Gold, silver firmer despite hotter U.S. CPI and rising bond yields
Gold and silver prices are a bit higher in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. The precious metals bulls are holding their own despite a stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report and rising U.S. Treasury yields this week. December gold was last up $1.80 at $1,936.10 and December silver was up $0.23 at $22.995.
The gold market lost some of its overnight gains in early U.S. trading when the U.S. retail sales report for September showed a much-stronger-than-expected gain of 0.7% on the month, versus market expectations for a 0.3% rise. The report boosted U.S. Treasury yields and falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see more interest rate increases in the coming months.
Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lightly lower at midday. While the Israeli-Hamas war remains near the front burner of the marketplace, there have been no major, markets-moving developments over the past week. Traders and investors are starting to focus more on other, more normal economic and business factors that are impacting the marketplace, such as economic reports, earnings reports and central bank rhetoric. But make no mistake, the Middle East conflict will not just fade away and there are likely to be markets-moving surprises develop in the coming days and weeks.
Rising tail risks in the market warrant holding more than 6% of your portfolio in gold – BIS' Zöllner
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.819%.
Technically, December gold futures see recent price action suggesting a market bottom is in place. However, the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the October low of $1,823.50. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $1,946.20 and then at $1,950.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,921.20 and then at $1,913.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
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December silver futures prices hit a three-week high today and scored a bullish “outside day” up. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.60. First resistance is seen at today's high of $23.18 and then at $23.50. Next support is seen at today's low of $22.535 and then at $22.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 70 points at 357.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a nearly 12-month low early on today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 378.60 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 340.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 360.55 cents and then at 365.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 353.15 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.
By
Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News
Tim Moseley