Gold, silver weaker after U.S. CPI suggests still-hawkish Fed

Gold and silver prices are modestly down in midday U.S. trading Wednesday. Although prices showed little reaction to a major U.S. inflation report that contained no big surprises, the data did fall into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks. That's a negative for the metals markets. December gold was last down $3.60 at $1,931.50 and December silver was down $0.277 at $23.125.

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Today's U.S. data point of the week saw the consumer price index report for August come in at up 3.7%, year-on-year, with the core CPI up 4.3% in the same period. The CPI was expected to be up 3.6%, year-on-year, versus a 3.2% rise in the July report. The core reading in July was up 4.7%. The metals and the general marketplace showed little reaction to the numbers.

Said Nigel Green of the deVere Group right after the CPI report: “The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in September, before hiking them again next time. Inflation heated up again last month in the world's largest economy, driven mainly by rising oil costs. This latest U.S. CPI data is unlikely to move the needle on the Fed's highly anticipated move to hold rates steady at their meeting next week, which has already been priced-in by financial markets." He added, “But the uptick in inflation gives the U.S. central bank extra reason to be hawkish moving forward. As such, we also expect the Fed will start to prepare the market for a rate increase at its November meeting."

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The U.S. producer price index is out Thursday morning. The European Central Bank also holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday and is expected to slightly raise its main interest rate by 0.25 percent.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $88.50 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching around 4.3%.

Technically, the gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at the September high of $1,980.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the August low of $1,913.60. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of $1,947.50 and then at this week's high of $1,954.60. First support is seen at $1,925.00 and then at $1,913.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $24.655. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $22.585. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $23.515 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at $22.585. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Headline inflation is expected to rise, and technical selling moves gold lower

Market participants are waiting for the CPI (Consumer Price Index) report which will be released tomorrow. According to economists polled by the Wall Street Journal, the report will reveal that headline inflation increased by 0.6% last month. If their predictions are correct this would be the largest increase since June 2022. This would take inflation from 3.2% in July to 3.6% last month.

The primary cause of this large increase in inflation is dramatically higher oil prices. Oil has risen almost 25% since the end of July. Also, the cost of housing has increased by approximately 7.7% in the past year, considerably higher than the housing and rent costs before the pandemic.

That being said, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate (fed funds rate) unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will not raise rates next week is 93%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current rate has been 90% or higher for a month now. The probability indicator for rate hikes by the Fed is predicting that there is a 59.3% probability that the Fed will stay the course in November with a 38.1% probability of a ¼% rate hike.

According to a poll conducted by Reuters News service, “The Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at the end of its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting and probably wait until the April-June period of 2024 or later before cutting it, according to economists in a Reuters poll.”

This is in line with recent statements from Chairman Powell who has been on record since his speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium to maintain the current elevated interest rates "higher for longer". The chairman and other members of the Federal Reserve have been resolute as they continue to keep the possibility of additional rate hikes on the table if needed to reach its 2% inflation target.

The result of the forecast for tomorrow's CPI report combined with next week’s FOMC meeting was traders actively selling gold futures which traded to a low of $1929.80 in trading this morning. As of 4:40 PM EDT, the most active December contract of gold futures is currently down $11.40 and fixed at $1935.80. Spot gold is also under pressure and currently fixed at $1912.50 according to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index). The KGX revealed that the vast majority of today’s decline is directly attributable to market participants bidding the precious yellow metal lower by $8.30 with a $1.00 decline directly attributable to fractional dollar strength resulting in today’s total decline of $9.30.

Today’s decline in gold is the result of traders factoring in the most recent predictions for tomorrow’s inflation report. We could see extreme volatility tomorrow if the report differs to any large extent from the current forecast.

Gary S. Wagner

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver firmer ahead of key U.S. inflation report

Gold and silver prices are modestly up in quieter midday U.S. trading Monday. A solidly lower U.S. dollar index is a supportive outside market element for the metals on this day. Short covering in the gold and silver futures markets is also featured ahead of a key U.S. inflation report on Wednesday. December gold was last up $5.10 at $1,947.80 and December silver was up $0.206 at $23.38.

If you have not done so, I encourage you to try out my new “Markets Front Burner” email report. I think it’s one of my best products yet (free!) in my 40-year quest to help you become a better trader and investor. It’s a weekly email report that highlights the latest developments in the marketplace, and how you can better manage those developments in your own trading/investing. Just try it for one week—I guarantee you will want to keep it coming. Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter .

Traders and investors are waiting for the next major U.S. data point, which is the consumer price index report for August out Wednesday morning. The CPI is expected to be up 4.3%, year-on-year, versus a 4.7% rise in the July report.

The European Central Bank also holds its regular monetary policy meeting this week and is expected to slightly raise its main interest rate by 0.25 percent.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are up just a bit at midday, as equities traders are also awaiting the CPI report Wednesday.

In overnight news, a Wall Street Journal headline reads, “An important shift in Fed officials’ stance is under way.” In the article, reporter Nick Timiraos, who is said to have close ties with the Fed, writes that Fed officials, including Chairman Jay Powell, now have a more balanced approach on monetary policy. That’s a dovish shift from the more hawkish approach the Fed had in recent months, which was one of erring on the side of raising interest rates too high, to make certain inflation is choked off. Now, the Fed is more worried about further interest rate increases causing an unnecessary U.S. recession.

Robust U.S. economic activity to support dollar, weigh on gold prices next week

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady trading around $87.50 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.294%.

There was no major U.S. economic data released Monday.

Technically, December gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the September high of $1,980.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the August low of $1,913.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,954.60 and then at $1,965.00. First support is seen at $1,939.00 and then at $1,925.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5?

December silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $24.655. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $22.585. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $23.515 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at the September low of $23.13 and then at $23.00 Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 900 points at 380.65 cents today. Prices closed near the session high. The copper bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 390.85 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 367.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 385.00 cents and then at 388.00 cents. First support is seen at 375.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 371.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Dollar strength wanes, gold pops to $1954 but quickly retreats from high

Gold futures opened at $1943.80 then rose to $1954 in one hour beginning at 9 o'clock EDT. This rise was not sustainable with gold giving back those gains and trading to a low of $1940 before slightly recovering. As of 5 PM EDT gold futures basis the most active December contract is currently fixed at $1942.60 which is a net gain of $0.10.

However, today's price range marks the first time that gold has gained on the day (although fractional) this week. Gold will finish fractionally higher on the day but lower on the week. There is however solid technical evidence that a support level was tested on Wednesday and Thursday and at least this week has held.

Gold finds possible technical support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Gold's short-term corrective cycle began after a high of $1980 was reached on Friday of last week and then traded lower for three consecutive days on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The weekly low at approximately $1940 occurred on Wednesday, September 6, and although gold has traded to a higher low yesterday and today it remains close to the weekly lows.

Yesterday we spoke about a potential technical level of support that occurs at $1939.20 which is based upon a Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%. The short-term data set used for this retracement begins at $1914 and concludes at last Friday's high of $1980.

A 61.8% price correction is an acceptable but deep retracement for a market in a bullish scenario. However, gold has been in a defined corrective period since the beginning of May. This means that on a technical basis, gold must challenge and take out the most recent high that occurs just above $2020 before we would get technical confirmation that this week's low marks the end of a correction and a bullish key reversal.

According to the CME's Fedwatch tool, there is a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will not implement another rate hike at the FOMC meeting later this month. Recent bearish market sentiment is the result of dollar strength and uncertainty as to how long the Federal Reserve will maintain the current elevated interest rates.

Earlier this week one of the more hawkish Federal Reserve officials Fed Governor Christopher Waller remarked about how recent data suggested that their monetary policy tightening has had a strong effect on inflation saying, "There is nothing that is saying we need to do anything imminent anytime soon… We can just sit there and wait for the data."

Market participants are now waiting for the CPI index report which will be published on Wednesday. They will look for information to see if the current level of inflation confirms that the U.S. economy can withstand interest rates at this elevated level. More importantly, they will look to see how inflation is responding to the Fed's restrictive monetary policy to determine whether recent steps have put inflation on a trajectory to reach its target of 2%.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Last week gold jumped close to the psychological threshold of $2,000 before slowing down on Thursday and Friday, while the US dollar showed recovery signals. Despite this time, the price of bullion remained above $1,950. Overall, the trend for the gold price still appears positive. Investors are, once again, in a wait-and-see mode. Indeed, we have just entered a week with a very busy macroeconomic agenda that could break the recent low volatility scenario.

The focus will be on central banks, starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, at which the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate hike from 5.25% to 5.50% after last month’s pause. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will likely move in the same direction, raising rates from 4.00% to 4.25%, while on Friday morning, the Bank of Japan will hold its traditional conference. Any dovish surprise, particularly from the Fed, could be positive for gold, with good chances of seeing a new attack to the $2,000 mark. Vice versa, if the US central bank opens the door to new raises (after the one already expected by the markets), stocks and gold could be negatively impacted.

The week’s busy agenda also includes the preliminary release of the US Q2 GDP and the initial jobless claim. Analysts expect GDP growth of 1.8% (compared to the previous +2.0%), while the jobless requests should remain steady or slightly grow. These data will be strictly monitored by the Fed for its next monetary policy decision and, of course, by gold traders looking for new catalysts that could help bullion continue its rally.

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price firmer in quieter trading; U.S. CPI next focal point

Gold prices are firmer and silver prices near steady in more quiet early U.S. trading Friday. More mild short covering is featured in gold futures, along with some perceived bargain hunting following recent losses. December gold was last up $4.80 at $1,947.30 and December silver was up $0.050 at $23.29.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are waiting for the next major U.S. data point, which will likely be the consumer price index report for August, out next Wednesday. Trading may remain quieter until that time.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down but not far below this week’s six-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $87.50 a barrel—not far below this week’s 10-month high. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.24%.

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U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes monthly wholesale trade inventories and consumer credit.

Technically, the gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at the September high of $1,980.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the August low of $1,913.60. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,954.50 and then at $1,965.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,940.00 and then at $1,925.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $24.655. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $22.585. First resistance is seen at $23.50 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $23.13 and then at $23.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Contact jwyckoff@kitco.com

www.kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

The gold market could hit $2,600 as U.S. dollar index falls below 104 – DeCarley Trading's Carley Garner

The U.S. dollar continues to dominate the gold market; however, momentum in the greenback could be running out of steam as the Federal Reserve is unlikely to continue to maintain its aggressive monetary policy stance through year-end, according to one market strategist.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Carley Garner, co-founder of the brokerage firm DeCarley Trading, said that gold, as it holds critical support levels, is in a good position to hit new all-time highs when the U.S. dollar's momentum starts to fade.

Garner said she expects the U.S. dollar index to hold resistance below 105 points. Ultimately, she sees the U.S. dollar eventually retesting support at 99 points.

"If we break below that support level, we are probably going back towards the mid-nineties and if that's the case, that's a game changer for gold," she said. "Suddenly, we are not looking at $2,000 gold but new all-time highs."

Garner said a breakdown in the U.S. dollar could eventually push gold prices to $2,600 an ounce.

Garner said that one of the reasons why she sees so much potential in gold is because of how resilient it has been in the last few months. While bond yields in the U.S. remain near 15-year highs above 4%, gold has held critical support around its 20-day moving average.

A peak in long-term yields would remove another headwind for gold, she said.

"We are basically sitting on the biggest net short in bonds on record and at some point, that is going to unwind itself," Garner said. "This trade will be unwound and that is going to push interest rates lower. When positioning is this extreme, it's just a matter of time."

One factor that could spark a selloff is if the Federal Reserve shifts to a more neutral monetary policy stance, leaving interest rates unchanged through year-end. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a more than 90% chance of no rate hike later this month and only a 50/50 chance of a rate hike in November.

  Rising bond yields drive outflows from gold ETFs, but long-term support remains

While Garner is bullish on gold, she added that the market could remain volatile in the near term, with prices potentially retesting support around $1,900 an ounce. She said that if bearish momentum picks up, she would not be surprised to see prices fall to $1,980 an ounce.

"I wouldn't give up on it unless maybe we broke below, let's say $1,800," she said.

Although Garner is bullish on gold, she does not have the same enthusiasm for silver. She said that she would rather play a breakout in the precious metals through gold.

"Eventually, silver will outperform gold, but I don't think it's going to happen now," she said. "I think the only thing I can say is that on a shorter time frame, silver is usually a buy around $20."

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Contact nchristensen@kitco.com

www.kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver down as USDX rallies, U.S. Treasury yields up-tick

Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, as a strong U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields have the metals market sellers in charge on this day. December gold was last down $14.00 at $1,953.10 and December silver was down $0.582 at $23.975.

The metals market bulls were also discouraged as China reported some more downbeat economic data. Its Caixin services purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 51.8 is August versus 54.1 July and was below expectations of 53.5. The Caixin composite PMI was 51.7 versus 51.9 July. Recent weaker China economic data suggests less demand for raw commodities, including the metals.

Asian stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. History shows the months of September and October can be rocky for the stock and financial markets.

Meantime, the Australia’s central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged but said further interest rate hikes may be necessary.

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The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar solidly up and at a six-month high. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly up and trading around $87.75 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose above $90 a barrel today. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching around 4.2%.

Technically, December gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are still in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the August low of $1,913.60. First resistance is seen at $1,965.00 and then at today’s high of $1,972.60. First support is seen at $1,950.00 and then at $1,940.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

December silver futures bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $25.425. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $22.585. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $24.655 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $23.815 and then at $23.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 20 points at 385.40 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The copper bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, prices are starting to trend up. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 403.75 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 367.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 387.25 cents and then at last week’s high of 390.85 cents. First support is seen at 380.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 378.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver correcting – buy the Labor Day dip?

As I write on this Labor Day Monday, silver is now 4% off last week's $25 high, with the price back at $24 right now, as gold is 0.5% off its $1950 high of last week, currently trading at $1940.

The Daily gold chart:

If you made the flip from silver to gold at $24.20 (when I first suggested it) or higher, then you are still in a nicely profitable trade and have likely preserved your mental capital, which may come in handy for the flip from gold back into silver.

The daily silver chart below:

I'm not sure the time to flip into silver is now, and I still believe (as I have suggested since I initially spotted this trade opportunity) that one should be nimble in this market and be ready to be in and out (and vice versa) at the drop of a dime if trying to put on trades.

A look at the gold/silver ratio shows that it has found support as metals have run into resistance.

Prudent traders, in fact, would not be wrong to take profit altogether, in my opinion. It seems very plausible to me that the ratio will find its way back to the top of the range denoted by the yellow rectangle, which will pressure metals further.

Yet another opportunity to add to physical stacks at lower prices looks to be on the horizon.

By

Jonathan Da Silva

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley