Gold firmer but loses altitude as USDX, bond yields spike up
Gold prices are posting modest gains in midday U.S. trading Thursday but the bulls are fading fast after solid early gains have been erased. The precious metals markets are being buffeted today by strong gains in the U.S. dollar index and a big spike up in U.S. Treasury yields. June gold futures were last up $5.70 at $1,874.30 and May Comex silver was last down $0.037 at $22.33 an ounce.
Traders Thursday were still digesting the Federal Reserve move Wednesday afternoon to raise its key interest rate, the Fed funds rate, by 0.5%, which was expected by the marketplace. After some initial exuberance by the marketplace that the Fed was becoming less hawkish on U.S. monetary policy, traders and investors came to their senses and realized nothing has changed: the Fed will have to remain aggressive and hawkish in its fight to tame inflation that is presently still out of control.
The key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices down and trading around $107.00 a barrel after trading above $111.00 earlier today. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher at midday and hit a new 20-year high. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 3.082%, which is a 3.5-year high. It’s been quite a while since Treasury bond futures prices were down over 3 full points in a day.
Gold remains on track as Federal Reserve lays out path for 50-bps rate hikes – State Street's Milling-Stanley
Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are sharply lower at midday and have taken back all of Wednesday’s big gains and then some. The keener risk aversion in the marketplace should keep a floor under the safe-haven metals prices at their present levels.
The Bank of England is at its regular monetary policy meeting raised its interest rate by 0.25%. The BOE raised its annual inflation forecast significantly, to 10.25%. A rate hike was expected but the inflation forecast was a surprise on the upside.
Traders and investors are now awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for April. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in at up 400,000, which compares to a rise of 431,000 in the March report.
Technically, June gold futures see a downtrend is place on the daily bar chart. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $1,935.50. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at $1,900.00 and then at today’s high of $1,910.70. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $1,861.10 and then at this week’s low of $1,849.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0
May silver futures see a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $21.445. First resistance is seen at $23.00 and then at today’s high of $23.245. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $22.135 and then at this week’s low of $22.12. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
May N.Y. copper closed down 495 points at 427.90 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 450.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 411.65 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 438.55 cents and then at today’s high of 442.00 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 424.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 419.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News
Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips