From Financial To Physical. The Next Big Thing In Crypto – DePIN

Recently, there has been significant interest in decentralized physical infrastructure, also known as DePIN, within the crypto space. People are curious about the potential of this niche and which specific projects within it are worth noting. The latest detailed study, titled State of DePIN 2023 by Messari, aims to provide insights into these questions. This summary will highlight key findings from the report and discuss their potential impact on the cryptocurrency market.

What Is DePIN? 

The report commences with a concise delineation of DePIN, an acronym for decentralized physical infrastructure. It encompasses a cluster of ventures that employ cryptocurrency-based incentives to foster a range of physical infrastructure. These initiatives span from decentralized Wi-Fi systems, decentralized computing clouds, decentralized cloud storage solutions, and decentralized mobile networks to other similar endeavors. A salient feature that sets most DePIN projects apart, in addition to their crypto-based incentives, is the accessibility for individuals to contribute, provided they possess the requisite hardware.

Source: The Messari Report.pdf

The report highlights that DePIN solutions have the advantage of being more efficient, resilient, and high-performing than their centralized counterparts. Additionally, DePIN projects can rapidly innovate and evolve due to community participation, which gives them a unique edge over centralized projects. This efficiency and resilience not only make them attractive to investors but also instill confidence in their long-term viability.

Source: The Messari Report.pdf

The authors posit that DePIN initiatives possess a self-reinforcing mechanism known as a flywheel, whereby their growth and influence fuel further adoption and expansion. As these projects gain traction and popularity among users and service providers, they become even more potent and widespread, creating a positive feedback loop. The authors project that DePIN will substantially impact the global economy, with the potential to augment GDP by a staggering $10 trillion over the next decade. This ambitious projection underscores the transformative potential of these projects.

Source: The Messari Report.pdf

The authors go on to list the industries in which DePIN is currently causing significant changes. These industries encompass various areas such as digital maps in the crypto sector, energy grid management, home internet services, food delivery platforms, ride-sharing services, and, surprisingly, even pet and livestock-related projects. It should be noted that these endeavors are still in their initial phases.

The authors have categorized crypto projects in the DePIN niche into six categories: compute, wireless, energy, AI, services, and sensors. According to their analysis, there are over 650 cryptos across these categories, with a combined market capitalization of over $20 billion.

 
Source: The Messari Report.pdf

The DePIN projects have garnered significant interest from venture capitalists, resulting in substantial capital being invested. To put it in perspective, the top ten DePIN projects alone have collectively secured a significant amount of funding. It's worth noting that many of these projects continue to attract investments even after their initial coin offerings (ICOs) and the launch of their main networks.

It is uncommon for a crypto project to secure substantial funding after its ICO. However, when this does happen, it indicates that investors have tremendous confidence in the project's potential. The DePIN niche has attracted significant post-ICO funding, with numerous projects raising substantial amounts. The top ten DePIN crypto projects in terms of funding raised include Filecoin and Helium, each securing $250 million, RNDR Network with $100 million, Fetch AI with $75 million, Livepeer with $50 million, Really with $35 million, Hivemapper with $25 million, Andrena with $25 million, Braintrust with $25 million, and DIMO with $20 million.

DePIN Blockchains

Intriguingly, most of the nearly thousand crypto projects operating within the DePIN space are opting to deploy on a select few cryptocurrency blockchains. This observation encompasses both layer one and layer two blockchains, with Solana emerging as the most favored layer one choice among DePIN projects.

The authors cite the high speed, affordability, and use of the Rust programming language as reasons for this. Among layer two solutions, Caldera and Eclipse are favored for DePIN projects. These platforms offer flexibility, enabling DePIN projects to blend Ethereum's security with Solana's performance, as seen in the case of Eclipse.

In addition to layer one blockchains that prioritize DePIN, the authors highlight some notable examples. Iotex is one such example, which was already utilized by the US military for health monitoring trials in November 2021. Peaq, on the other hand, is still in the pre-launch phase, but it has already generated significant interest and excitement within the community.

The importance of DePIN adoption cannot be overstated, as it will have a profound impact on both layer one and layer two. The success of DePIN chains and projects hinges on the demand side of the equation, which is carefully examined in the second part of the report.

Unlike many other cryptocurrencies, the authors emphasize that DePIN revenues are fueled by utility rather than speculation. They highlight that participants in DePIN projects typically need to purchase and lock or burn their associated tokens in return for access to the decentralized service or product being provided. This characteristic aligns DePIN projects with traditional crypto coins, which are utilized for various purposes, such as payment of fees and staking.

According to the authors, DePIN projects consistently yield an estimated $15 million in yearly on-chain revenue throughout the bear market. Given the large number of DePIN projects, this amount may seem insignificant. The authors, however, need to offer a clear answer to which DePIN projects are the most profitable, leaving it open to speculation.

However, it is worth mentioning that Livepeer has developed a dashboard named the Web 3 Index, which monitors the earnings of major DePIN projects. Decentralized storage and computing are generating the highest revenue.

Source: The Messari Report.pdf

The authors highlight the evolution of DePIN projects, with many expanding their offerings to become comprehensive platforms providing a variety of decentralized products and services. They cite Filecoin, Helium, RNDR Network, and Bittensor as five notable examples of such platforms, demonstrating the diversification of DePIN projects beyond their initial scope.

DePIN Categories

Compute
In the next section, the authors divide the Compute category into its previously discussed main elements: Storage, Compute, and Retrieval. They mention that specific DePIN projects within the compute category, such as Filecoin and Akash Network, provide a “full stack experience.” 

Source: The Messari Report.pdf

In terms of Storage, it's suggested that DePIN could gain widespread acceptance by utilizing decentralized data storage. While other cryptocurrency projects and protocols have primarily adopted this technology, it's promising to see increased decentralization across the crypto space. This article provides an opportunity to delve deeper into the meaning of decentralization.

The authors highlight that Compute faces the opposite issue compared to storage. While there is an abundance of decentralized data storage but insufficient demand for it, the supply of decentralized computing power is lacking. Yet, there is a surplus of demand for it.

The authors note that decentralizing Retrieval poses a significant challenge, especially in maintaining competitiveness. This is primarily due to the fact that Cloudflare, a centralized retrieval protocol, currently serves 20% of all regular websites at no cost, making it challenging to monetize alternative solutions.

Wireless
This relates to the next DePIN category the authors detailed earlier: Wireless. The growth of the total addressable market for decentralized wireless services has been exponential, and it's no surprise why. The demand for decentralized wireless services is rising as the world becomes increasingly interconnected. This category of DePIN has even earned its own name – DeWi, short for decentralized wireless – highlighting its significance in the industry.

The authors also divide this category into three parts: mobile, fixed internet, and Wi-Fi. Helium, in particular, is gaining significant attention due to its rapid expansion and popularity. As an illustration, Helium has collaborated with T-Mobile to offer affordable mobile plans across the US.

Source: The Messari Report.pdf

Data Sales
The authors decided to examine a new category not initially included in their list but gaining significant interest: Data sales. They point out the importance of data in a world that is becoming more digital. 

That is why they are optimistic about DePIN initiatives such as Hivemapper, which motivates individuals to map their local surroundings, similar to Google Maps but without a central authority. They also highlight other specialized DePIN projects, such as one that monitors noise pollution in a community-driven manner.

This relates to another category detailed earlier: Services. According to their perspective, they classify services into two types: horizontal services, like decentralized marketplaces for freelance work, and vertical services, such as decentralized ride-sharing systems.

The conversation shifts to the emerging DePIN category of  Vertical Ads, but surprisingly, they don't offer much insight into it. Notably, they fail to mention the Brave browser in this context. The situation is similar regarding energy-related DePIN initiatives, as they are also in the early stages of development.

DePIN Growth, Potential 

The report now shifts its attention to the supply side of the equation, specifically examining the remarkable growth and potential of DePIN nodes. The authors begin by presenting an interesting fact: The number of DePIN nodes continues to grow and has now surpassed 600,000. The graph below illustrates that the Wi-Fi map nodes are the most numerous, with more than 200,000 nodes being a part of the DePIN project.

Source: The Messari Report.pdf

The authors note a rapid increase in the quantity of DePIN nodes. This growth is attributed to DePIN initiatives addressing scalability challenges related to the expansion of physical infrastructure. Consequently, DePIN offerings are becoming more affordable and of higher quality. It is worth noting that the development of this physical infrastructure is being encouraged through the distribution of crypto incentives, particularly tokens awarded to individuals contributing to such infrastructure.

The tokenomics of these tokens are integral to the supply-side equation, and the authors recognize three distinct strategies. First, supply-based tokenomics encourages growth. Second, demand-based tokenomics promotes efficiency. Lastly, a combination of supply- and demand-based tokenomics strikes a balance between development and efficiency.

The advantages and disadvantages of the three methods are outlined in the image below. The authors also observe that certain strategies have been more effective for specific DePIN projects. For example, they note that projects that require a lot of hardware benefit the most from supply-based tokenomics, as it essentially rewards contributors with a large number of tokens. On the other hand, DePIN projects that are primarily software-based can expand by offering points that may eventually be converted into tokens.

Source: The Messari Report.pdf

In assessing the value of various DePIN projects, the authors recommend focusing on both the market cap and the fully diluted valuation. Their rationale is that DePIN projects often involve significant investments from venture capitalists, which can influence price movements. 

Essentially, the authors suggest that the demand for specific DePIN offerings may be tempered by the influx of tokens from initial project backers. They imply that lower-quality DePIN projects may encounter challenges and predict that many early investors will opt to sell once their portfolios have appreciated five to tenfold.

Before making any investment decisions, it's crucial to thoroughly investigate cryptocurrencies, especially those in emerging sectors like DePIN. While some experts recommend investing in blockchains that support DePIN projects to mitigate risk, this approach may not yield returns as substantial as identifying and investing in promising DePIN projects early on, with their potential for 100x growth.

Source: The Messari Report.pdf

DePIN 2024 Forecast 

The section of Messari's DePIN report that garnered the most excitement is the predictions for DePIN in 2024. According to the authors, the first theme you need to watch out for is the intersection of DePIN and AI, which is expected to play a crucial role in DePIN's development. DePIN AI has the potential to surpass centralized AI in terms of capabilities and effectiveness within the next one to two years.

The second important topic is the intersection between DePIN and meme coins. While the idea may seem odd, the authors acknowledge this and use the Solana phone Bonk airdrop as an example to show how these two can be paired. This also hints at a future where physical infrastructure is encouraged through the use of meme coins.

The third important aspect to be mindful of is the intersection of DePIN with zero-knowledge technology. By leveraging advanced zero-knowledge technology, DePIN could carry out a form of cyber attack known as a vampire attack on Web 2, which involves taking control of users' content and activity.

The fourth theme to watch is similar to the third but focuses on the intersection between DePIN and gaming. Think of it as GameFi on steroids, where the cryptocurrency elements of gaming are integrated with cutting-edge gaming technology, such as VR headsets, to create a more immersive and interactive experience.

The fifth theme to be mindful of is the intersection between DePIN and privacy, with a particular focus on decentralized virtual private networks (VPNs) as a critical intersection area.

The authors highlight a curious trend in DePIN: The intersection between DePIN and Asia, referring to the continent, is expected to yield unexpected results. They foresee multiple top 10 DePIN projects emerging from this region, with most still in the nascent stages of development.

What It Means For Crypto

The DePIN report's findings have significant implications for the cryptocurrency market. In essence, they suggest that the most successful cryptocurrency narratives and niches during the current bull market will be those that are not financially focused. A previous article on crypto narratives supports this and is reinforced by the fact that some DePIN projects have already acknowledged this trend.

Several crypto initiatives acknowledge that applications related to finance will face increased scrutiny. In contrast, DePIN presents a significantly lower likelihood of antagonizing regulators, and its credibility is evident. The increasing presence of DePIN projects on global app stores and their partnerships with established companies and brands demonstrate that it operates within a safer realm, particularly in regulatory compliance.

Given its immense potential and the nascent stage of most DePIN projects, the DePIN niche is expected to be highly unpredictable from an investment standpoint. While some tokens may experience astronomical growth, others will likely plummet in value or become worthless. Despite the risks, the long-term outlook for DePIN indicates that it will have a lasting impact on the cryptocurrency landscape, contributing to increased adoption and mainstream acceptance.

Previously, the main factors driving cryptocurrency demand were primarily based on speculation. However, real-world adoption may occur with the rise of DePin and other non-financial sectors. This shift could make everyday individuals feel more at ease using and putting money into cryptocurrency, consequently boosting further adoption and investment. Advocates believe that the ultimate goal of cryptocurrency is to decentralize all aspects of life. If that is the desired outcome, we are on the right path.

The reaction of centralized equivalents to the decentralized alternatives of popular products and services is a topic of much speculation. Some anticipate a similar response to DeFi and other disruptors of the traditional financial system, characterized by intense regulatory opposition, mainstream media-fueled FUD, and attempts to suppress their growth. However, DePIN networks have an inherent advantage that will make them more resistant to suppression, as they are generally more decentralized than most cryptocurrencies. This resilience will demonstrate the staying power of crypto.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Tim Moseley

What Is Altcoin Season? When Will It Start? Or Is It Already Here?

Altcoin season, a term on the lips of many cryptocurrency enthusiasts since Bitcoin's recent surge to unprecedented heights, is a phenomenon many have eagerly anticipated. However, despite this anticipation, only a select few coins and tokens, along with many meme coins, have experienced substantial growth. This has led to speculation that altcoin season may never arrive, as funds flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs may not be redirected towards the broader cryptocurrency market. But is this the full story?

With the invaluable insights of some highly credible crypto experts, this article takes a deep dive into the current state of the cryptocurrency market. It focuses on the 'altcoin season' concept and its potential impact on market trends. The article explores why altcoin season has yet to occur and predicts when it may begin. It also offers insights on how to recognize its onset. Additionally, the article highlights the types of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) that may be worth watching during this period.

The Concept of Altcoin Season

Firstly, let's touch on the concept of altcoin season, a term that lacks a universally accepted definition. Some assume it refers to a period where numerous altcoins are experiencing a surge in value, with many believing that it's already underway. Given the recent performance of certain altcoins, one could argue that it's already here. However, this definition falls short of accurately capturing the concept, so here’s a more precise and nuanced explanation.

An altcoin season is an extended timeframe during which most alternative coins exhibit notable outperformance compared to Bitcoin. This can be gauged by analyzing the price of an altcoin with Bitcoin, for example, ETH/BTC. When assessing the BTC pair for various altcoins, it becomes evident that their performance has not been particularly strong. However, this does not imply that they have not experienced price increases in fiat currency; rather, it indicates that their gains have been comparatively lower when measured against Bitcoin. 

The current situation with ETH and BTC is a significant development in the cryptocurrency market. ETH's value has decreased compared to BTC, which has raised concerns among traders and investors. Historically, increases in BTC's value have often been followed by a shift in investments towards alternative cryptocurrencies, leading to a period where most altcoins perform better than BTC. 

Source: Coinmarketcap

In the past, the trend has been to invest in ETH and then move on to other major alternative cryptocurrencies, followed by mid-cap and small-cap altcoins. It is important to note that this progression is not always precise but generally aligns with the idea that investors gravitate towards more speculative crypto assets as market momentum continues. Interestingly, in the current scenario, there has been limited shifting of funds into ETH, as indicated by the underperformance of the ETH/BTC pair mentioned earlier.

Furthermore, it appears that the influx of capital did not favor midcaps and small-caps but instead directed attention towards micro-cap meme coins for speculative purposes. It is important to note that while certain altcoins like Solana's SOL have shown impressive performance compared to BTC, most altcoins, including ETH, have not surpassed BTC's growth. This suggests that the altcoin season may have yet to arrive fully.

As indicated earlier, cryptocurrencies with smaller market capitalizations tend to be riskier. This is because crypto with a smaller market cap has the potential to experience more significant and rapid price increases compared to those with larger market caps. However, on the flip side, small-cap cryptocurrencies are also prone to more substantial drops in value, highlighting the risk/reward ratio. 

The notable 100x returns often associated with certain altcoins are typically achievable with those that have smaller market caps, explaining the hype around the altcoin season. Nevertheless, there are indications that the current cryptocurrency market cycle differs from previous ones, which could have significant implications for the returns on altcoins.

The Question on Everyone's Mind: When Will Altcoin Season Arrive?

Many wonder why the current market cycle hasn't followed the same pattern as previous ones, with altcoins yet to take center stage. To understand this, we must first acknowledge the unique factor setting this cycle apart: spot Bitcoin ETFs.  As discussed earlier, some believe these ETFs are hindering the rotation into altcoins, as investors cannot easily switch from ETFs to altcoins, at least in theory. However, some investors may be cashing out their ETF gains and moving their funds to cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase, where they can invest in altcoins. 

The catch is that most investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs are not your average retail investors but seasoned institutional investors. These institutional investors, also known as TradFi whales, have a significant influence on the market. As a result, their preferences for alternative cryptocurrencies may diverge from those of the typical crypto enthusiast. Notably, there has been substantial institutional interest in SOL, which could explain its outperformance compared to BTC. 

However, the crypto market is not solely composed of institutional investors. There are two other types of crypto investors: crypto whales and retail investors. Crypto whales, which are large holders of cryptocurrencies, have been the primary influencers in the crypto market so far. Their shift from Bitcoin to alternative coins has led to past cycles in altcoins, while retail investors have pushed these coins to their peak values. Put simply, the crypto market has not lost anything. It has merely introduced a new main character, figuratively speaking. 

The lack of an alt season is not caused by the introduction of ETFs but rather by the actions of crypto whales and retail investors. The analysts at Coinbureau suggest that these crypto whales are not shifting their investments or rotating into altcoins because there currently needs to be more retail investors interested in purchasing them.

Source: Crypto Max on X

Numerous indicators suggest that retail investors are gradually becoming more interested in cryptocurrency despite their limited participation in the current market upswing. This is evidenced by increased retail trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the growing popularity of crypto exchange apps, rising search volumes for crypto-related terms, and heightened social media engagement with crypto content. However, these metrics have not reached the levels indicating a massive influx of new retail investors into the cryptocurrency market.

The crucial factor here is the influx of new retail investors. While millions of retail investors from previous cycles are still active or returning, we need to see more new entrants into the market. This is a significant concern, as altcoins rely heavily on new investors to drive their growth and create upward momentum. As a retail investor, you can influence the altcoin season. There need to be marginal buyers.

As Coinbureau states, “We need new people for our altcoin bags to pump, probably because most of us have already allocated as much as we can to our favorite coins and tokens. In the absence of these new people, there's not that much for us to do except speculate on memecoins, and it's quite possible that the memecoin pumps we've seen have been coordinated by the crypto whales. They probably know that the only retail investors around right now are experienced enough to use DEXs.” 

The Onset of Altcoin Season

After analyzing the delay in the arrival of altcoin season, the next question is when we can expect it to begin. The straightforward answer is that it will start when a sufficient number of retail investors take notice. This will prompt crypto whales to shift their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins that retail investors will then eagerly buy into, leading to a chain reaction of FOMO (fear of missing out). However, a more in-depth analysis, which necessitates a look back at the previous cycle, reveals a more intricate scenario. Most of us envision the upcoming altcoin season as a repeat of the last cycle, but the reality may be more complex. 

The issue lies in the significant differences observed in the previous cycle. Due to a worldwide pandemic, billions of individuals were confined to their homes while a few hundred million received a stimulus payment, providing them additional funds. These events led to widespread speculation in both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Today, the situation is starkly contrasted as interest rates across various nations are at their highest levels in years. Unofficial inflation rates are soaring in most countries, reaching double digits. Several countries are experiencing or nearing recession.

Above all, most individuals are reportedly accumulating unprecedented levels of debt to maintain their standard of living. This trend starkly contrasts with the circumstances observed during the previous alt season. A positive aspect is that the prolonged persistence of these conditions may prompt governments and central banks to provide comparable forms of economic support, never mind the possibility of an existential shock. 

This means that there will likely come a time when economic conditions mirror those seen during the pandemic, with similar fiscal and monetary support levels. The exact timing is uncertain, but it may take a significant event to prompt such action. Identical to past patterns, this could cause a brief decline in cryptocurrency and other asset values, followed by a stabilization period and a sharp price increase as the stimulus takes effect.

If the current state of the market persists, altcoins may suffer under unfavorable circumstances. If trends continue, including high interest rates, rising inflation, recurring recessions, and mounting retail debt, the subsequent altcoin season may fall short of expectations. It's essential to recognize that the cryptocurrency market has undergone significant changes since the previous cycle, with factors beyond spot Bitcoin ETFs contributing to its evolution. 

Regulations in the US, UK, and other countries have made it more difficult for retail investors to reach offshore trading platforms where highly speculative altcoins are traded. The upcoming EU stablecoins regulations are anticipated to impact the cryptocurrency market significantly. It has been announced that USD stablecoins will no longer be allowed in the EU by the end of the year, potentially reducing the options for retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies.

Identifying the Arrival of Altcoin Season

To determine the onset of the altcoin season, keep a close eye on several key indicators. These include retail trading volume, the popularity of crypto exchange apps, Google searches, and social media views related to cryptocurrency. When you observe a steady increase in these metrics, alt season is likely imminent. Interestingly, there are signs that this trend may already be underway. For instance, search queries related to buying cryptocurrency have started to rise after years of stagnation, although they still have a long way to go before reaching their previous peak.

Source: Google Trends

The current market dynamics are making it challenging to determine whether we are witnessing the inception of a new alt season or a fleeting speculative surge. A valuable approach to shed light on this puzzle is examining how cryptocurrency projects promote themselves, specifically during periods of heightened attention. A typical pattern among cryptocurrency projects is to unveil significant announcements when public interest is at its peak.

There have been instances where crypto projects have postponed significant updates and announcements due to a lack of interest from retail investors. Despite this, numerous crypto projects have been making notable announcements, which could suggest the beginning of a new altcoin season. However, these announcements have not resulted in significant speculative buying, indicating that retail investors remain scarce.

Source: CoinMarketCal

As the popularity of cryptocurrency projects grows, you may notice a surge in big announcements and subsequent price increases for their coins or tokens. This is often a sign that retail investors have entered the market. When these altcoin announcements start making headlines in mainstream news, it could indicate that the market is nearing its peak. 

Some of you have probably encountered additional key indicators, like inquiries from friends and family regarding the crypto market or, worse, seeking advice on investing in meme coins. However, these signals may not hold much weight unless individuals actively invest. Suppose widespread media coverage of altcoins is not leading to a substantial market increase, and your acquaintances are not showing significant interest. In that case, it may not truly be an alt season. 

A possible indicator of an impending alt season is to evaluate whether these signs are present when, based on historical patterns, an altcoin season would be expected to occur from a cycle perspective. However, this can be difficult to determine as the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has disrupted the typical cycle. For reference, the current phase of the cycle should resemble the early 2020 period, characterized by gradually increasing prices followed by a sudden crash triggered by an unexpected event before ultimately continuing their upward trend.

It's worth considering that our timeline may be advancing at an accelerated pace. Specifically, we could be closer to the late 2020 stage of the crypto market cycle, irrespective of the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. With two completed crypto cycles (2017 and 2021) under their belts, millions of individuals are now familiar with the narrative and its subsequent developments.

Source: Bitcoin News on X

The impact is that we won't have to wait 12 months for the altcoin season to begin like we did in 2020. Instead, it could start in just a few months. However, this is based on the assumption that we're on an accelerated timeline. It's possible that cryptocurrency is still following the same schedule, which means we might be ahead of schedule for alt season.

Which Altcoins Should Be Monitored

Which altcoins should you watch this season? I concur with Coinbureau that it might be ideal to start building up your portfolio if we are in the early stages of the altcoin season. However, it's essential to note that this is not financial advice, and it's equally possible it's not the best time to do so.

Coinbureau analysts suggest that the altcoins you must watch this season will be the most accessible to retail investors.  As mentioned earlier, EU regulations and, consequently, the structure of the crypto market will ensure that most retail investing will take place on onshore exchanges like Coinbase. In light of this potential scenario, focusing on altcoins listed on Coinbase may be prudent.

This is connected to a previous point about market capitalization. The higher the market cap, the lower the risk and the potential reward. The smaller the market cap, the bigger the risk, but the bigger the reward. Selecting a cryptocurrency with a lower price tag may also be advantageous. Many individual investors assume that a lower price indicates the possibility of more significant price increases, but the market cap is the most important. Therefore, by choosing a low price and market cap cryptocurrency, you can establish some solid fundamentals, often referred to by some influencers as "pumpamentals."

While being listed on Coinbase and having a low price point and market capitalization can benefit an altcoin, more is needed to guarantee success. For an altcoin to truly thrive, it must fit into a broader, bullish narrative that resonates with the average retail investor. This article explores the dominant narratives likely to drive the next bull market.

Image: Markethive.com

Researching the tokenomics of the crypto you want to invest in is vital to ensure it is genuine and has maximum potential. This involves examining the future circulation of coins or tokens, as you wouldn't want to invest in a promising altcoin only to face a sudden sell-off by the developers and their venture capital supporters. Also, you need to select a smart contract cryptocurrency on which the most promising tokens are trading. 

Image: Cointelegraph

It is essential to understand that holding onto a promising altcoin for a longer term could be beneficial if you enter the market at the right time. Numerous cryptocurrency enthusiasts can confirm that they would have been equally successful today if they had kept their altcoins during the market downturn. Cryptocurrency, at its core, is designed to revolutionize various systems, so it's important to have a long-term perspective on your investments.

Although many of these systems and their associated projects may fail, a few will endure. The ones that survive have the potential to become extremely valuable, possibly even worth trillions of dollars in the future, much like Bitcoin, which is currently valued at over $1 trillion. It is crucial to note that BTC boasts the lengthiest and most proven track record among all coins and tokens, rendering it the most secure cryptocurrency to retain in comparison.

Other cryptos will more than likely someday achieve the same safe haven status as BTC, so considering all the key indicators along with a crypto’s community, utility and purpose, ecosystem, and solutions it offers in the spectrum, it shouldn’t be too hard to work out which ones to watch out for. For that large-cap security, you might want to consider investing in the original cryptocurrency that has the potential to become the global reserve currency. 

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Tim Moseley

The Dynamic Crypto Industry Building A Bitcoin-Backed Monetary System. Consider Banks Without Bankers 

One of the main advantages of cryptocurrency is the independence it offers by enabling individuals to become their own bank. With cryptocurrency, you have complete control and ownership of your assets, whereas traditional banks have technical ownership over the assets you store with them. While the concept of being your own bank is impressive, critics argue that specialized crypto banks may be necessary for crypto to compete effectively with the established financial system.

This article summarizes a report outlining a method for establishing financial institutions without the need for traditional bankers. This method utilizes Bitcoin to achieve this goal, and the approach aligns with the broader aim of revolutionizing the financial sector by harnessing the power of cryptocurrency to replace the existing flawed monetary system. 

Banks Without Bankers Prioritizing User Agency

Today's summary is of a report called "Banks without Bankers," released by AxiomBTC, a venture capital firm focused on Bitcoin. The report starts with a powerful quote from Hal Finney, a pioneering Bitcoin developer who received the first Bitcoin transaction.  In the quote, Hal Finney envisions a future where BTC is crucial in reshaping the banking system. 

Source: Axiom.BTC

In the report authored by Eric Yakes, he explores two potential outcomes for the future of Bitcoin. On one end of the spectrum, all BTC could be held in custody by third parties like banks, with individuals trading receipts instead. This is similar to the historical concept of fiat money, representing a gold claim held by a bank. On the other end of the spectrum, Bitcoin could become a widely-used medium of exchange, with individuals directly transacting with each other and BTC effectively replacing money and its associated functions.

The idea presented is impractical due to several factors. Bitcoin faces limitations in scaling at its core level and is missing the necessary smart contract capabilities for sophisticated financial operations. Similarly, the scenario where all BTC is held in custody is not feasible because some BTC holders prefer to maintain control over their cryptocurrency assets through self-custody and peer-to-peer transactions. Therefore, it can be reasoned that the future of Bitcoin lies in a balance between custody services and individual self-custody practices.

Eric points out in the report that advancing technologies in the Bitcoin sector will allow for striking this balance carefully, emphasizing prioritizing greater peer-to-peer interactions. This approach is logical, as Bitcoin was initially designed to distance itself from traditional financial institutions like banks. In other words, the primary goal of Bitcoin was to remove the reliance on third parties to safeguard assets, hence the inherent trustless quality of cryptocurrency.

Eric contends that not all trust is misplaced, as it's crucial to place confidence in the right individuals and ensure their motivations align. He reinforces this notion by highlighting evolutionary biology findings emphasizing communities' importance in survival and reproduction. He then draws parallels between these findings and the contemporary financial system, where community-oriented banks are less likely to fail.

Eric believes that community banks are restricted by their geographical reach, meaning those nearby can only access their benefits. This limitation stems from the physical constraints of the world. In contrast, the digital realm knows no boundaries or distances. Eric suggests that with the appropriate technology, Bitcoin could enable the establishment of a digital community bank that transcends geographical limitations.

A critical technological component is multi-signature (mult-sig) wallets, which enable multiple individuals to manage a single Bitcoin wallet. In essence, multi-sig wallets enable the creation of conditions that allow this shared wallet to spend BTC. This technology allows the establishment of a ‘federation,’ which Eric defines as a system where “multiple participants hold keys that are useless in isolation, but can be combined to produce a signature that is required to make a transaction.” 

Source: https://fedimint.org/

Fedimint: A Decentralized Solution

The first part of the report introduces a federated network called Fedimint. It’s designed to address issues related to trust in third parties and the complexities of self-custody. The concept is to rely on your community for trust rather than depending on external entities or solely yourself for technical matters of self-custody. A combination of four underlying technologies powers Fedimint;

1. Federations can be considered a collection of reliable, trusted nodes that work together to operate a network. These nodes are responsible for maintaining the integrity of the system. 
2. Multi-sig wallets, as previously mentioned above.
3. A privacy-preserving digital currency called eCash which is backed by BTC.
4. The Lightning Network: (LN) A layer two protocol on the Bitcoin Network.

At the protocol level, Fedimint consists of four participants; 

1. Users who can mint, redeem, and transfer eCash. 
2. Guardians that function as nodes on the network and facilitate the minting, redemption, and transfer of eCash.
3. Gateways that can be simply understood as nodes that make eCash transferable on the Lightning Network. 
4. Modules, which are the applications on Fedimint. 

Each Fedimint system has three built-in modules: BTC, eCash, and a connector for integrating with the Lightning Network. Users can expand the functionality of their Fediment system by adding extra modules like eCash payments and advanced eCash exchanges. Fedimint networks have the potential to function as virtual community banks, operate independently, and manage financial transactions without traditional bankers. The community-driven infrastructure allows seamless interaction with other Bitcoin-based Fedimint networks.

Source: Bitcoin magazine

Eric explores an alternative method in which Bitcoin could replace traditional banks, this time through utilizing a different protocol known as Cashu. Like Fedimint, Cashu utilizes a privacy-preserving eCash supported by Bitcoin, crypto’s store of value. However, Cashu is notably more centralized, operating on a single server. The trade-off is that the centralized aspect allows for efficient monitoring of the eCash circulation without jeopardizing user privacy, which contrasts with the challenge faced by Fedimints, where tracking the supply of eCash is hindered by its inherent privacy features.

Money and e-Cash

In the second part of the report, Eric asserts that a single form of money will eventually become the universal standard for transactions. He argues, “In theory, market participants converge upon a monetary standard. In a perfect world, there would only be one form of money. Yet, throughout history, this has never been the case.” Eric provides three explanations for the historical absence of a singular form of money.

The first is opacity or the general lack of information about other currencies available to the average person. Another reason is governments' desire to control their own currencies, a concept called sovereign coercion. The third factor to consider is the trade-offs associated with money. For instance, in today's world, real estate is often viewed as a more reliable store of value compared to the US dollar, as explained by Eric. 

For reference, the concept of money refers to a medium that holds value, while currency is a means of exchange used to purchase goods and services. This video clarifies the distinction between the two, highlighting how they were once equivalent when backed by gold. However, once currency was no longer tied to gold, it lost its value as a form of money. Despite this shift, we continue to operate under the belief that we are working for money through indoctrination, both explicitly and implicitly. 

Eric explains we are not out of the woods regarding BTC being the complete solution to this problem. He notes that although BTC addresses numerous obstacles that have previously hindered the widespread adoption of a single currency, it faces its own obstacles regarding scalability (speed) and privacy. The Lightning Network is a potential remedy for Bitcoin's scalability issue, while eCash is a solution for enhancing Bitcoin's privacy.

The report recognizes that while each of these solutions has its own obstacles, they may still effectively address the issue. However, eCash's success in creating viable money markets depends on its ability to gain widespread acceptance and adoption. Without delving into complex details, this process would entail individuals or organizations with substantial financial resources engaging in arbitrage activities between various eCash systems, stabilizing their value relative to the underlying BTC. This positive feedback loop would boost eCash adoption, fostering more precise pricing, increased market-making, and further adoption. The cycle would repeat, driving up the use and reliance on eCash while maintaining a consistent global value.

Source: Axiom.BTC

The Potential Risks Of An eCash System

The report's third section highlights the potential risks involved with the eCash system, which is built on Bitcoin (BTC) and utilizes the Lightning Network and Fedimint technology. Eric explains that eCash is designed to be minted and redeemed for BTC on the Bitcoin blockchain or BTC on the Lightning Network using a Fedimint Network. This system should ensure that all types of eCash issued by different Fedimint networks are interchangeable and hold equal value. In other words, eCash minted for BTC using one Fedimint network's lightning Network BTC can be redeemed for Layer One BTC at another Fedimint network.

While Fedimints offers the benefit of privacy for eCash transactions, there is a potential drawback. Specifically, Fedimints can generate more eCash than the amount of BTC that backs it, which could result in an imbalance in the system. For instance, one Fedimint network might produce ten times more eCash than others, causing users to claim a disproportionate amount of BTC from other Fedimints. This issue arises because eCash is entirely private, making it difficult to keep track of the total amount in circulation. This issue is mitigated by using Cashu, which maintains a record of circulating eCash and ensures that BTC always backs it.

Now, there's already a precedent for how to solve this problem. It's called free banking, which is banking before central banks existed. In the free banking era, banks could issue currency at their own discretion. In theory, this currency was backed by gold; in practice, it wasn't always. Unfortunately, this led to a situation where customers were not always aware of the actual value of the currency they were using, as they were at the mercy of the banks' honesty. This information imbalance between banks and their customers can be compared to the privacy aspects of eCash issued by Fedimints, where the issuing authority can access more information than the users.

Source: AreaBitcoin

The caveat is that free banks did not have a widespread relationship with all individuals. Only a select few were privy to the financial workings of the free banks, and these were often the first to withdraw their funds before the system collapsed. The report highlights three such groups: competitors, brokers, and clearing houses. Eric suggests similar participants could provide comparable assurances in a decentralized eCash system. This could include entities such as Fedimints, Lightning Network gateways, eCash brokers, and even speculators who wager against unreliable Fedimints. The most crucial participant that could be introduced to an eCash system would be one capable of furnishing proof of reserves.

Those who have been involved in the crypto space since the downfall of FTX will be familiar with the emphasis placed on proof-of-reserves by exchanges aiming to enhance credibility. However, it's important to note that proof-of-reserves alone does not provide insight into a crypto exchange's obligations or debts. This means that an exchange could show evidence of holding $1 billion in BTC for its users who have deposited the same amount while simultaneously being $2 billion in debt, a detail unknown to users.

However, in an eCash system, the concept of liabilities doesn't apply in the traditional sense, as all eCash in circulation is supported by BTC held in a multi-signature wallet. The existence of this BTC collateral ensures the legitimacy of eCash minted by a Fediment, making it unnecessary to worry about liabilities.

Proof Of Liabilities

The fourth section of the report focuses on proof of liabilities. In this context, it alludes to the Cashu-created method for preserving the privacy of eCash users while monitoring the digital currency in circulation. Cashu's proof of liabilities protocol relies on three deliberate steps, which are crucial for its effectiveness.

1. To publicly commit to regularly rotating its eCash private keys over a predetermined period (“epoch”). This allows all eCash in circulation to recycle from old epochs to the current epoch.
2. Produce a publicly auditable list of all issued eCash tokens in the form of mint proofs.
3. Produce a publicly auditable list of all redeemed eCash tokens in the form of burn proofs.

A system with these properties can ensure that Fedimint users can verify whether a mint has issued unbacked eCash during a previous epoch. This system sets an expiration date on user eCash, which prompts users to update their eCash to the latest epoch. The expiration of eCash compels users (through automated processes in their wallet software) to take actions that will lead to the mint disclosing past eCash issuance and redemptions.

The intriguing aspect is that the periodic alteration of eCash private keys is designed to mimic a bank run on the Fedimint. If the Fedimint is unable to modify the private keys used for eCash minting, it suggests that the eCash they've issued is not supported by the BTC reserves they claim.

In the fifth section of the report, Eric examines the possibility of a Bitcoin eCash system being impervious to political influence, provided that there is a sufficient number of decentralized financial networks, known as Fedimint networks. The report speculates that up to 10 million digital community banks could be in the future. Additionally, the report highlights that Fedimint networks are also resistant to politics because they are currently exempt from financial regulations but admit that this could change. If you’ve followed the crypto regulation saga, you would know that the authorities’ goal is ending all custodial crypto. 

The sixth section of the report analyzes why Bitcoin and the Lightning Network are deemed inadequate. The report then shifts its focus back to comparing free banking with the eCash system in the seventh section. The risks associated with each system are highlighted in a diagram presented below.

Source: Axiom.BTC

The report then discusses the potential for Fedimints to start practicing fractional reserve banking. For those unfamiliar with the concept, fractional reserve banking refers to retaining only a portion of the funds backing a currency in circulation. Most financial institutions worldwide maintain a reserve requirement of less than 30%, meaning they must hold 30 cents for every dollar they have issued.

Significantly, the Federal Reserve eliminated all reserve requirements for American banks at the onset of the pandemic and has seemingly yet to reinstate them. Eric highlights that this has raised concerns that Fedimint networks may begin operating like fractional reserve banks, meaning they would issue more eCash than BTC in reserve. However, competition among Fedimints is believed to help mitigate this risk, with those maintaining full reserves coming out on top.

Emerging Technologies

In the latter section of the report, the discussion revolves around new technologies that can bring the eCash concept to life. Eric highlights a novel protocol named Ark, currently in its conceptual phase and can be viewed as a mixing service and an onboarding mechanism that minimizes on-chain activity. Like the Lightning Network (LN) has LSPs, Ark will have Ark Service Providers (ASPs). This is a solution to the onboarding problem and a trustless custodial solution.

Interestingly, Ark's main limitation is that it can only support up to 10.5 million BTC due to technical reasons outlined in the report. Despite this, Eric believes this inherent restriction could be advantageous in the long run. The main point to remember is that Ark has the potential to overcome the technical challenges faced by the eCash system. As noted by Eric, “The Arc protocol could provide the necessary infrastructure for a trustless free banking system of service providers to emerge, removing agency from fundamental economic functions.” 

Next, Eric synthesizes the information in the concluding section of the report, presenting a comprehensive overview as follows:

“Imagine a system where users dollar-cost-average into Bitcoin via Ark, use federated technology for custody, use eCash as the private cash balance for everyday transactions, and on the backend, all service providers are clearing balances between one another via the Lightning Network. Fedimints and ASPs could act as banking infrastructure, and the LN could act as the clearing houses amongst them as a hub and spoke model.”

In essence, it is a monetary framework of decentralized, community-owned, and operated digital Bitcoin banks.

What It Means For BTC

The potential impact on Bitcoin (BTC) is significant, assuming the implementation of the eCash system as described. Such a system would generate substantial demand for BTC, thereby boosting its value. In essence, the eCash aspect of this alternative financial system would serve as a powerful catalyst for BTC's growth.

The more significant concern is how this trend might impact both the financial system and your personal financial autonomy. It's important to remember that economic freedom doesn't equate to having a large sum of money. Instead, it means having the flexibility and control to make choices about your money whenever you see fit. Unfortunately, this level of autonomy is becoming increasingly scarce in traditional financial circles.

As previously stated, having a large sum of money in your bank account may hold little value if you cannot use it. When encountering someone with significant wealth, inquire about the challenges of managing such funds. The process of transferring large sums of money is complex and increasingly so. This difficulty may be attributed to the fractional reserve banking system's ongoing trend towards extreme fractionalization. Put simply, banks are putting up hurdles that make it harder to move your money around because the cash you have there doesn't even really exist. 

The banking crisis from last year highlighted how convenient it is to transfer money in today's world. In the past, customers would have to physically line up at the bank to withdraw their money in the event of a problem, which is the classical definition of a bank run. Nowadays, all you need to do is click a button, which is a big problem for banks. 

In any case, the growing sentiment globally is towards a financial framework that enables individuals to possess their assets and maintain their financial autonomy. The system examined in this report may or may not be the ultimate answer, but it's undoubtedly a move in the right direction toward a future where such a system will be imperative.

Image: Markethive Wallet

On The Right Side Of History

Markethive is also on the right side of history regarding financial sovereignty and keeping the entrepreneurial spirit alive. It is a domain where the individual can thrive in an expanding community of critical thinkers who uphold liberty and free expression, prioritize financial autonomy, and foster an environment where ingenuity and independence can flourish. These aspiring and seasoned entrepreneurs alike reject the constraints established financial systems impose and embrace the potential of decentralized technology. 

In response to the autocracy of governments and mega-corporations on a global level, Markethive has developed its own comprehensive financial accounting hub that can be likened to a bank. This system provides users with a secure platform for financial transactions, including merchant accounts, free from the risk of account closure or seizure by authorities seeking to restrict freedom of expression for any reason.

Markethive’s evolution will include multiple sovereign servers to avoid being censured or shut down and a dynamic and innovative crypto exchange that leverages the platform's unique strengths, including innovative inbound marketing strategies, blogcasting capabilities, dynamic social engagement, and community-driven support. These endeavors are a natural progression for Markethive, allowing it to expand its reach and provide users with a seamless trading experience that integrates the platform's proven features.

With divine guidance, we will resist the oppressive totalitarian regimes that seek to subjugate humanity. Despite the power wielded by the elite, tech titans, government, and mega-corporations, a higher authority exists that eludes their control. The discerning individual cannot help but perceive the larger forces at play.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Tim Moseley

Trad-Fi Wants To Dominate Crypto. Is It succeeding? What Does It Mean For Crypto?

Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, is a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency industry and is known for his unwavering belief in its potential to revolutionize the financial system, much like Markethive. Throughout the years, I have documented the evolution of Cardano creator Charles Hoskinson's efforts in developing the Cardano protocol and his humanitarian quest. 

In a recent video, Hoskinson expressed his concern that the traditional financial system is slowly but surely taking over the crypto industry, a notion that has sparked a heated debate among experts. While cryptocurrency's original intention was to supplant traditional financial systems, some fear that if it continues on its current path, it may ultimately become even more dystopian than any central bank digital currency.

In a live video broadcast on February 13, 2024, Charles passionately shared his thoughts on the intersection of legacy finance and the crypto world, titled "Legacy is Eating Crypto." This article summarizes Charles' insights, supplemented by perspectives from Coin Bureau's crypto experts. We will also explore ways in which the crypto industry can safeguard itself from being overtaken by traditional financial institutions, commonly referred to as "Trad-Fi."

Stablecoins

Charles started by mentioning that he has been discussing the significance of decentralized algorithmic stablecoins in various recent interviews and how they differ from centralized asset-backed stablecoins, which he believes could threaten the cryptocurrency industry. 

A stablecoin that relies on algorithms to maintain its value relative to a traditional currency is known as an algorithmic stablecoin. The most well-known example of such a stablecoin is Terra's UST, which suffered a collapse around May of 2022. However, Charles had a different type of algorithmic stablecoin in mind; he was referring to a stablecoin that is backed by another cryptocurrency, such as MakerDAO’s DAI, which can be minted by locking up another crypto as collateral, such as ETH. 

The issue is that DAI may not be genuinely decentralized anymore, as it is now primarily backed by centralized assets. This makes it similar to other centralized stablecoins, such as Circle’s USDC and USDT, which Charles categorizes as asset-backed. Like USDC and USDT, DAI's value is supported by real-world assets, specifically US government debt and US dollars, which are susceptible to seizure.

For context, Charles shared some key facts. Firstly, he mentioned that centralized stablecoins constitute approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. While this may not seem significant initially, it becomes notable when considering the second statistic: about 70% of all cryptocurrency transaction volume involves a centralized stablecoin. Charles emphasized that centralized stablecoins such as USDC and USDT are minted and redeemed by centralized companies that are typically subject to strict regulations. He explained that while these regulations are not inherently harmful, they imply that these entities are under government oversight, unlike cryptocurrencies.

Moreover, these entities are restricted in their ability to drive innovation in stablecoins, as they must operate within the boundaries of regulatory compliance. Additionally, they cannot issue stablecoins in a fractionalized manner, meaning that an equivalent value of US dollars or bonds must fully back each stablecoin in circulation. This poses a significant challenge, as it enables centralized stablecoin issuers to potentially influence the outcome of a hard fork by deciding which chain becomes the dominant one.

Source: Investopedia

In other words, they would have to select which chain to transfer all their stablecoins to, as doubling the supply isn't an option. Interestingly, Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum, acknowledged this reality in 2022. He opined that Circle, the issuer of USDC, could dictate which chain emerges victorious in the event of an Ethereum fork.  It is worth mentioning that Cardano is not exposed to this threat since it does not currently support any centralized stablecoins. 

Bitcoin ETFs

Charles then pointed out the possibility of centralized stablecoin issuers implementing KYC at the blockchain level. He also highlighted criticisms regarding the absence of centralized stablecoins on the Cardano blockchain. Charles emphasized that those advocating for centralized stablecoins on Cardano without considering the associated risks are solely focused on increasing the value of the ADA token.  He also drew parallels to the situation with spot Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting that these ETFs now hold over 200,000 BTC valued at over $10 billion, and argued that asset managers operating these ETFs wield a similar level of influence over Bitcoin as Circle does over select smart contract cryptocurrencies.

This stance is both intriguing and controversial. On the one hand, it suggests that the forecast about Circle's rise to prominence in cryptocurrency is materializing. On the other hand, there is room for debate as asserting control over Bitcoin involves more than just influencing its price.  While Charles posits that the growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs could allow them to control Bitcoin in the event of a fork, this argument is not without its critics. Some argue that controlling Bitcoin requires more than just price manipulation. However, Charles suggested that with the ongoing absorption of BTC by spot Bitcoin ETFs, there is a possibility for these entities to amass enough control to potentially dominate Bitcoin in case of a fork.

For reference, in its ETF filing, BlackRock clearly mentioned that it would decide which Bitcoin fork to back in the event of one. Consider a situation where Bitcoin splits into proof-of-stake and proof-of-work networks. The likelihood is high that BlackRock and other asset managers would choose to support the proof-of-stake fork because their significant BTC holdings would essentially give them control over the new Bitcoin blockchain through their spot ETFs.

The irony is that ESG-obsessed asset managers are more concerned about the government's control over Bitcoin rather than its environmental impact. While proof of stake is praised for its eco-friendliness, the control aspect truly holds significance. Moreover, asset managers like BlackRock could offload their proof-of-work BTC holdings after a fork, causing the price to plummet and making it unprofitable for miners to continue validating transactions. This could ultimately lead to the demise of the proof-of-work chain.

Source: Coinmarketcap

Charles emphasized that the dominance in the crypto industry lies not only with stablecoin issuers and asset managers but also with centralized exchanges where the top three control the majority of trading volume. According to Charles, there are just ten entities that have the potential to control the crypto market.  However, considering Blackrock's partnership with Coinbase and its management of USDC's reserves, it's likely that the number of entities with such control is even smaller. Furthermore, Blackrock's influence extends to the US government, as evidenced by a recent lawsuit settlement with Binance granting it extensive oversight over the exchange.

In any event, Charles proceeded to make an intriguing statement, highlighting that if you ignore the advice of these organizations, they will not add your cryptocurrency to their list, and they will not introduce a stablecoin on your blockchain. This brings up the question of whether this is the reason Cardano lacks a centralized stablecoin – due to their unwillingness to adhere to such requirements.

Cardano

Charles noted that Cardano has successfully avoided being controlled by centralized stablecoin issuers and their associates, which has led to it being overlooked and undervalued. He pointed out an explicit prejudice against Cardano within certain industry circles. Charles reiterated that many in the Cardano community are growing impatient with ADA's price action and are “trying to invite the vampires in so that ADA's price will pump.” 

Charles expressed that it's not his place to make a decision, but he felt others needed to understand the implications of their choices. He emphasized that if vampires are allowed to enter, they will eventually hold power over everything related to Cardano. However, he also suggested that ADA could be delisted if it doesn't meet the standards of trad-fi-backed crypto elites. Charles stressed that every decision in crypto comes with a trade-off; nothing is free. He posed the question of whether the purpose of crypto is to perpetuate existing inequalities or to stop them.

He questioned whether the goal of cryptocurrency was to conform to the institutions responsible for economic disparity or to break free from their control. To emphasize his point, he noted that increasing centralization in crypto mirrors the corrupt financial system it seeks to challenge, encompassing centralized infrastructure, centralized exchanges, and centralized stablecoins. Eventually, there will be wallet-wide KYC and CBDC integrations. 

During a podcast with Bankless, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire indirectly acknowledged that Circle's USDC ultimately aims to evolve into a central bank digital currency (CBDC). As you may already know, CBDCs will give governments and central banks complete authority over individual saving and spending habits. In fact, some argue that stablecoin issuers already wield such power.

The end result of this shift towards centralization will be identical to the permission systems and de-platforming present in the financial sector today. One needs to look no further than the COVID-19 protests in Canada for proof of this. Protesters and their supporters found their bank accounts frozen. Charles emphasized that cryptocurrency will become inconsequential if it integrates with trad-fi and that they will do everything in their power to ensure that it does, whether by influencing regulations or using other means.

Finally, Charles explained that Satoshi Nakamoto's motivation for creating Bitcoin was a response to the extraordinary measures taken during the 2008 financial crisis and the concerning precedents they established. Satoshi believed that cryptocurrency could offer a unique alternative, but first, it's essential to recognize how it's still mirroring the same patterns as traditional finance. Unfortunately, Charles did not elaborate on how cryptocurrency could diverge from these patterns, whether through algorithmic stablecoins or other means, to avoid falling under the control of traditional financial systems.

Why BTC Could Be Unscathed

Thankfully, the task is relatively simple, although implementing it will be challenging and involve tradeoffs, as Charles pointed out. Your viewpoint will ultimately determine the approach. To elaborate, let's revisit the premise of Charles's video, which suggests that ‘legacy’ or trad-fi is ‘eating’ or integrating cryptocurrency rather than vice versa. Some believe that incorporating crypto, to some extent, is crucial for promoting awareness, acceptance, and progress in the field.

The current state of crypto privacy regulations is a prime illustration of this issue. Globally, regulations surrounding cryptocurrency are heavily leaned against privacy, with the supposed reasoning being that it creates an environment conducive to illicit financial activities. However, the true motivation behind this stance is that powerful financial institutions desire total visibility into all transactions, allowing them to maintain control over the economy and suppress any potential competition.

The main point is that these influential financial organizations' primary desire for privacy comes from them. This is evident in Blackrock's and other companies offering Bitcoin ETFs' decision to keep the wallets containing the BTC supporting their ETFs undisclosed. In contrast, Bitwise chose to reveal this information preemptively rather than waiting for blockchain analysts to uncover it. 

Consider the possibility that stablecoin payments will become widespread globally, thanks to the lobbying efforts of stablecoin issuers like Circle. It won't take long for individuals to realize that their stablecoin transactions and balances are transparent to everyone, which may raise concerns among trad-fi elites. Moreover, with central banks permitted to hold cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets starting from January 2025, there will likely be growing pressure on regulators to enhance privacy in the crypto space.

The rise in crypto privacy use will lead to the creation of additional privacy solutions. Cryptocurrency operates on universal principles, applying the same rules to all blockchain users. As long as this remains true, influential individuals and organizations will likely advocate for crypto values as they align with their self-interests.

If you are still in the process of being convinced, consider that various central banks globally are in the stages of creating their individual digital currencies. Given their ease of seizure or freezing, will these central banks rely on each other's digital currencies? The answer is no. Consequently, there'll be a significant need for a reliable, mutually accepted digital currency, especially as the world becomes increasingly geopolitically divided.

Coinbureau believes that Bitcoin's BTC is well-suited to serve this purpose and is currently used for trading by certain countries. Moreover, there are reports of countries engaging in Bitcoin mining activities. This could lead to a situation where nations using BTC for trade may compete in mining to maintain the neutrality of the Bitcoin blockchain. Fidelity, a different asset manager, has made a similar prediction.

This relates to Charles' assertions regarding asset managers' influence over Bitcoin through controlling its value. Recognizing that BTC's main advantage is its status as a trustworthy and impartial digital currency beyond anyone's control, it becomes clear that attempting to control Bitcoin would have negative consequences. To clarify, if Blackrock and other asset managers were to gain control of Bitcoin, its fundamental appeal would cease to exist.

The potential outcome of this situation is substantial funds being redirected to alternative assets, such as gold and other cryptocurrencies, which are beyond the control of asset managers. Notably, these outflows could potentially include investments in the proof-of-work BTC fork. It's important to remember that Blackrock's significant wealth and influence are largely predicated on the dominance of the US and its currency.

As explained in this article, the emergence of a new commodity cycle could potentially elevate the influence of the BRICS nations. Consider a scenario where one of these countries introduces a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the price of the proof-of-work version of Bitcoin derived from Blackrock's proof-of-stake fork. If this were to happen, it could attract tens of billions of dollars in investments.

Image: Markethive.com

How Crypto Strikes Back

This scenario is conjecture right now, and it is essential to take a broader view. This analysis considers long-term aspects and does not encompass the entire cryptocurrency market. In the shorter term, there is a possibility of integration between the rest of the crypto market and trad-fi in a manner that may present challenges. Small Blockers actually predicted this during the block size wars. 

Notably, trad-fi investors attempted to take control of Bitcoin by increasing its block size. However, they were unsuccessful in their efforts and shifted their focus to other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum. Since then, events have unfolded as predicted by proponents of Small Blockers. Essentially, if crypto aims to rival trad-fi in aspects like speed and cost, it will ultimately result in greater centralization, as it becomes a race to the bottom.

In the past ten years, we have witnessed a trend where each new generation of cryptocurrencies has become increasingly centralized. This has made them vulnerable to regulatory capture. As with Blackrock potentially controlling Bitcoin, centralized cryptos becoming subject to trad-fi regulations will essentially make them the same as existing traditional financial solutions, leading to decreased user adoption, with no one using them. Recognizing this risk, investors in these cryptocurrency projects are now shifting their focus toward achieving maximum decentralization.

Decentralization goes beyond just the quantity of nodes and validators. It encompasses the level of developer involvement in the blockchain, the dispersal of the coin or token, particularly in proof-of-stake blockchains, and even the infrastructure utilized by miners and validators, as detailed in this article.

The decentralized nature of cryptocurrency comes with inherent trade-offs, such as slower transaction speeds and higher costs. This brings us back to the root problem: that most crypto companies are attempting to compete with traditional finance in terms of cost and speed.  However, this has created a problematic trend towards centralization, which risks undermining the fundamental principles of decentralization that define cryptocurrency. If left unchecked, this race to the bottom could result in the most widely adopted cryptocurrency being managed by a single entity, such as the Federal Reserve. This outcome would be at odds with the vision of crypto enthusiasts, who seek to maintain the decentralized nature of cryptocurrency. So, what steps can be taken to address this issue?

As opined by Coinbureau, the solution is to let the crypto industry learn the importance of decentralization the hard way. As with most things in modern society, the only way you'll get change is with some kind of shock. In this case, it could be Circle deciding which Solana fork we could see in the future. It could be Tether freezing everyone's USDT holdings until they complete KYC. It could be Coinbase banning crypto transfers to and from personal wallets like many regulators want to do. It could be Blackrock’s spot Ethereum ETF taking control of Ethereum with all the ETH it will inevitably hold.

The average investor and user will likely realize the significance of decentralization in the crypto space only when confronted with situations that highlight its importance. As previously mentioned, this realization will also dawn on influential individuals and organizations. Subsequently, new cryptocurrencies that prioritize decentralization will emerge, hopefully without the need for a catalyzing event.

The cryptocurrency sector is anticipating potential threats and adapting accordingly. Early indicators of this trend include the emergence of decentralized privacy protocols and venture capitalists' financial support for algorithmic stablecoins. Initially, this may come as a surprise. Still, upon closer examination, it aligns with the motivations of major players like BlackRock, Coinbase, and Circle, who are ultimately driven by the desire to generate profits, just like many others in the cryptocurrency space. By investing in innovation, they will likely yield financial gains, which explains their support for pro-crypto regulations.

It's interesting to note that the institutions that have been perceived as obstacles to the growth of cryptocurrency are actually the ones that stand to benefit the most from its innovation. Governments, megabanks, and central banks are feeling the pressure of competition from crypto, and they are the ones hindering the progress of cryptocurrencies and working against it to maintain their power and control. It may seem far-fetched, but major players like Blackrock & Co. could be aligned with the interests of cryptocurrency enthusiasts in this battle despite their questionable reputation and difficulty in trusting them. Consider the potential profitability of displacing governments, megabanks, and central banks – it's food for thought.

Tim Moseley

The Next Crypto Bull Market Is At Hand. Ten Essential Tips For Investing In Cryptocurrency.

The recent green light for Bitcoin ETFs has thrust cryptocurrency back into the limelight, and with 2024 shaping up to be a pivotal year for the financial markets, many investors are pondering whether they should tap into the asset class that has delivered the most impressive returns over the past decade, as per Black Rock's analysis. 

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a notable milestone, giving a significant regulatory stamp of approval to the most prominent cryptocurrency in the world while also providing exposure to the rapidly growing crypto market. This development will likely alleviate some concerns investors may have had about investing in the space, making it more accessible and appealing to a broader range of investors.

Before diving into the world of cryptocurrency, there are ten essential tips to remember. This article aims to provide investors with valuable insights by highlighting ten critical factors to consider when investing in cryptocurrency.

Image source: ishares.com.pdf

Ten Key Tips To Know Before Investing In Crypto 

#1. Exchanges

First and foremost, it's important to understand the various types of exchanges, platforms, and products available that offer crypto. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recently gained popularity, providing crypto exposure and a secure and regulated way to invest in cryptocurrency. However, ETFs and similar products face three main issues. 

One concern is that their trading hours are limited to regular stock market hours, unlike the continuous 24/7 trading of cryptocurrencies. As a result, there may be discrepancies in pricing between the ETFs and the actual assets, as well as challenges in entering or exiting positions before significant price fluctuations occur.

Another issue is that they do not permit you to possess the actual asset outright. In cryptocurrency, taking custody of your own funds is typical among seasoned investors. While the self-custody approach may not suit everyone and carries its own set of risks, the advantage is that it removes the counterparty risk associated with ETFs.

The third issue is the limited availability of exchange-traded products that allow investors to invest in altcoins, which are cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. While some investors may be content with Bitcoin (BTC) exposure, others seek opportunities in alternative cryptocurrencies that offer the potential for significantly higher returns, ranging from 10 to 100 times.

Image source: Investopedia

#2. Volatility

Before investing in cryptocurrency, it's crucial to understand that prices can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably, especially for alternative coins. Price swings of 10% or more in a short period are common for Bitcoin, while altcoins can experience even more significant fluctuations, with price changes of 20% or more in minutes. This high level of volatility can be stressful and may lead to impulsive decisions based on emotions rather than sound investment strategies. Consequently, many investors tend to buy during strong market upswings and sell during sudden downturns.

Cryptocurrencies experience significant price fluctuations primarily due to their speculative nature. The main reason behind this volatility is that cryptocurrencies are designed to challenge and potentially replace traditional financial systems. Each crypto project aims to address specific aspects of the financial system. Tokens that provide real-world utility within a particular niche may be less speculative.

An additional factor that plays a role is the significant use of leverage trading within the cryptocurrency environment. During bearish periods, minor price declines can snowball into substantial crashes as leveraged traders are forced to liquidate their positions, while in bullish markets, small price increases can rapidly escalate into massive price surges as leveraged traders scramble to maintain their positions.

Fortunately, two strategies can help mitigate the impact of volatility in cryptocurrency trading. Firstly, investing in cryptocurrencies with a larger market cap can provide a lower-risk option, as they tend to experience less price fluctuation than smaller-cap cryptocurrencies. However, this stability comes at the cost of potentially lower returns. Secondly, traders can reduce their exposure to volatility by using less leverage or setting stop losses at prudent levels, informed by technical analysis. Being knowledgeable about chart patterns and trends can aid in making informed decisions.

#3. Categories of Cryptocurrencies

This relates to the third essential aspect to consider before investing in cryptocurrency. It is crucial to understand that not all cryptocurrencies are the same. Generally, there are two main categories of cryptocurrencies – coins and tokens. Coins are digital currencies utilized to cover transaction costs within their respective blockchain networks, like BTC within the Bitcoin blockchain. On the other hand, tokens are digital assets that can be created through smart contracts on specific cryptocurrency blockchains, such as Ethereum or Solana.

The value of coins is typically tied to the blockchain they are a part of. In contrast, tokens often derive value from their usefulness or utility within a specific decentralized application (dApp) or protocol. This distinction is noteworthy because coins tend to perform better than tokens in the cryptocurrency market, likely due to the greater level of effort and investment required to create a new blockchain from scratch.

It is possible for anyone to generate a cryptocurrency token quickly using specific decentralized applications. This has led to a proliferation of tokens, with millions available, while only a select few cryptocurrency coins have gained widespread recognition and utility. Most tokens lack practical use or value, whereas those that serve a purpose tend to exhibit more significant potential for success.

The success of a coin or token is ultimately determined by the narrative it's associated with. Take Bitcoin's BTC, for instance, which is widely regarded as the digital equivalent of gold. This narrative is just one of many that can impact price movements. This article delves into other significant narratives that can shape the performance of coins and tokens.

#4. Quality Information

Finding reliable information about cryptocurrency projects can be a significant challenge. This is due to a shortage of educational resources, the intricate nature of most crypto projects, and a general lack of information available. As a result, it can take time and effort to make informed investment decisions in the cryptocurrency market.

The lack of understanding surrounding cryptocurrency has led to significant financial losses for many investors. Many have sought to solve this issue through online publications and transparent crypto platforms’ blogs and videos, which aim to educate the public about the nature of cryptocurrency and the scams that have plagued the industry conceived by nefarious opportunists seeking to exploit others' ignorance.

Image source: Coinmarketcap

#5. Market Cap

Before investing in cryptocurrency, it's essential to understand the distinction between a crypto's market cap and its price. Many people assume that a crypto's price determines its potential for growth, but in reality, the market capitalization holds greater significance. Many first-time investors in the cryptocurrency market are unaware of this fact. Consequently, some cryptocurrencies with lower price tags tend to perform better than those with higher price tags. 

This is because new investors often assume that a low-priced cryptocurrency has more room for growth and will eventually reach the same level as Bitcoin, making them rich in the process. Practically speaking, it is essential to consider both the price tag, which is attractive to new and inexperienced investors, and the market cap, as it ultimately influences a cryptocurrency's potential increase or decrease in percentage terms.

You can gauge the potential growth of a coin or token by comparing it to more established cryptocurrencies within the same niche or category and observing their growth during previous market upswings. Setting realistic expectations and understanding that smaller-cap assets are unlikely to surpass the dominance of BTC or ETH in the foreseeable future is essential.

#6. Self Custody

Before investing in cryptocurrency, it's crucial to understand the importance of self-custody. In the crypto space, a famous saying goes, "Not your keys, not your crypto." This means that if you don't possess the private keys to your crypto wallet, you don't truly own the cryptocurrency inside it. Self-custody is crucial because it ensures that you have complete control over your digital assets and that they're securely stored in a wallet that only you can access.

So, if you're not given a 12 or 24-word seed phrase, also known as a private key, when creating an account and are required to copy and secure that key in a safe place, you're likely using a custodial service. In other words, your cryptocurrency is being held by a third party, similar to how a bank holds your money. Interestingly, the money in your bank doesn't technically belong to you either, as explained in this article.

It is essential to take control of your own cryptocurrency to achieve true financial independence, which means having the freedom to use your assets as you please and when you please. You need to establish a cryptocurrency wallet and consistently store the coins or tokens you are not currently trading in that wallet.

Cryptocurrency wallets come in various forms, including mobile, browser, and desktop versions. However, a hardware wallet is advised for optimal security, especially for significant crypto holdings. This physical device allows you to store your cryptocurrency offline, providing additional protection.

#7. Portfolio Diversification 

Creating a diversified crypto portfolio is an important consideration before investing in cryptocurrency. While all coins and tokens are part of the crypto market, it is essential to understand that they come with different levels of risk, rewards, and utility.

Bitcoin’s BTC is viewed as a secure investment haven within the cryptocurrency sector. During market downturns, investors often flock to BTC as a safe haven, causing its value to increase. On the other hand, when the markets are thriving, investors tend to move their funds from BTC into more speculative cryptos, starting with Ethereum (ETH) and then to other smaller cryptocurrencies down the list.

Furthermore, stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies supported by and pegged to traditional currencies, particularly the US dollar, are also considered safe options during times of turbulence in the cryptocurrency market. However, not all stablecoins are created equal, and some are considered safer than others due to their unique characteristics and uses.

A diversified cryptocurrency portfolio should include a mix of established large-cap assets, mid-sized coins with growth potential, and a few small-cap projects with promising futures. It's crucial to avoid over-investing in too many cryptocurrencies, as managing and tracking their performance can become challenging. Instead, focus on gaining exposure to a range of narratives that are likely to drive the next bull market in the crypto space.

Image source: Cwallet.com

#8. Time Horizon

Before investing in crypto, it's essential to consider your investment time frame, and this is closely related to the seventh factor. Cryptocurrency markets tend to fluctuate in a predictable four-year cycle, with the first one to two years typically experiencing a bull market, followed by a bear market during the final two to three years. Understanding this pattern can help you make informed investment decisions and maximize your returns.

These crypto cycles are believed to be influenced by the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs every four years and involves reducing the number of BTC coins given to Bitcoin miners by half. The next halving is anticipated to take place in April 2024.

The cryptocurrency market has traditionally experienced a significant upswing a few months following the halving event. If history is any guide, the next bull run is expected to begin around August or shortly after that, with Bitcoin and most alternative coins reaching new record highs during this time. However, it's important to note that the peak of this cycle may not occur until mid to late 2025, according to recent reports.

If you have been investing in cryptocurrencies before the market reaches its peak frenzy, you will likely see significant profits when it reaches its highest point. Surprisingly, you may not feel inclined to sell your holdings at that point.

As highlighted in the introduction, Crypto has emerged as the best-performing investment category in the past ten years. Retaining and building up significant amounts of well-known cryptocurrencies, such as BTC, during various market fluctuations would have yielded more significant profits than selling them.

This emphasizes that your personal time frame is the key consideration. If you aim for significant profits in the short term, it's advisable to align with the four-year pattern. Yet, if your goal is long-term wealth accumulation, it may be wiser to focus on steady accumulation without overanalyzing the process.

#9. HODL

The ninth key fact to consider before investing in cryptocurrency is that only two assets have consistently outperformed inflation over the past few decades: technology and finance. Notably, cryptocurrency represents a fusion of these two domains and boasts a unique advantage – it cannot be seized or confiscated. This attribute contributes to its value and potential for long-term growth.

This statement applies only to genuinely decentralized cryptocurrencies, as only those can uphold these characteristics. Bitcoin's BTC is considered the most decentralized cryptocurrency, serving as a safeguard or hedge against the entire existing financial system.

Considering the unpredictability of the financial system, it's a good idea to diversify your investments and protect your wealth in case of uncertainty. One way to do this is by investing in an asset that can't be easily seized, such as Bitcoin. Unlike gold, which requires physical storage and security, Bitcoin can be readily stored and transferred using just a seed phrase, which can be memorized for added convenience.

It’s salient to note here that every Bitcoin transaction is recorded on a public ledger and, therefore, is traceable. This transparency can concern individuals who want to distance themselves from the traditional financial system. However, despite this limitation, Bitcoin remains a viable alternative to conventional currencies, apart from gold, particularly for those who value freedom and decentralization.

For emphasis, the notion that central banks aspire to establish a financial system characterized by universal surveillance and control is not a far-fetched conspiracy theory. In fact, various reports have been published explicitly outlining such intentions. This system would enable comprehensive monitoring of all assets, ensuring that every item of value is accounted for and exists within a network that central authorities govern.

In any case, while it may be thrilling to consider the potential earnings in cryptocurrency, it's crucial to bear in mind that preserving these funds could prove challenging if the financial landscape follows its current path. Securing a portion of these profits in a tangible asset for long-term stability is prudent.

Image source: X

#10. Scams

It is crucial to be aware that the world of cryptocurrency investing is rife with scams. The various factors discussed earlier create an environment where misinformation about crypto is prevalent and highly persuasive. Deceptive practices can take the form of fraudulent airdrops and giveaways, with the latter becoming increasingly widespread due to advancements in deep fake technology.

Fraudulent accounts posing as well-known figures in the cryptocurrency space are widespread during periods of market growth. Trying to report or remove all of their comments is futile, and it's crucial to exercise caution when engaging with unsolicited messages or investment opportunities. 

A general guideline is to be cautious of offers that seem too good to be true because they likely are. Additionally, any direct message claiming to be from a prominent crypto personality should be met with skepticism. When interacting with decentralized applications and protocols, it's essential to do your due diligence to avoid losing funds. Finally, storing any coins or tokens not currently being traded on a secure hardware wallet is vital to protect them from potential threats.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Tim Moseley

Which Crypto Narratives Will Dominate The Next Bull Market? Cryptos To Watch In 2024

The key to achieving success in the cryptocurrency realm is to invest in narratives, not just statistics. During the previous bull market, the most captivating narratives were Decentralized Finance (DeFi), Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), and the Metaverse. These narratives propelled certain cryptocurrencies to astronomical heights, with some experiencing growth of over 500 times their original value. The question now is what narratives will dominate the next crypto bull market and when they will experience a similar explosion in growth.

These projections are provided by key figures in the cryptocurrency industry and should be taken as speculative. This article focuses on the key narratives likely to shape the cryptocurrency landscape, their anticipated increase in popularity, and the projects linked to them that are worth keeping an eye on. The ongoing development of crypto regulations will largely influence the sequence in which these narratives gain prominence.

The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) was a dominant force in the 2020 crypto bull market, with DeFi tokens experiencing remarkable growth, including Yearn Finance's YFI token, which at one point surpassed the value of Bitcoin. However, recent regulatory proposals aimed at DeFi suggest it may not be the dominant narrative in the current market cycle. Instead, other crypto narratives with fewer DeFi elements may gain more traction.

The success of crypto narratives may depend on the regulatory landscape, but some experts suggest that those with minimal DeFi integrations will have an advantage. This is because they will face fewer regulatory obstacles and enjoy greater adoption. Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are the crypto technology with the least regulatory scrutiny, making it likely that narratives centered around NFTs will dominate.

Crypto Narratives Most Likely To Explode

Decentralized Social Media

The rise of decentralized social media (DESO) is anticipated to gain significant traction thanks to a convergence of factors. Growing censorship on traditional social media platforms, potential failures of popular networks, and challenges with monetization in a high-interest-rate environment have created an opportune landscape for DESO's growth. Governments worldwide have implemented laws to restrict social media content following the impact of the pandemic, as highlighted in this article on online censorship.

The implementation of various regulations, including the Digital Services Act (DSA) of the European Union, is causing a noticeable impact. Consequently, engaging in open and unrestricted conversations on major social media platforms is becoming increasingly challenging. An example of one leading social media platform, such as X, is now prioritizing free speech. Unfortunately, the resistance by these platforms may lead to their eventual downfall. X, for instance, has recently lost advertisers and is expected to incur significant financial losses.

The supposed economic downturn has led to a universal decrease in advertising revenue. In response, Google has taken measures to restrict the use of ad blockers on YouTube and has increased the frequency of advertisements in an effort to boost its ad revenue.

Upon initial consideration, it may appear improbable that the typical individual would transition to utilizing a decentralized social media platform due to concerns regarding censorship and advertisements. Nevertheless, upon further examination, it becomes evident that the adoption of decentralized social media is gaining momentum, with decentralized streaming experiencing remarkably rapid growth, as illustrated in the graph below.

Image source: Coingecko

Put in perspective, Odysee boasts a substantial user base exceeding 5 million individuals monthly, which continues to grow. As a decentralized social media protocol, Odysee outshines its competitors significantly. It is worth noting that Odysee is powered by LBRY, a cryptocurrency initiative that faced legal action from the SEC and was subsequently forced to cease operations. Nevertheless, Odysee remains the most prized possession of LBRY, Inc.

Odysee’s assets were recently sold at auction. According to LBRY’s report, while it’s nearly certain the Odysee assets will be assumed by someone interested in resuming its growth, it’s unclear if Odysee will continue to use the LBRY network in the future, switch to another crypto network, or switch to being a traditional web2 platform. 

If another crypto network acquires Odysee, you can bet that the crypto project will see explosive growth. Additionally, there is growing interest in decentralized platforms that replicate the functionality of traditional social media platforms like Twitter, as shown in the graph. These platforms concentrate on specific aspects of digital media, such as decentralized streaming and microblogging, and are designed to operate vertically. 

One decentralized platform that is not on that list yet encompasses all of the above and more. Markethive and its community are dedicated to building an entire ecosystem for entrepreneurs, including marketing, blogging, curation, email autoresponders, page-making systems, video feed, conference facilities, e-commerce, broadcasting, press releases, social network integration, etc.

Having established a comprehensive financial center for all its users and utilizing the Solana network for its Hivecoin token, Markethive is now preparing to introduce its platform to a global audience. Markethive has also removed itself from the centralized cloud services that continue to stifle platforms at the mercy of third-party APIs serving their interests. Currently, several user interface (UI) and UX components of Markethive's arsenal are being integrated in tandem to provide a sanctuary and empower individuals to regain control of their sovereignty. This year, 2024, is shaping up to be a pivotal time for Markethive, as it aims to reach unparalleled success and give back to the community that has embraced its vision.

GameFi

GameFi, the second prominent crypto narrative, is poised to experience immense growth, with some arguing that it's already underway. A glance at DappRadar reveals that the majority of the most well-liked decentralized applications (dApps) are connected to blockchain-based games. These games have amassed a considerable following, boasting millions of monthly active users. The surging popularity of blockchain games shouldn't come as a surprise, given that the traditional gaming industry grapples with challenges akin to those confronting centralized social media platforms.

To begin with, it seems that older video games are preferred over modern ones. This can be attributed to a variety of factors, such as disappointing visuals, weak storytelling, unnecessary infusion of politics, and overall unsatisfactory gameplay.

In 2022, the video game industry experienced its first year of losses in ten years, resulting in widespread layoffs among major developers. This downturn may be attributed to the pandemic-driven surge turning into a decline or developers ignoring their loyal player base. Regardless of the cause, the gaming industry is struggling financially. Similar to other technology leaders like Google, this situation may motivate game developers to explore alternative revenue streams.

Interestingly, it has been reported that players of Assassin's Creed encountered disruptive pop-up advertisements while playing the game. This occurrence was purportedly a technical glitch, but it shed light on the possibility that the gaming industry is attempting to impose advertisements on players in a similar manner to how YouTube is attempting to do so with its audience. While the typical YouTube viewer might tolerate this, it is highly probable that the average gamer would not welcome having their gameplay disrupted by pop-ups.

The outcome may be that game developers must incorporate GameFi elements to compensate for lost revenue, or players will seek out ad-free alternatives. A mixture of both scenarios will probably occur, which could be why blockchain games have gained significant popularity. If it is indeed the case that game developers are disregarding their primary audiences, then the adoption of blockchain games could even further increase.

This is because crypto technology, such as NFTs, enables gamers to influence the game's design instead of being controlled by ESG-obsessed asset managers like BlackRock. However, there is a limitation: these blockchain games must not involve excessive financialization. If they do, they may attract regulatory scrutiny, similar to what happened to Axi Infiniti in the Philippines.

The likelihood of this scrutiny is likely the reason why there have been limited GameFi integrations. Aside from regulatory hurdles, scalability and speed pose a significant challenge to widespread adoption, as seen in the case of Axi Infinity. Only a few blockchains can effectively accommodate millions of users simultaneously. 

In Axi's situation, they had to develop their specialized layer two solution called Ronan. This implies that you should prioritize the underlying layer one and layer two blockchains that support blockchain games rather than focusing on specific games. Thanks to its subnet architecture, Avalanche is notably gaining popularity as a preferred choice in this area.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

The emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a dominant force in the tech industry is a narrative that has gained significant traction recently. While some argue that the AI explosion is already underway, others believe the real breakthrough is yet to come. The current AI hype in crypto and stocks is largely considered just hype, as there have been minimal actual changes thus far. It is widely believed that it will take at least two years for innovative AI companies to release their products and even longer for the general public to embrace and utilize them fully.

The current AI-fueled market frenzy may eventually subside as regulatory measures take effect or other factors come into play. If this bubble does burst, it may create a prime investment opportunity for crypto projects centered around AI technology. These projects will likely perform exceptionally well when the AI narrative regains momentum. Currently, everyday investors like us are unable to capitalize on AI innovation, making these cryptocurrency projects an attractive prospect.

While investing in established companies like Nvidia and Microsoft is possible, their massive valuations limit their potential for significant growth. As a result, private equity remains the most viable option for those seeking substantial returns on AI investments – but this avenue is only accessible to high-net-worth individuals. If this trend persists, investing in AI-related cryptocurrencies might be the only way for everyday investors to generate meaningful profits from the AI sector.

The emergence of new AI companies may be hindered if industry leaders such as Nvidia and Microsoft restrict access to their hardware and software. However, crypto tech's decentralized and open nature could provide an advantage in this scenario. Interestingly, some crypto projects have enabled individuals to access the previously exclusive hardware needed to run AI models, thereby promoting greater accessibility and competition in the field.

Among the projects in this category is the Akash Network. Additionally, numerous cryptocurrency initiatives have been making advancements in the software aspect of artificial intelligence. By merging this open-source progress with decentralized AI hardware, the result is a foundation for robust crypto AIs capable of rivaling those developed by Google and other companies.

In this instance, the main point to note is that if crypto AI were to become popular, the existing players would probably try to influence government regulators in order to prevent the development of decentralized artificial intelligence technology. It is important to note that these incumbents are already campaigning for policies that would hinder their centralized rivals from creating AI technology.

The upside is that AI in the crypto sector is still largely under the radar. This means there aren't many established factors to consider when evaluating its potential. Nobody knows yet whether the crypto industry can support the development of these models. Nevertheless, just as no one anticipated Bitcoin becoming the de facto digital gold, we find ourselves in that very situation. This demonstrates the potential for unexpected developments in the crypto landscape. 

Crypto Infrastructure

Infrastructure in the crypto industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in the areas of decentralized storage cryptocurrencies and crypto oracles that provide external data to the blockchain. It is important to note that infrastructure cryptos will play a crucial role in the success of other crypto narratives. For example, decentralized social media will likely demand substantial data storage capacity, while decentralized gaming will rely on extensive data feeds. Additionally, crypto AI will heavily rely on decentralized computing, which differs from decentralized storage regarding technical requirements.

Data storage, data feeds, and computing processes must be decentralized to ensure seamless operation and avoid potential regulatory or technical issues. This is particularly important given that a prominent centralized cloud platform banned crypto in August 2022. Moreover, Meta's use of Arweave for NFT storage demonstrates that decentralized infrastructure can be just as effective as its centralized counterpart. If discriminatory practices persist at the infrastructure level, such as app stores refusing to list certain apps, decentralized alternatives are likely to gain traction

In addition to Arweave, other cryptocurrencies worth keeping an eye on include cutting-edge oracle systems like Pyth, which may have a role in the gaming sector (GameFi); video encoding protocols such as Livepeer, which could have a role in decentralized social networks (DeSo); and data indexing protocols like The Graph, which could have a role in artificial intelligence (AI) development. It's important to note that this list is not exhaustive, and there may be other promising cryptocurrencies beyond these examples.

The level of adoption of the three previous narratives will influence the demand for these cryptocurrencies and their competitors. If there is significant adoption, there will be ample demand for these cryptos, potentially leading to an increase in price. However, it is essential to conduct thorough research on the tokenomics of these cryptocurrencies before investing, as this will determine whether the demand translates into a price surge.

Image source: Techopedia

Two More Narratives with Potential

Concluding the discussion, two additional crypto narratives may grow significantly. These narratives can potentially surpass the combined impact of the previous four. The first is the concept of crypto payments, while the second is the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), which has recently generated much hype. These two narratives are presented together as the final topics in this article due to the numerous regulatory challenges they face, specifically in the case of RWAs for crypto payments.

One of the main challenges involves the regulations surrounding stablecoins, which remain uncertain in numerous jurisdictions, especially in the United States. Congress is currently considering a proposed bill that could facilitate the use of stablecoins for payments, but its passage is unlikely until after the upcoming election due to the political divisions within the legislative body.

In the European Union, the Markets In Crypto Assets (MiCa) regulation technically allows stablecoins to be used for payments. However, the use of stablecoins will be restricted to Euro-backed stablecoins, which some argue are not all that popular. Despite this, regulatory clarity could lead to the adoption of crypto payments, positively impacting high-performance blockchains primed for payments, such as Solana and layer two solutions on Ethereum.

This relates to the regulations around RWAs, which are much further away. Some would say that this is debatable, given that stablecoins are technically RWAs; there are already tokenized fiat currencies and commodities. However, some argue that these differ from the RWAs on which the narrative truly focuses. The RWAs that most people have in mind involve tokenizing assets such as real estate, stocks, and bonds. If this is the situation, then tokenizing these assets on public blockchains is a distant prospect.

Significantly, major organizations and wealthy individuals would likely feel uneasy about revealing their RWA assets on transparent blockchains accessible to the public. As a result, they would opt for private and permissioned blockchains or public blockchains that ensure compliant privacy. When considering this, the transparency of cryptocurrency blockchains could pose a major challenge for narratives centered around institutional interests such as RWAs, which is why we're seeing growing interest in crypto privacy solutions. However, this particular market segment may not experience significant growth until the next cycle; it's an area that holds promise for the future.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Tim Moseley