Gold, silver weaker amid surging U.S. Treasury yields
Gold and silver prices are moderately down in midday U.S. trading Thursday. The precious metals are feeling the pressure of rising U.S. Treasury yields and an up-trending U.S. dollar index. December gold was last down $6.30 at $1,968.70 and September silver was down $0.237 at $23.635.
The surprise downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating by Fitch has cast a pall over what was a generally upbeat summertime marketplace. The Fitch downgrade came amid no major changes in U.S. government policies or actions recently, but instead appears to be a recognition by Fitch of the bitter partisanship among lawmakers, including over raising the U.S. debt ceiling, in recent years. Some argue the Fitch news is just an excuse for the U.S. stock indexes to see downside corrections after recent good gains. As for rising bond yields this week, the Treasury yields have actually been trending higher (prices lower) since March. However, bond yields have accelerated their rise the past two days. JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon, when asked about the significance of the Fitch credit downgrade to the U.S., replied that it did not mean much and that the true judge of U.S. creditworthiness is the markets.
Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower near midday.
In other news, the Bank of England raised its main interest rate by 0.25%, to 5.25%. The move was expected.
Traders are awaiting the U.S. data point of the week on Friday: the U.S. employment situation report for July. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs, compared to a rise of 209,000 in the June report.
No soft landing means 'we take out the all-time highs on gold by year-end' while equity collapse could drag Bitcoin below 15k – Gareth Soloway
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker and hitting a four-week high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $81.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 4.196%.
Technically, December gold futures prices hit another three-week low today. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bears have downside momentum. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $2,028.60. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,939.20. First resistance is seen at $1,075.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,992.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,964.50 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
September silver futures prices hit another three-week low today. The silver bulls still have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $25.475. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $22.34. First resistance is seen at $24.00 and then at $24.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $23.41 and then at $23.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
September N.Y. copper closed up 485 points at 389.20 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 418.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 396.40 cents and then at 400.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 382.05 cents and then at 380.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
By
Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News
Tim Moseley