which is seen coming in up 8.7%, year-on-year, after a rise of 9.1% in the June report. Thursday comes the producer price index report for July, seen up 0.2% from June and compares to the June report’s rise of 1.1% from May.

Global stock markets were steady to mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Corporate earnings reports are in focus for stock traders this week. China-Taiwan tensions remain high as China is conducting military exercises near Taiwan, with Taiwan saying it will conduct its own military maneuvers. This geopolitical matter is likely prompting some safe-haven demand for gold, especially from Asians.

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The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $90.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is modestly lower in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.783%.

Technically, October gold futures prices hit a four-week high today. The gold futures bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart to suggest more upside in the near term. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,750.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,806.00 and then at 1,825.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,788.50 and then at this week’s low of $1,776.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $20.745 and then at $21.00. Next support is seen at $20.25 and then at $20.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 65 points at 359.30 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another five-week high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 363.05 cents and then at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 353.15 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver boosted by falling USDX, U.S. bond yields, rising oil

Gold and silver prices are higher, with silver sharply up and hitting a five-week high in midday U.S. trading Monday. The precious metals were boosted today by a weaker U.S. dollar index and falling U.S. Treasury bond yields, as well as a rally in the crude oil market today. Some modest safe-haven demand was also featured in gold and silver. October gold futures were last up $12.70 at $1,793.00. September Comex silver futures were last up $0.808 at $20.645 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed to slightly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Corporate earnings reports will be in focus for stock traders this week. We are in the “dog days” of summer, whereby trading volumes in many markets wane as traders and investors step away from markets and take family vacations. Much of Europe is on vacation during August. Markets are likely to be mostly quieter until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September.

Traders are still watching China's military exercises near Taiwan. A Wall Street Journal headline reads, “China's military exercises showcase modern fighting force preparing for possible war in the Taiwan Strait.” This news is also likely keeping a modest safe-haven bid in the gold market.

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The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $90.50 a barrel. Crude oil last Friday hit a 4.5-month low. The U.S. dollar index is lower at midday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 2.8%. The 2-year U.S. T-note yield is 3.209, which has the yield curve still inverted and is one clue the U.S. is in or headed toward economic recession.

Technically, October gold futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,720.00. First resistance is seen at the August high of $1,801.00 and then at 1,825.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,776.20 and then at $1,769.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September silver futures prices hit a five-week high today. September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $20.745 and then at $21.00. Next support is seen at $20.51 and then at $20.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 450 points at 359.70 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a five-week high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 362.25 cents and then at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 353.15 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Heavy price pressure on gold, silver after strong U.S. jobs data

Gold and silver prices are are solidly lower in early U.S. trading Friday, in the wake of a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report that may force the Federal Reserve to become even more aggressive in its monetary policy tightening. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields jumped on the jobs news, which in turn helped push gold and silver prices down. October gold futures were last down $21.70 at $1,774.70. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.507 at $19.615 an ounce.

This morning’s U.S. jobs report for July, showed a very strong rise of 528,000 in non-farm payrolls job growth. A gain of around 260,000 was expected. The June jobs report showed a rise of 372,000 non-farm jobs. The overall unemployment rate in July fell to 3.5% from 3.6% in June. After today’s strong jobs numbers, “the Fed’s dovish pivot is not going to happen,” said one market commentator on Bloomberg radio.

Global stock markets were flat to slightly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session beings, and sold off after the strong non-farm payrolls number.

The marketplace is still a little uneasy amid the escalation in tensions between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this week. China is conducting aggressive military exercises around Taiwan and also announced sanctions against Nancy Pelosi and her family. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said China’s military exercises near Taiwan are a worrisome escalation.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $88.50 a barrel. Crude oil on Thursday hit a 4.5-month low. The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher in early U.S. trading and made a big up-move after the jobs report. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 2.85%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.

Technically, the October gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,801.00 and then at $1,825.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,769.50 and then at this week’s low of $1,759.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price gains suggest a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $20.00 and then at this week’s high of $20.51. Next support is seen at $19.40 and then at $19.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver pressured at mid-week by higher USDX, bond yields, lower oil

Gold and silver prices are lower at midday Wednesday. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, a firmer U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices at mid-week are squelching buying interest in the precious metals. An up-tick in trader/investor risk appetite today is also bearish for the safe-haven metals. October gold futures were last down $14.50 at $1,765.30. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.234 at $19.905 an ounce.

Global stock markets were steady to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher at midday. Trader and investor anxiety has somewhat receded as U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan Tuesday evening without incident—at least not yet. China has vowed retaliation over her visit and plans on conducting a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan.

U.S. Treasury yields have up-ticked this week as U.S. Federal Reserve officials this week reiterated they plan to keep raising U.S. interest rates to choke off problematic price inflation. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 2.75%.

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The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $91.50 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting Wednesday saw the group raise its collective production by only 100,000 barrels per day. The U.S. dollar index is higher at midday.

Technically, October gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,720.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,779.10 and then at this week’s high of $1,794.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,759.70 and then at $1,750.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend has been negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $20.51 and then at $20.75. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.75 and then at $19.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 550 points at 346.45 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a steep six-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are starting to trend up. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 313.15 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 359.70 cents and then at 365.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 344.65 cents and then at 335.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold gets slight safe-haven bid as risk aversion up-ticks

Gold prices are modestly up in midday U.S. trading Tuesday and hit a nearly four-week high earlier, as some safe-haven demand is featured amid keener risk aversion in the marketplace today. October gold futures were last up $4.80 at $1,782.60. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.152 at $20.215 an ounce.

U.S.-China tensions are on the rise today as U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in and visited Taiwan Tuesday evening. China has vowed retaliation. Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday.

Overnight news that the U.S. military killed the leader of Al Qaida in a drone strike in Kabul had little impact on markets.

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The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $94.75 a barrel. Traders are awaiting an OPEC meeting Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher at midday and did help to knock down the precious metals markets from their daily highs.

Technically, October gold futures prices hit a nearly four-week high early on today. The gold futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent gains have negated a price downtrend on the daily bar chart a fledgling price uptrend is now in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,720.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,794.80 and then at $1,800.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,764.10 and then at $1,750.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend has been negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $20.51 and then at $20.75. Next support is seen at $20.00 and then at last Friday’s low of $19.825. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 270 points at 351.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a steep six-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are starting to trend up. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 313.15 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 359.70 cents and then at 365.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 344.85 cents and then at 335.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

How long the recession will last and how it will affect gold and silver

With the US Economy probably shrinking for the second consecutive quarter, the United States likely is now in a recession. CPM Group's Jeffrey Christian looks at some of the previous recessions to discuss how long this one may last, CPM Group's Economic Outlook, and what effect this all may have on Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium.

By CPM Group

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Silver surges 7.45%, gold gains 2.07%, and precious metals participants rejoice

While gold and silver traders are not dancing in the streets, they are quietly rejoicing. Their assumptions, knowledge, and expectations that both gold and silver have been oversold and undervalued were greatly rewarded today. Goods and service prices continue to become more costly and the fact that the Federal Reserve's four consecutive rate hikes have made only a fractional difference in "core" inflation is a strong confirmation that the Federal Reserve is ineffective in reducing inflation to its target level of 2%.

However, when it comes to "headline" inflation which adds the costs of energy, food, and shelter into the equation the net result of their monetary policy has had zero impact with inflation continuing to spiral to higher levels.

Since March the Federal Reserve has raised its Fed funds rate by 2.25% leading to only one major accomplishment if you can call it that. They have effectively contracted the U.S. economy for the last two consecutive quarters. Consumer spending is now growing at the slowest pace in two years as business expenditures decline. Whatever spin government officials put on today's second quarter GDP report the facts speak for themselves.

If I could convey the current economic environment better than Reuters News I would, however, it is the most eloquent description of our current economic environment.

"U.S. teetering on brink of recession as GDP contracts in second quarter,"

The headline above is based upon the following facts; first, second quarter GDP decreased by 0.9%. Secondly, inventories account for a large decline in GDP. Lastly, consumer spending has slowed and business investment has contracted.

The Oxford language dictionary defines a recession as "a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. The country is in the depths of a recession."

It is emphatically clear that the United States economy has met the definition of a recession regardless of what the government wants us to believe. Therefore today's extremely robust move in both gold and silver are highly warranted and long overdue.

As of 5:15 PM, EDT August gold futures are currently up $34.30 which is a net gain of 2%. The December contract which will soon become the most active futures contract and is currently up $35.50 and fixed at $1773.30.

However, it was silver that outshined the precious metals complex today rising by 7.45% with the September futures contract currently up $1.385 and fixed at $19.98.

Over the last month, our daily articles have assumed that gold prices were extremely undervalued and oversold. More so, we identified a key price point at $1680 which we believed had a realistic probability to define a major support level in which a key reversal could take place. Because of that assumption we made a recommendation to our premium subscribers on July 14 to enter an order to buy August gold at $1681 or better. On July 21 gold traded to a low of $1678.60 allowing our open order to be executed. Today we recommended closing the trade out and our effective exit price was just above $1745.

For weeks before gold traded below $1700, we informed our readers at Kitco in our "After Hours" column that $1680 was a major level of support giving them not only the opportunity but the time to act upon that assumption.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley