Analysts more bullish on gold following lower job growth, higher wage inflation

The gold market rallied following a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report for July, which included downward revisions for May and June and strong wage growth, sending spot gold prices from $1931 to an intraday high of $1946.79

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed that the loss of momentum for the U.S. labor market, even as inflation pressures remain in place, had most market analysts bullish or neutral on gold's prospects for the coming week.

This week, 15 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. Eight of them, or 53%, said they expect to see higher prices for gold next week, while six analysts, or 40%, had a neutral outlook. Only one analyst predicted lower prices for the precious metal over the next seven days, representing 7% of the total.

Kitco Gold Survey

Wall Street

Bullish53%

Bearish7%

Neutral40%

"The U.S. jobs market is slowly cooling, and that's exactly what the Fed wants to see," said Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at Forexlive.com. "The market is increasingly comfortable that we are at the terminal rate in Fed funds. When that's confirmed, I think the only place for interest rates to go is down, which is bullish for gold."

Button said gold is already at a fairly elevated price despite strong headwinds from the Fed. "The starting spot right now is around $1940, so how high can gold run in a rate cutting cycle?" he asked. "We've seen high real rates, and when you take a step back and look at how gold has performed during this rate hiking cycle, it's extremely encouraging."

He added that while it's still a little bit early in seasonal terms, by the time Q4 rolls around it will be clear that the Fed is done and that rate cuts are coming in 2024. "That's when I expect gold to take off."

Button said he is also bullish on gold in the short term. "I expect next week's CPI report to emphasize that inflation is contained and will slowly subside, and that should help to lift gold," he said.

Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, also sees upside potential for the yellow metal.

"I like gold higher next week," said Chandler. "I think the recent pullback, aided by a rise in rates and a stronger dollar, has run its course. A potential key upside reversal is unfolding after the employment data and gold's decline to a nearly four-week low slightly below $1926 in the spot market. A move back above $1950 suggests potential back toward $1965-$1970."

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, also expects gold to post gains in the coming days. "I am bullish on gold for the coming week," Cieszynski said. "Technically, it looks like the recent rally in USD and correction in gold is ending. If gold holds on to today's gains, we would have a really nice bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern."

And Darin Newsom, senior market strategist at Barchart.com, also saw technical confirmation that gold was poised for short-term gains.

"December gold is in position to complete a bullish key reversal on its daily chart, confirming the short-term trend has turned up," Newsom said. "Thursday's close saw daily stochastics complete a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, a signal the short-term trend was set to change direction. The previous 3-wave downtrend began with a bearish key reversal on Thursday, July 20, with a high that day of $2,028.60."

"All that is needed for December gold to complete its pattern Friday is a close above Thursday's settlement of $1,968.80," he said.

Representing the neutral camp as he did last week, James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com said he expects gold prices to remain in a sideways holding pattern, though he sees next week's inflation data as a key risk event. "Unchanged, but CPI can change that quickly depending on how it hits," he said.

Stanley said this week was another bear trap, and he doesn't see gold ready for a larger breakdown just yet. "USD was really strong and there was an open door for bears, but they didn't walk through it so I have to think the breakdown theme isn't here yet," he said. "The 1980 area is still key, so if we see a lower-high inside of that next week, the bearish case will grow a bit more attractive."

The lone voice of pessimism among market analysts this week was Kitco's own Jim Wyckoff, who said he sees enough evidence to expect gold prices to fall next week.

"Steady-lower as prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart," he said.

Gold prices continued to trade in positive territory on Friday afternoon, but the precious metal was still down 0.25% on the week, with spot gold last trading at $1940.56 at the time of writing.

By

Ernest Hoffman

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

CPI could be a make-or-break moment for gold next week as prices look for direction

The gold market is back in no-man's land as the price is pushed and pulled between rising bond yields and continued economic uncertainty. According to some analysts, next week's inflation data could be a "make or break" moment for the precious metal as it struggles to find direction.

Gold's neutral outlook comes as prices look to end the week holding critical near-term support levels but cannot generate enough momentum to retest important resistance. December gold futures last traded at $1,977 an ounce, down 1% from last week.

Although the gold market is looking to end the week off its lows, analysts note that the precious metal still faces some problematic headwinds as economic data does not provide definitive evidence that the Federal Reserve can ease away from its hawkish bias.

Friday's nonfarm payrolls report provided markets with a mixed picture at best as the headline employment number missed expectations, but wage inflation rose. The latest nonfarm payrolls report showed that 187,000 jobs were created in July, compared to economists' expectations for job growth of 200,000. At the same time, wages grew 0.4% last month.

Some analysts have said that for gold to regain its luster and hold gains above $1,980 an ounce, the June Consumer Price Index, published next week, must come in cooler than expected.

"I'm cautiously bullish on gold next week, but if CPI is weak and gold can't rally, then I think this market is done for now," said Dan Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures. "If gold can't rally in that environment, then I think the market needs to reset and consolidate at lower prices."

However, some analysts are not convinced that inflation is ready to drop further. Christopher Vecchio, head of futures and forex at Tastylive.com, said he is not convinced that inflation will reach the Fed's 2% target.

He added that base effects supporting CPI's decline since last year's highs are now working themselves out of the market. He also pointed out that the U.S. economy is facing a renewed rise in food and energy prices.

"I think the risk is that the inflation data supports the Fed's view that interest rates will have to stay higher for long. We could also see markets start to price in a November rate hike. That would create a tough environment for gold," he said.

Vecchio said that he is neutral on gold as he also doesn't want to bet against gold as it looks like U.S. 10-year bond yields above 4% could be peaking.

  Gold prices test critical support following Fitch downgrade, will take time to regain safe-haven status

"I haven't seen any direction in gold for a few weeks. Every time we bounce past $1,950, the rally doesn't last long; every time we drop below, the selloff doesn't last. Frankly, the technicals are a mess," said Vecchio.

He added that there is also a risk that even if the inflation data comes in weaker than expected, it might not be enough to change the Federal Reserve's hawkish basis as there are still a lot of numbers to be published ahead of September's or November's monetary policy meetings.

But it's more than just the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance hanging over the gold market. The precious metal has found solid support as fears of a slowing economy support safe-haven demand.

Added to the mix was this past week's debt downgrade from Fitch Ratings. Tuesday night, the rating agency downgraded the U.S. government's long-term debt to 'AA+' from 'AAA.

Ed Moya, senior North American market analyst at OANDA, said there is a concern that this downgrade put more focus on the health of the U.S. economy and that rising bond yields could actually create some safe-haven demand for gold.

"If bond yields continue to rise, that could spook markets," he said. "Higher rates for longer is still an environment that gold can thrive in, especially if Wall Street becomes fixated over the deficit.

Despite gold's near-term volatility, Moya said there are still good reasons to be bullish on gold long term as the Federal Reserve nears the end of its tightening cycle.

"It's going to be a bumpy ride to get inflation down to 2%, but the Fed can achieve that goal because the economy is slowing," he said. "We are starting to see the end of monetary policy tightening as the Fed gets closer to its goal and that supports gold prices."

However, Vecchio said he doesn't expect the recent debt downgrade to create much fear in the market. He added that economic conditions are completely different than they were in 2011 when the S&P 500 spooked markets with its downgrade, which ultimately drove gold prices to then-all-time highs above $1,900 an ounce.

"The Fitch downgrade made a nice headline, but the criteria they used seems kind of flimsy," he said. "We saw bonds selloff this past week because investors are buying into the soft-landing and reducing their exposure to safe-haven assets."

While bond yields have room to move higher before they challenge the multi-year highs in October, analysts note that they are currently at levels that sparked the banking crisis in March and April, which saw several major regional U.S. banks collapse.

Next week's data:

Thursday: U.S. CPI, weekly jobless claims

Friday: U.S. PPI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold prices remain stuck in neutral as U.S. economy created 187K jobs in July, wages increase

The gold market is trying to hold critical resistance levels as the U.S. labor market loses momentum in July, even as inflation pressures remain in place.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 187,000 last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly figure was below the market consensus estimates of 205,000.

However, the report also noted that the U.S. unemployment rate saw a better-than-expected improvement, falling to 3.5%, down from 3.6% in June. Economists were expecting to see an unchanged reading.

The gold market is not seeing much reaction to the disappointing headline numbers. December gold futures last traded at $1,970 an ounce, roughly unchanged on the day.

According to some market analysts, the gold market could be struggling to gain solid bullish traction because the report noted that inflation remains a significant concern and could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after the summer.

The report said that average hourly earnings rose by 14 cents or 0.4% last month to $33.74. The increase beat expectations as economists were looking for wages to rise 0.3%.

Along with the disappointing headline number, the report noted a downward revision in May and June. May's unemployment data was revised down to 281,000, down from the previous estimate of 306,000; at the same time, June's employment data was revised down to 185,000, down from the initial forecast of 209,000.

Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said that the data would continue to fuel the ongoing tug of war in the marketplace as the latest data provides no definitive path for the U.S. central bank.

"There were also some mixed signals in the data point, which means that the Fed doesn't really have the confidence to go and increase the interest rate in the way that they would have liked," he said.

Aslam added that next week's inflation data will be a crucial piece of data for markets next week.

"Traders are highly likely to continue to live on the edge unless they see a clear downtrend in inflation, which is difficult to anticipate given an upswing in oil prices," he said.

Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics noted that the disappointing data in the last two months shows job growth at its slowest pace in 2.5 years.

“The cyclical sectors of the economy contributed less than 100,000 additional jobs, pointing to a real economy that, echoing the muted survey-based evidence, is a lot weaker than the pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth suggested,” he said.

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver weaker amid surging U.S. Treasury yields

Gold and silver prices are moderately down in midday U.S. trading Thursday. The precious metals are feeling the pressure of rising U.S. Treasury yields and an up-trending U.S. dollar index. December gold was last down $6.30 at $1,968.70 and September silver was down $0.237 at $23.635.

The surprise downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating by Fitch has cast a pall over what was a generally upbeat summertime marketplace. The Fitch downgrade came amid no major changes in U.S. government policies or actions recently, but instead appears to be a recognition by Fitch of the bitter partisanship among lawmakers, including over raising the U.S. debt ceiling, in recent years. Some argue the Fitch news is just an excuse for the U.S. stock indexes to see downside corrections after recent good gains. As for rising bond yields this week, the Treasury yields have actually been trending higher (prices lower) since March. However, bond yields have accelerated their rise the past two days. JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon, when asked about the significance of the Fitch credit downgrade to the U.S., replied that it did not mean much and that the true judge of U.S. creditworthiness is the markets.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower near midday.

In other news, the Bank of England raised its main interest rate by 0.25%, to 5.25%. The move was expected.

Traders are awaiting the U.S. data point of the week on Friday: the U.S. employment situation report for July. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs, compared to a rise of 209,000 in the June report.

  No soft landing means 'we take out the all-time highs on gold by year-end' while equity collapse could drag Bitcoin below 15k – Gareth Soloway

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker and hitting a four-week high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $81.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 4.196%.

Technically, December gold futures prices hit another three-week low today. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bears have downside momentum. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $2,028.60. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,939.20. First resistance is seen at $1,075.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,992.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,964.50 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September silver futures prices hit another three-week low today. The silver bulls still have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $25.475. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $22.34. First resistance is seen at $24.00 and then at $24.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $23.41 and then at $23.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 485 points at 389.20 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 418.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 396.40 cents and then at 400.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 382.05 cents and then at 380.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold's, and gold miners' fake rally was erased – just as expected

What a difference 24h can make, huh? Gold rallied visibly on Monday, only to give it back on Tuesday. Same with miners. What's next?

Gold and Miners' Volatile Ride

Exactly the same thing that was likely before yesterday's session. One of the things that indicated that decline was silver's outperformance – this indication rarely fails to deliver. It's surprising for those, who are new to the silver market, but it's true – the white metal tends to fake strength relative to gold right before the entire sector turns south. We saw that once again.

That was fake strength. Fake weakness was what we recently saw in the USD Index.

On July 14, when the USD Index was after the daily close at 99.49, I wrote the following:

And the thing is that the USD Index IS likely to reverse and soar very soon.

Slightly lower than expected CPI and lower than expected nonfarm payrolls didn't justify a decline this big. The market simply wanted to decline as it seems that the market participants are still in denial and expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates shortly once again. And it can't without limiting the demand. The move lower in the USD Index just made this task harder for the Fed as the U.S.-produced good just got much cheaper for foreign buyers.

On a technical front, each move below 101 (and 100 is even more profound support as it's an extremely round number) was quickly reversed and followed by a rally. And since we now also see a strong buy signal from the RSI (we haven't seen it this low in well over a year!), it's very likely that we're seeing a bottom in the making right now.

That's exactly what happened. That was a fake weakness, and it ended up being one of the most bullish monthly price patterns imaginable – we saw a monthly hammer reversal candlestick.

And you know what happened after the previous monthly reversal?

Rhyming History Points to Turmoil Ahead

The USD Index launched a powerful rally, even though the reversal that we saw back then (in early 2021) was not even as clear as the one that we saw in July 2023. The GDXJ ETF – proxy for junior mining stocks – topped when the USD Index reversed in early 2021, and it simply kept on declining with periodic corrections.

The point is: higher GDXJ prices were never seen since that time, even though the general stock market moved higher since that time, which “should have” contributed to the miners' rally.

Speaking of stocks, please take a look at what happened in them yesterday and what's happening in the S&P 500 futures in today's pre-market trading.

The above chart features daily price changes (each candlestick is one trading day), and the below chart features the 4-hour candlesticks.

The S&P 500 futures formed a clear shooting star reversal in late July, and it can also be viewed as a failed attempt to move above the mid-July high. Stocks attempted to move above this level also in early August, and they failed once again. Today's early decline suggests that the rally might be over.

Why is this important for mining stocks?

Because they moved lower substantially yesterday, while stocks moved lower just a little. So, if stocks are going to move lower in a really significant manner (and it's likely to happen either very soon or soon, anyway), then miners are likely to truly plunge.

As a reminder, the history is rhyming for junior miners and the action that followed the vertical, red lines are very similar. These lines were not placed randomly – they market the days when the nonfarm payroll statistics arrived below expectations. In both cases, junior miners first rallied, and then they formed important tops.

That was also the case recently, and the current decline is in perfect tune with what we already saw.

Yes, the economic / geopolitical situation is not the same as it was in April 2023 or in mid-2022, but it doesn't matter. What matters is that the statistics were below expectations. This is the key part, because missed expectations trigger similar emotions regardless of the statistics themselves. And since price moves are ultimately triggered by humans that are taking emotional (!) decisions (they might be good and justifying those emotional decisions with logic, but emotions always play a huge role in making decisions on average), the same patterns will continue to work over and over again.

Because neither fear nor greed nor other emotions will disappear regardless of which party wins elections, how high interest rates get, and so on. That's why applying technical analysis while making gold price forecasts makes sense now, and it made sense decades ago. And it will continue to make sense in the future.

What does history's tendency to rhyme tell us – gold investors – right now? That's we should brace ourselves for more turmoil this year, as soaring USD Index and declining stocks don't bode well for gold price's outlook. And in particular, the above combination is likely to drive junior mining stocks lower.

This, in turn, means that the huge profits that we recently reaped in the FCX recently are likely to be joined by massive profits from the current short positions in the junior mining stocks and in the FCX.

By

Przemyslaw Radomski

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold declines by over $27 as hope diminishes of a rate cut this year

Gold spot and futures both declined by over 1% today as traders reacted to dollar strength and stronger yields on U.S. Treasuries. But that explanation lacks the complete backdrop to the multiple reasons why gold is trading under pressure today.

Market participants are reacting with extreme caution before the release of Friday's nonfarm payroll jobs report. Current forecasts are predicting that the report will reveal that 200,000 new jobs were added in July after increasing by 209,000 in June.

In a report today by Reuters, U.S. job openings hit more than a two-year low.

"U.S. job openings fell to the lowest level in more than two years in June but remained at levels consistent with tight labor market conditions, which could spur the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for some time. Labor market resilience was underscored by the third straight monthly decline in layoffs as employers hoard workers after difficulties finding labor during the COVID-19 pandemic."

This week's jobs report could be an underlying factor enticing some traders and investors to take profits ahead of the report.

A momentary pause from the focus on the Federal Reserve

Although last week's FOMC meeting statements and comments by Chairman Powell left many investors, analysts, and economists with more questions than answers regarding the future guidance as it pertains to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, it is widely believed that next month's FOMC meeting will not contain another rate hike. The most current information provided by the CME's Fedwatch tool predicts that there is an 82.5% probability that rates will remain unchanged after the Fed raised rates by ¼% at the last FOMC meeting.

While it is true that the Fed remained guarded about revealing too much information about their plans, Chairman Powell's statements were carefully worded but direct and to the point such as, "It's not an environment where we want to provide a lot of forward guidance".

As of 4:32 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active December contract is currently trading down $27.40 or -1.36% and fixed at $1981.80. This after breaking a key psychological price point trading to an intraday high today of $2004.40, $0.20 above this morning's opening price. Gold is currently trading near $1978.30 today's intraday low.

While dollar strength is partially responsible for gold's strong selloff today it was certainly not the major component moving gold lower. The dollar is currently up 0.38% and the index is fixed at 102.015. Silver futures basis most active September contract declined by $0.54 and is currently fixed at $24.435

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver gain on chart-based buying

Gold and silver prices are higher in midday U.S. trading Monday. Amid a lack of fresh fundamental news to drive market prices, the precious metals traders are focusing on the improved near-term chart postures in gold and silver and doing some technically based buying. December gold was last up $10.00 at $2,009.80 and September silver was up $0.46 at $24.96.

Gold and silver bulls this week may also be focusing on recent upbeat U.S. and European Union economic data that may suggest better consumer and commercial demand for metals in the coming months. However, downbeat economic data coming out of China recently will keep precious metals traders from getting too bulled up.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher at midday in quieter summertime trading. Trading may remain more subdued this week, ahead of the U.S. data point of the week on Friday: the U.S. employment situation report for July. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs, compared to a rise of 209,000 in the June repot.

  Silver prices struggling as market ignores robust economic data

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $81.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.98%.

Technically, December gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,050.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,939.20. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $2,022.10 and then at the July high of $2,028.60. First support is seen at $2,000.00 and then at today’s low of $1,986.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $25.325 and then at the July high of $25.475. Next support is seen at $24.50 and then at last week’s low of $24.18. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 790 points at 400.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a 13-week high. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 418.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 378.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 401.55 cents and then at 405.00 cents. First support is seen at 385.00 cents and then at 390.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold investors will be watching U.S. data like a hawk this week, anticipating a weakening trend

Gold market will be hungry for information that will help provide some clarity to the Federal Reserve's open-ended monetary policy stance with disappointing economic data supporting higher prices.

While analysts are not expecting a major breakout in gold in the near term, some have said that the bias is to the upside as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance is expected to weaken the economy. Heading into the weekend, the gold market has pushed back above $1,950 an ounce, even as it sees a modest loss. August gold futures last traded at $1,958.80 an ounce, down 0.3% from last Friday.

In comparison, silver has seen a bigger struggle this past week as prices have managed to hold support above $24.25 an ounce. September Silver futures last traded at $24.45 an ounce, down 1.6% from last week.

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said he expects gold prices to test the top end of its current range in reaction to softer data. He added that while a definitive softening trend could propel gold higher, even the slightest sign of weakness will be price supportive.

"The market is desperate for any type of clarity. Right now, the Federal Reserve is going to maintain their hawkish bias because they want to see inflation go down further, so any soft data that will shift that bias will be good for gold," he said.

While there are a variety of economic reports that investors will be able to sink their teeth into, the main event will be on Friday with the release of the U.S. Labor Department's July nonfarm payrolls report.

Lukman Otunuga, manager of market analysis at FXTM, said that because of the Federal Reserve's data-dependent stance, gold will be particularly sensitive to the employment numbers.

The Federal Reserve has said it would like to see some cooling in the labor market as a condition for controlling inflation. In the last report, the Labor Department said the economy created 209,000 jobs in June. This was the first time the employment data missed expectations since May 2022.

"Every US data point moving forward will act as a key piece that will determine whether the Fed raises rates one final time in 2023 or not. Given how markets are only pricing in an 18% probability of rate hike in September, with this jumping to only 37% by November, gold bulls remain in a comfortable position," Otunuga said. "The path of least resistance for gold points north with a disappointing jobs report next week potentially opening a path back towards $1985. A solid breakout above this point could open the doors towards the psychological $2000 level."

Some analysts have noted that along with benefiting from an inevitable shift in monetary policy, which will weaken the U.S. dollar, weaker economic data will also raise fears of a potential recession, supporting gold's safe-haven allure.

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Silver prices struggling as market ignores robust economic data

"Right now, central banks have the fraught responsibility of striking the balance just right on interest rates – investors will be looking for signs by which to judge the success or otherwise of the banks' actions," said Stuart O'Reilly, Market Insight Analyst at the Royal Mint, in a statement to Kitco News. "Persistently high inflation or signs that a major economy could tip into recession might lead some investors to increase their allocations to gold as a traditional ‘safe haven' – signs of economic recovery and falling inflation may have the opposite effect. As central banks navigate this challenging period, the jury is out on how gold will fare in the months ahead as global economies find out whether recent interest rate rises have gone too far, too quick."

Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, said he doesn't expect to see a significant breakdown in economic data next week. However, he added that the reports should start highlighting a slowing pattern.

"We are starting to see inflation turning in the right direction because interest rates are starting to bite into the economy," he said. "When you look at gold, it's in a great place. It is holding above $1,950 an ounce even after the Fed has raised interest rates above 5%. The minute the Federal Reserve indicates it's done tightening, we will see gold prices much higher."

Next week's data:

Tuesday: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job report

Wednesday: U.S. ADP nonfarm employment

Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, jobless claims, ISM services PMI

Friday: U.S. nonfarm payrolls

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold prices push back above $1,950 as U.S. PCE inflation continues to cool rising 0.2% in June

Gold prices have pushed back above the critical psychologically important $1,950 level as U.S. inflation drops in line with expectations.

Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce said its core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased 0.2% last month, compared to May's increase of 0.3%. The inflation rose in line with economists' expectations.

Inflation in the last 12 months rose 4.1%, down sharply from June's 4.6% increase. Annual inflation also came in a tick cooler than expected, with economists looking for a 4.2% rise. Looking at the broader trend, inflation remains stubbornly high, roughly double the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

Meanwhile, headline inflation for the last 12 months rose 3.0%, compared to May's increase of 3.8%.

Although inflation remains stubbornly high, some analysts have noted that it continues to fall in the right direction, giving the Federal Reserve room to leave interest rates unchanged in September. A potential halt to the central bank's tightening continues to support gold prices.

August gold futures last traded at $1,955.90 an ounce, up 0.55% on the day.

Analysts note that growing cracks in consumption also support gold prices. The report noted that personal income is not keeping up with consumption.

Personal income increased 0.3% in June, compared to May's revised increase of 0.5%. The data missed expectations as economists looked for a 0.5% increase.

Meanwhile, consumers appear to be dipping into their credit to meet their shopping needs. The report said that consumption increased by 0.5% last month, compared to May's increase of 0.2%. Spending came in higher than expected, with consensus estimates calling for a 0.4% increase.

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver slump after strong U.S. data rallies greenback

Gold prices are solidly lower and hit a two-week low in midday U.S. trading Thursday. Silver is down sharply, too. Modest overnight gains in both metals were erased after the release of upbeat U.S. economic data this morning that beat market expectations. August gold was last down $27.10 at $1,943.00 and September silver was down $0.645 at $24.325.

U.S. economic data Thursday morning fell squarely into the camp of the monetary policy hawks, suggesting at least one more interest rate hike may be necessary to further cool the U.S. economy and choke off problematic price inflation. The first estimate of second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product came in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, which beat market expectations for a rise of 2.0%. The internals of the GDP report were also solid. Meantime, U.S. durable goods order were reported up 4.7% in June versus expectations for a 1.5% gain. Also, weekly U.S. jobless claims came in lower than expected. The data sharply boosted the U.S. dollar index and pushed U.S. Treasury yields up—both of which are daily bearish elements for the precious metals markets.

The marketplace Thursday pretty much digested Wednesday afternoon's 25 basis-point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Powell's remarks at his press conference were deemed not too hawkish and not too dovish and the markets showed no big reactions. Some Fed watchers are thinking the central bank is now done with its rate-hike cycle, while others think the Fed will do one more rate increase in November.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday. The indexes are at or near their highs for the year amid a summertime rally.

In other news, the European Central Bank slightly raised its main interest rate at today's monetary policy meeting, as expected.

  ECB's data-dependent stance weakens euro against U.S. dollar, pushing gold prices to session lows

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher and posting its biggest daily gain in months. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.9%.

Technically, August gold futures prices scored a bearish outside day down today and hit a two-week low. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.60. First resistance is seen at $1,960.00 and then at $1,975.00. First support is seen at $1,937.50 and then at $1,925.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September silver futures prices scored a bearish “outside day” down today. The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but faded today. A four-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $26.475. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at $25.00 and then at today's high of $25.325. Next support is seen at today's low of $24.18 and then at $24.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 290 points at 387.30 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a bearish outside day down. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 396.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at the July high of 395.40 cents and then at 396.40 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday's low of 384.45 cents and then at last week's low of 378.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley