Gold Price News: Gold Falls Back as Geopolitical Risks Ease

Gold Price News: Gold Falls Back as Geopolitical Risks Ease

Gold prices fell sharply at the start of the week, pulling back from near all-time highs as geopolitical risks were seen easing.

Prices fell to around $2,320 an ounce by Tuesday afternoon, down from around $2,330 an ounce in late deals on Monday, and from highs of over $2,400 at the end of the previous week.

Gold’s falling price on Monday and Tuesday was linked to an easing of geopolitical tensions after it became clear that Israel and Iran were not willing to enter into an escalating round of retaliatory air strikes that would risk a broader confrontation. Recent tensions in the Middle-East, as well as Russia and Ukraine, have increased the appeal of safe-haven assets like precious metals.

On the economic front, US manufacturing PMI figures for April released Tuesday came in weaker than the markets had expected, posting a four-month low. Signs of a weaker-than-expected economy strengthen the case for interest rate cuts, which are seen as supportive for non-interest-bearing assets like gold. However, the markets still appear to be dialling back expectations of as many as three interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year.

Looking ahead, Wednesday will see the release of monthly US durable goods orders for March, providing the latest snapshot on the state of the US economy.

Arguably more important will be the US GDP growth rate data for Q1 on Thursday, as well as the latest weekly initial jobless claims figures, both of which will play into expectations for the US Fed’s stance on monetary policy in the coming months.

Frank Watson

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Sharp daily declines don’t spell the end of gold’s bull run OANDA’s Kelvin Wong

Sharp daily declines don’t spell the end of gold’s bull run – OANDA’s Kelvin Wong

While gold has posted a pair of disappointing days this week, the technical picture still points to further price gains for the precious metal, according to OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong.

“The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance,” Wong wrote. “It tumbled by -2.7% on Monday, 22 April, its worst daily performance since 13 June 2022 (almost two years), and continued to extend its losses in yesterday’s (23 April) Asian session.”

Wong noted that yesterday’s intraday low of $2,291 represents an accumulated loss of 5.8% from spot gold’s recent all-time high of $2,431 set on April 12.

“Now, the golden question for Gold (XAU/USD); can the bulls be revived or is it game over for its medium-term uptrend that kickstarted in mid-February 2024?” he asked.

Wong highlights several technical indicators that he believes support gold’s medium-term uptrend, beginning with the gold/copper ratio, which is the spot price of gold divided by the price of high-grade copper futures in USD.

“[T]he ratio removes the US dollar exchange rate effect from the equation which in turn solely measures the relative value or outperformance or underperformance of gold against copper,” he said. “If the ratio of Gold/Copper declines steadily, it suggests that global economic growth is likely in an expansionary mode, and vice versa when the Gold/Copper ratio rises due to a relatively higher demand for gold for hedging purposes due to economic growth slowdown or uncertainties.”

Wong points out that the Gold/Copper ratio has stayed above support since late November and has remained within a major ascending channel in place since Oct. 15, 2021. “Therefore, the current configuration of the ratio suggests that there is still a relatively higher demand for gold as a hedging asset for stagflation risk.”

Another technical indicator that helps make the case for the precious metal to post further gains is the 50-day moving average (MA), which continues to support the spot gold price.

“Based on a technical analysis standpoint, the price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) are still trading above its 50-day moving average which confluences with a key medium-term pivotal support zone of US$2,260/2,210 that is defined by the former major ascending channel’s upper boundary from 28 September 2022, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent six-month impulsive upmove sequence from 6 October 2023 low to 12 April 2024 high,” Wong said. “In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator is still holding above a key parallel support at around the 50 level after its exit from the overbought region which suggests that the medium-term uptrend phase from 14 February 2024 low remains intact.”

“A clearance above US$2,420 may see the next medium-term resistance coming in at US$2,540,” he added. “On the flip side, a break below the US$2,210 lower limit of the key medium-term pivotal support zone sees an extension of the ongoing corrective decline within its major uptrend phase to expose the long-term pivotal support zone of US$2,075/2,035 (also the 200-day moving average).”

Gold’s price action has been volatile on Wednesday, with spot gold trading in a range between $2,311.81 and $2,337.38 per ounce, but it has thus far managed to keep from posting a third consecutive down day. At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $2,322.18 per ounce, exactly flat on the session.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

Tim Moseley

Record gold prices are driving historic contract volumes across the metals complex CME Group

Record gold prices are driving historic contract volumes across the metals complex – CME Group

Gold’s recent surge to new all-time highs has coincided with historic performances for a wide range of metals contracts, including copper, silver, platinum, and lithium, according to the recently published Q2 2024 Metals Update from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

The CME wrote that sky-high gold prices drove futures volumes to their highest levels in years during the first quarter of 2024.

“Volume and open interest in Gold futures (GC) and Micro Gold futures (MGC) has surged in response to higher prices,” they said. “March Gold (GC) ADV of 332.6K contracts was its highest since July 2020, while OI of 540.6k on March 13, 2024, was its highest since March 2022. March Micro Gold (MGC) ADV of 75.4K was its highest since December 2020, while OI of 41.5K contracts on March 21, 2024, was its highest since January 2021.”

The CME also set its all-time daily volume record the day gold broke above $2,400 per ounce, with volume in its metals complex reaching a record 1,728,362 contracts on Friday, April 12, breaking the previous record of 1,670,920 contracts set on February 28, 2020.

“Amid shifting geopolitical conditions directly impacting the global metals trade and related sectors, market participants are utilizing our entire suite of metals products to adjust their portfolios and manage risk,” said Jin Hennig, Managing Director and Global Head of Metals at CME Group.

Gold’s standout price performance also drove other metals complex contract volumes to historic highs. April 12 was the third highest volume day on record across the precious metals complex, with 1,461,859 total contracts traded, the second highest for metals options, with 305,732 contracts traded, the second highest volume day on record for Micro Gold futures, with 311,919, and the third highest for Micro Silver futures, with 58,485 contracts traded.

It also saw the single day volume record for Micro Copper futures with 16,597, and was a top-ten volume day for the base metals complex with 265,021 total contracts changing hands.

April 12 was a momentous day for other reasons, as the CME, in coordination with the London Metal Exchange, enacted the most comprehensive limitation on Russian exports to date: a ban on all Russian metal produced after that day. The move was made to bring the two exchanges into compliance with the latest U.S. and UK sanctions imposed in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The ban was put in place to hamper Russia’s ability to profit from the export of metal produced by companies such as Rusal (aluminum) and Nornickel (nickel) which help the country fund its ongoing military operations in Ukraine.

The CME told Reuters that they “are reviewing and will communicate any impact to our markets,” adding that they “do not disclose the origin or brands of the eligible or registered metal we have in store and that is consistent across all of our physically delivered markets.”

The red-hot precious metals market has also driven platinum contracts on the CME to record volume levels. “For the first time since 2018 platinum and palladium prices are near parity,” they said.“Platinum volumes reached record levels in March trading over 42K contracts on average per day, including an all-time high day of 60,410 contracts on March 19.”

“Palladium (PA) saw average daily volume in February of over 8K contracts, its highest since February 2014, while YTD average open interest of 21.6K is up 36% vs. 15.8K in 2023,” they noted.

Lithium futures on the CME have also benefitted from the ongoing green energy transition. “Q1 trading volumes in lithium hydroxide has already eclipsed the volume for the entire year last year,” they said. “Over 320 contracts have traded per day on average in Q1, up over 2000% compared to the same period last year. Open interest has surged to over 24K contracts as of April 2.”

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

 

Tim Moseley

A Strategic Masterstroke: Blugenics Harnesses Markethive’s Expertise for the Launch of Gaditana Original

A Strategic Masterstroke: Blugenics Harnesses Markethive's Expertise for the Launch of Gaditana Original

Experience the game-changing potential of Markethive, the first-ever market network built on blockchain technology. With its decentralized and transparent nature, this groundbreaking innovation empowers Blugenics, a company dedicated to its customers and the creator of Gatitana Original, the purest superfood on earth, to connect with customers like never before. Say goodbye to traditional marketing methods and hello to a new era of customer acquisition. 

Blugenics Selects Markethive For Revolutionary Customer Acquisition Initiative

After years of prayer, the divinely inspired vision for Markethive is now becoming a reality. In an exclusive and unprecedented partnership, we have established a comprehensive socket connection between Markethive and Blugenics, creating seamless inter-process communication and allowing our storefronts to link directly to their system. This milestone marks the beginning of a new era as the full potential of a fully functional market network is unleashed upon the world. This is just the beginning of our journey together, and we're excited to have you as part of this exclusive collaboration.

Markethive is embarking on a groundbreaking venture spearheaded by Chris Corey and guided by Markethive CEO Thomas Prendergast. In a synergistic collaboration between Markethive engineers and the Blugenics marketing team, we're developing all forms of state-of-the-art marketing material for distributor acquisition and customers. This innovative project heralds a new era for Markethive, and we're eagerly anticipating its impact on our community.

Thomas recently prayed to the Lord to reveal a suitable business partner who shares his commitment to prioritizing customers' needs. Paraphrasing,

“Lord, if you want Markethive to be unveiled and for us to have a company that will lock arms with us that has a customer-centric product, can’t you just send it to me, Lord, because I can't find one!” 

Only days later, Thomas received a call from his friend Jeff, who introduced him to David Hunter, the president of Blugenics. During their conversation, Thomas felt a sense of tranquility and optimism. After carefully considering the gentleman's words, Thomas mentioned that Markethive would require a socket connection to fully utilize its capabilities and unlock its full potential. David replied that they had already searched the web and wanted to collaborate with Markethive. David then informed Thomas that the socket connection was already up and running, and all that was needed was for him to verify it. 

The Fluke Discovery Of Phytoplankton: The Tiny Giants of the Ocean

Phytoplankton, the microscopic powerhouses of the sea, are the unsung heroes of the marine world. Despite their small size, they are responsible for producing a significant portion of the oxygen we breathe and serve as the foundation of the aquatic food chain, making them essential for our planet's health and our own survival. 

In 2005, phytoplankton was initially intended to serve as a food source for commercial shellfish. However, its significance extends far beyond its utility as a food source. Tom Harper's personal story highlights the unexpected discovery of phytoplankton's profound impact on human health and wellness. Tom Harper, a pioneer in the field, shares his story of how he discovered marine phytoplankton for human use and how it positively impacted his health and well-being.

The news of phytoplankton's restorative powers quickly gained traction and became the talk of the town, inspiring many to try it. This surge in popularity led to a plethora of personal accounts from individuals who experienced remarkable health transformations, shaping a new vision for the future of nutrition. 

Introducing Blugenics Gatitana Original

Gatitana Original has been available in Canada for the past eight years under the name “Karen Phytoplankton.” It has been extensively market-tested in thousands of pharmacies and retail chains, including Kroger and Costco. 

The drink was named in honor of David's mother, Karen Hunter, who sadly passed away from cancer in 1993. With its proven track record and impressive customer testimonials, Karen Phytoplankton established itself as Canada's best-reviewed supplement, and it was only 18% of the potency we are launching for you today.

Today, we are thrilled to introduce Gatitana Original to you. This formula boasts an even higher potency than the original formula. Its customer testimonial base is filled with inspiring stories of improved quality of life that would have been considered impossible in the past. Get ready to experience a new level of health and wellness that will revolutionize the way you think about nutrition and potentially transform your life.

For the first time in history, the plant that is the origin of life, food, and nutrition and sustains the oceanic ecosystem is available for us all. Introducing the original superfood, a raw enzyme-active marvel of nature that transcends conventional supplementation. 


Image: One example of the forthcoming landing pages for Gatitana Source: Markethive

The Power of Collaboration: A New Era in Health Marketing

The collaboration between Markethiive and Blugenics has enabled Gaditana Original to expand its reach and ship to four significant countries, including the United States, Canada, Mexico, Australia, and the Bahama Islands. More countries will soon open to help more people worldwide. 

This development brings a unique opportunity for people worldwide to experience the benefits of this ancient, original base food. Ironically, after centuries of being overlooked, it's only now that this plant is being recognized for its true value and offered in its pure form, marking a significant moment in history.

Gaditana Original is a truly unique product, and we're excited to introduce you to the exceptional platform that will help us share it with the world. Meet Markethive, a cutting-edge marketing powerhouse. Our comprehensive suite of tools encompasses a wide range of efficient customer and distributor acquisition methods, including capture pages, email marketing, social media, broadcasting autoresponders, press release platforms, viral blogging systems, and many more innovative solutions. These resources equip entrepreneurs with diverse tools to amplify their business growth and reach new heights. 

The Markethive team is currently building the group blogs, autoresponders, and capture pages for everyone to use that will all be coded to the individual group members. Leveraging the power of blockchain technology, these tools work in harmony to maximize their effectiveness, resulting in a powerful synergy that amplifies your team's success as the number of distributors grows.

By joining the Blugenics Customer Acquisition Group within Markethive, you're not just becoming part of a team but gaining access to a wealth of resources and support. Our systems are already built for you and are ready to help you and your teams start making progress immediately. We're here to support your journey to success, providing you with the tools and guidance you need to thrive. 

This partnership between Markethive, the premier marketing platform, and Blugenics, the ultimate superfood, creates a powerful synergy – a match made in heaven. If you're ready to enhance your capabilities and empower yourself, we cordially invite you to join us. Your journey to success starts here ➤ https://markethive.com/group/customeracquisition

 


 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold price could drop through the summer but will end the year around 2500 – Capitalight’s Chantelle Schieven

Gold price could drop through the summer but will end the year around $2,500 – Capitalight’s Chantelle Schieven

The gold market is seeing solid selling pressure after failing to hold its ground at $2,400 an ounce. Although the market has room to fall lower during the summer, one market analyst says that the precious metal remains in a solid position to rally by year-end.

In an interview with Kitco News, Chantell Schieven, Head of Research at Capitalight Research, said that not only is gold technically overbought, but it has also started its historical seasonal weak period. In this environment, Schieven noted that she sees gold prices potentially falling back to $2,150 an ounce, representing the March breakout level.

Although Schieven is looking for a correction in gold in the next few months, she remains a long-term bull. She said she is raising her year-end price target to $2,500 an ounce, up from $2,400 an ounce.

The comments come as June gold futures start the week with a more than 2% loss, last trading at $2,349.10 an ounce.

At the start of the year, Schieven was the most bullish analyst who participated in the London Bullion Market Association’s annual price forecast.

“It’s been kind of surprising to see gold take out all these levels, and while I do think it goes higher, I do think we need to see a bit of a pullback,” she said. “I don’t think gold goes all the way back to $2,000 or below, but we could see $2,100 before the end of the summer.”

Schieven said that the most significant reason she has turned near-term cautious on gold is due to shifting interest rate expectations that are supporting higher bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Markets are now pushing back the start of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle until after the summer.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see less than 20% chance of a rate cut in June. At the same time, the chance of a rate cut in July has dropped below 50%.

“Gold has broken a bit away from its fundamental drivers, and I think we are starting to see these drivers come back into focus, which can be negative for gold,” she said.

However, Schieven added that the gold market has become significantly more nuanced than just following bond yields and the U.S. dollar. Although the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates during the summer, it's unlikely to raise interest rates.

“The Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates this year. I expect to see them cut rates after the 2024 election, and that is when we will see gold prices climb higher and push towards $2,500 an ounce. The summer lows could prove to be a good time to buy for long-term investors.”

At the same time, Schieven said that she expects inflation to play a more critical role in gold’s price action. She pointed out that with the Federal Reserve holding firm on its monetary policy, higher interest rates mean that real rates will rise, lowering gold’s opportunity costs as a non-yielding asset.

“Ultimately, the Fed, even with their hawkish comments, continue to leave themselves room to lower interest rates,” she said. “They will be lowering interest rates even as inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target. The Federal Reserve can’t afford to maintain higher interest rates because of rising debt levels.”

Looking beyond U.S. monetary policy, Schieven said that she expects gold to remain an attractive safe-haven asset. Although the global economy has seen relatively better-than-expected growth so far this year, Schieven said she has not entirely dismissed the threat of a recession.

She added that rising U.S. debt will strangle economic growth as more money is thrown at just servicing its debt. In March, economists at Bank of America noted that U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days. Schieven pointed out that this is a significant reason why central banks will continue to buy gold.

“Nobody wants our debt right now,” she said. “As the debt grows, it's not surprising that central banks want fewer U.S. dollars and want to diversify their holdings.”

Finally, Schieven said that U.S. geopolitical instability as the 2024 election draws closer will also provide new support for gold.

“I don’t really know how to put this, but neither choice is that great. No matter who gets elected, deficits will still rise, and the U.S. dollar will still be devalued,” she said. “Those things are not good for the U.S., but they are certainly good for gold.”

Looking through higher volatility this year, Schieven said that gold remains in a long-term uptrend. She pointed out that during the 1970s, higher inflation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical turmoil caused gold prices to double.

While that might be an unlikely scenario today, Schieven said that it is not out of the question.

“We do not think it is out of line to look for a $3300+ gold price over the next 5-6 years,” Schieven wrote in a recent report.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold has a new buyer – Lobo Tiggre

Gold has a new buyer – Lobo Tiggre

Gold has a new buyer – Lobo Tiggre Gold's recent surge has been largely attributed to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, but Lobo Tiggre, analyst and the Editor of the Independent Speculator says these are not the primary catalysts behind the rally. In a recent interview with Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, Lobo Tiggre challenged the conventional narrative surrounding gold’s price climb, which many credit to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel. "The geopolitical tensions are all the headlines right now. But gold's been ramping up now for a couple of months… So I don't think either can really be seen as the root cause here," Tiggre explains. Tiggre highlighted the emergence of new market participants beyond the usual central bank buyers: "There is a new buyer in this marketplace, but the central bank gold buying has propped gold up or held it up." This shift is significant, suggesting a broader base of demand that could sustain higher gold prices for longer. Gold’s ‘real’ all-time high While addressing the economy, Tiggre pointed out the misleading nature of nominal highs when discussing gold prices. With inflation adjustments, he argued, gold’s true value is considerably higher: "One, it's not an all-time high. It's a nominal high. If inflation adjusts, even using the government's nonsense, CPI numbers and real all-time high would be over $3,400 or $3,500." This perspective is particularly poignant in a time when inflation concerns are resurfacing. "The sticky inflation story is really important. The Fed has guided it's going to be cutting rates. And, you know, Paul Krugman told us just last year that we beat inflation. There wasn't a problem and it's gone, it's done, it's over," Tiggre remarked, capturing the current economic sentiment and its implications for gold. The Future of Gold As for the future, Tiggre remained bullish on gold, fueled not just by economic indicators but also by a broader recognition of its value in uncertain times. He suggested that even minor shifts in investor behavior could significantly impact gold demand and prices. "If 1% of the people around the world just decide, you know what, a little bit of safe haven metals, physical safe haven assets in my portfolio wouldn't be a bad thing, that will double your investment demand." To dive deeper into the gold market and its new ‘buyer,’ watch the full interview with Lobo Tiggre on Kitco News above. Kitco Media Jeremy Szafron Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Gold's recent surge has been largely attributed to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, but Lobo Tiggre, analyst and the Editor of the Independent Speculator says these are not the primary catalysts behind the rally.

In a recent interview with Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, Lobo Tiggre challenged the conventional narrative surrounding gold’s price climb, which many credit to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel.

"The geopolitical tensions are all the headlines right now. But gold's been ramping up now for a couple of months… So I don't think either can really be seen as the root cause here," Tiggre explains.

Tiggre highlighted the emergence of new market participants beyond the usual central bank buyers: "There is a new buyer in this marketplace, but the central bank gold buying has propped gold up or held it up."

This shift is significant, suggesting a broader base of demand that could sustain higher gold prices for longer.

Gold’s ‘real’ all-time high

While addressing the economy, Tiggre pointed out the misleading nature of nominal highs when discussing gold prices.

With inflation adjustments, he argued, gold’s true value is considerably higher: "One, it's not an all-time high. It's a nominal high. If inflation adjusts, even using the government's nonsense, CPI numbers and real all-time high would be over $3,400 or $3,500."

This perspective is particularly poignant in a time when inflation concerns are resurfacing.

"The sticky inflation story is really important. The Fed has guided it's going to be cutting rates. And, you know, Paul Krugman told us just last year that we beat inflation. There wasn't a problem and it's gone, it's done, it's over," Tiggre remarked, capturing the current economic sentiment and its implications for gold.

The Future of Gold

As for the future, Tiggre remained bullish on gold, fueled not just by economic indicators but also by a broader recognition of its value in uncertain times. He suggested that even minor shifts in investor behavior could significantly impact gold demand and prices.

"If 1% of the people around the world just decide, you know what, a little bit of safe haven metals, physical safe haven assets in my portfolio wouldn't be a bad thing, that will double your investment demand."

To dive deeper into the gold market and its new ‘buyer,’ watch the full interview with Lobo Tiggre on Kitco News above.

 

Kitco Media

Jeremy Szafron

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

 

Tim Moseley

CLA 2000: The Natural Way to Support a Healthy Body Composition

CLA 2000: The Natural Way to Support a Healthy Body Composition

Vitapost CLA 2000 is a natural supplement that provides conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) to support a healthy body composition. CLA is a fatty acid found in small amounts in foods like dairy and beef, but it can be difficult to get enough through diet alone. That's where CLA 2000 comes in.

What is CLA?

CLA is a type of omega-6 fatty acid that has been studied for its potential health benefits. Some research has suggested that CLA may help support a healthy body composition, especially when combined with exercise and a healthy diet.

Some studies have suggested CLA can help support a healthy body composition in the long term.

How CLA 2000 Works

CLA 2000 is made with 2000 milligrams of 80% concentrated CLA extract from safflower (Carthamus tinctorius). The CLA in the safflower oil is concentrated using a proprietary process, yielding a high percentage of CLA in the final product.

When taken daily, CLA 2000 supports a healthy body composition. The supplement is designed to be used in conjunction with exercise and a healthy diet for best results.

Benefits of CLA 2000

Research into the effects of CLA has suggested several potential benefits:

  • Supports a healthy body composition

  • May help support exercise and dieting goals

  • Natural way to supplement CLA into your diet

How to Use CLA 2000

CLA 2000 is easy to incorporate into your daily routine. Simply take the recommended dosage each day, along with a healthy diet and regular exercise.

It's important to note that while CLA may offer health benefits, it is not a magic solution. Sustainable weight management requires a combination of a balanced diet, regular physical activity, and healthy lifestyle habits.

Quality and Safety

CLA 2000 is made in the USA within an FDA-registered facility that follows Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) guidelines. The ingredients in the formula are sourced from both domestic and imported sources.

Vitapost is committed to providing high-quality, safe supplements to support your health and wellness goals. CLA 2000 undergoes rigorous testing to ensure purity and potency.

Final Thoughts

If you're looking for a natural way to support a healthy body composition, CLA 2000 may be worth considering. With 2000 milligrams of concentrated CLA per serving, this supplement provides a convenient way to increase your intake of this beneficial fatty acid.

Remember, supplements like CLA 2000 work best when combined with a balanced diet and regular exercise. Always consult with your healthcare provider before starting any new supplement regimen.

Ready to give CLA 2000 a try? Visit the Vitapost website to learn more and place your order today.

Tim Moseley

Main Street sows seeds of doubt for gold gains but Wall Street believes conflict will continue to propel prices

Main Street sows seeds of doubt for gold gains, but Wall Street believes conflict will continue to propel prices

Gold prices followed a now-familiar pattern this week, trading in an elevated range until geopolitics shocked the market to highs, followed by retracement to a higher floor.

Spot gold opened the week trading at $2,367 per ounce, and other than a short-lived sharp drop to the weekly low of $2,332 a half-hour after the North American open on Monday morning, the yellow metal seemed content to oscillate between $2,360 and $2,390 per ounce.

Then, a week after Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel sent spot prices to an all-time high above $2,426 per ounce came Israel’s response, which once again pushed gold back above $2,400 late Thursday evening. The market returned to its prior range, however, once it became clear that like Iran’s attack, this one was more demonstrative than destructive.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed both Wall Street and Main Street still betting on bullion to make further gains despite its rapid runup and lack of retracement.

“I am bullish for the coming week,” said Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “At this point, macro risks remain high with so many political situations volatile at the moment. As we saw overnight, I would not take much to spark a rally in gold.”

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, sees gold trading sideways next week. “Gold’s strength in the face of central banks deferring rate cuts is remarkable, but it is due for a short pause,” he said. “I do not expect a deep or long pullback, but at least a pause for a few days.”

Dennis Gartman, creator of the Gartman Letter, counts himself among the gold bulls for next week. “I wouldn't be surprised if gold took out its recent all-time highs in the next week or so,” he said. “Then it’s off to the races again.”

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Commodities Broker at RJO Futures, said geopolitical conflict will continue to push gold prices higher even if there’s no immediate escalation.

“There's still a lot of geopolitical uncertainties, if [the Israel strike] is it, if everything is ended, or if there's going to be more behind this,” he said.

“I think that's one of the reasons why gold is still bid, I think that's probably the main reason,” Pavilonis added. “Next week, I would expect us to be at elevated levels, I would say probably higher. It's flight to safety right now, and I think gold is obviously a place where you want to be. I would imagine we continue to the upside.”

Pavilonis reiterated that the Israel-Iran conflict will be the driving force for gold and other markets in the near term. “I think everything is just Middle East right now,” he said. “This is either going to just fall to the wayside and not be cared about anymore, or this is going to be one of those things where it draws more countries in and gold really starts to take off.”

“That's really what's taking center stage right now.”

This week, 14 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and while there was a noticeable shift to the sideways camp from last week, even fewer saw declining prices. Ten experts, or 71%, expected to see gold prices climb even higher next week, while three analysts, representing 21%, saw gold holding steady. Only one analyst, or 7% of those surveyed, predicted a price drop.

Meanwhile, 149 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors showing some nervousness about the precious metal’s prospects at these elevated levels. 95 retail traders, representing 64%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 29, or 19%, predicted it would be lower, while 25 respondents, or 17%, expect the precious metal to trend sideways in the week ahead.

With geopolitical risk sucking up all the oxygen in markets of late, it’s just as well that next week is another relatively light one for economic data. Still, traders will tear their eyes away from the news headlines to check New Home Sales for March on Tuesday, Durable Goods for March on Wednesday, Pending Home Sales, Jobless Claims and Advance Q1 GDP (including quarterly PCE) on Thursday, and March PCE and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, said gold is overdue for a pullback, but he still doesn’t see one coming.

“The market is overbought, and probably needs a selloff to release some of the pressure that could be building,” Newsom said. “But the trend remains up, and with geopolitical tensions expected to continue increasing from now through the US Presidential Election this coming November, gold will likely continue to find investment safe haven buying.”

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, also sees the yellow metal continuing its climb.

“The $2400 level has stalled the move for now, but with two instances of failed breakout there, bulls have had an open door to take profit from the breakout – yet support still keeps getting bought,” he noted. “I’m not sure if this is accumulation from a bigger player or whether it’s just rate expectations around FOMC, but the fact that the move has continued to draw bulls in at support makes me think that Gold’s bullish trend isn’t over yet.”

Everett Millman, Chief Market Analyst at Gainesville Coins, said the Middle East conflict has taken charge of the gold market, and in the absence of major economic news events, it’s likely to stay that way for some time.

“I think the obvious catalyst for gold remaining this high after that selloff we saw last Friday, it's absolutely tied to the escalation between Iran and Israel in the Middle East,” Millman said. “We have this lull period until we get to the June FOMC meeting to get a clearer idea of if the Fed is actually going to stick to its guns and be more hawkish. So that goes on the back burner, the whole rates conversation, and even how the economy is doing, until we get a significant de-escalation.”

Millman said that he’s thankful it’s not World War III, but it's still a lot worse than it was only a week or two ago. “I think that geopolitical premium is absolutely keeping gold afloat right now near the all-time highs,” he said. “Any time I see gold and the dollar rising at the same time, that is usually a pretty strong indication that markets are being mainly driven by a flight to safety or a flight to quality, and I don't see any other strong reasons for them to do that, except for fears over a larger conflict in the Middle East, or even just an escalation between Iran and Israel.”

“I think that could be very short-lived,” he added “We could see gold sell off again if we do get a de-escalation. But right now, I think that's the main thing that I'd be looking at.”

Millman said that he expects the gold market to remain fairly volatile next week. “That being the case, I think that the price range that traders and investors should be looking at has to widen a little bit,” he said. “It would still be shocking if gold moves, let's say, another $200 an ounce next week, but I think $100 in either direction, $2,500 on the high end, and back down to maybe $2,250 or $2,200, I don't think those are outside the realm of possibility.”

Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, said he remains bullish in the short and medium term, and sees even bigger gains for silver. “Still targeting Gold for $2700-2800,” he said. “Silver is the big catchup play. $30 then $50.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff still sees potential gains for gold prices next week. “Steady-higher as geopolitics still in play and charts are still bullish,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2,392.07 per ounce at the time of writing, up 0.55% on the day and 2.04% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

Tim Moseley

Solana SOL Flips Final Resistance Into Support

Solana (SOL) Flips Final Resistance Into Support; $250 In View

By Olivia Brooke – April 19, 2024

Prominent crypto analyst Jelle has drawn the cryptocurrency market’s attention to a recent development, particularly Solana’s (SOL) remarkable performance.

Renowned for its rapid transaction speeds and minimal fees, SOL has garnered attention for its upward trajectory, aiming to create a new all-time high.

Jelle’s latest analysis, supported by a comprehensive chart, reveals that Solana has effectively transformed its previous significant resistance level into a support level.

As expected, this critical shift indicates bullish sentiment surrounding the asset, accompanied by a Greed score 82. This development signals a potential upward trend for SOL, with Jelle projecting a trajectory toward surpassing the $250 mark in the summer months.

Solana’s Impressive Performance: Heading Towards New All-Time Highs

A recent chart shared by Jelle X’s account showcases Solana’s robust upward trajectory, signalling a significant rebound and sustained positive momentum. Solana experienced a period of consolidation and bearish trends. Nonetheless, the recent breakout indicates a shift in potential investor sentiment and market dynamics.

Over the last trading session, SOL traded around $145, signalling a 4.31% increase in the last 24 hours. This surge propels the market cap up by 3.23% to $64.7 billion. Similarly, Solana’s 24-hour volume has printed a 14.70% gain, surging to $5.8 billion.

Over the past year, Solana’s price has surged by 841%, reflecting a sustained upward trend. SOL trades 314.14% above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $47.08. Additionally, Solana’s trading data mirrors this northbound movement, with the daily close price surpassing the daily open price in 19 of the last 30 days. These trading days ended with green candle sticks, accounting for 63% of the observed period. In addition, Solana’s liquidity is high, represented by a 24-hour volume-to-market cap ratio of 0.1014.

Meanwhile, the Solana ecosystem’s rapid growth has resulted in liquidity flowing from SOL’s ecosystem to Coinbase Layer 2 (L2). According to a crypto analyst Rasgard, this influx suggests potential exponential growth for projects within the BASE ecosystem, with projections ranging from 10x to 100x shortly.

In light of this, market analysts and investors closely monitor Solana’s performance, recognizing its resilience and growing adoption.

The recent transition from resistance to support represents a technical milestone and solidifies Solana’s position as a notable project in the cryptocurrency space.

Furthermore, this transition signifies a noteworthy milestone for Solana, suggesting sustained momentum and investor confidence in its prospects. As SOL continues its ascent, investors may find reassurance in this strategic pivot, which could further solidify its position within the crypto market.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Olivia Brooke and posted on Zycrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Gold shines amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty

Gold shines amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty

Gold, the precious metal long revered as a safe-haven asset, experienced a respectable price increase on Friday, fueled by a confluence of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. As of 5:25 PM EDT, gold futures based on the most active June 2024 contract settled at $2,413.80, after factoring gains of $15.80, or 0.66%. Similarly, spot gold rose to $2,391.77, up $13.01, or 0.55%, reflecting the metal's allure in times of turmoil.

One of the primary catalysts for gold's ascent was the heightened concern over a potential escalation between Israel and Iran. Reports emerged earlier in the day that Israel had launched missile strikes on Iran, immediately fueling fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. This development sent shockwaves through the markets, prompting investors to seek refuge in the safe-haven properties of gold.

However, as the day progressed, the magnitude of the Israeli attack was clarified, with sources indicating that it was a limited-scale operation targeting Iranian facilities, leaving the country's nuclearinstallations unscathed. Additionally, Iranian officials stated that there were no plans to retaliate against Israel for the incident, easing some of the initial tensions.

Despite the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict, gold's upward trajectory remained intact, supported by a confluence of other factors. The U.S. dollar's weakness played a minor role, with the dollar index closing down 0.02% at 105.96, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies.

On the economic front, investors were faced with a mixed bag of data and signals. Strong economic indicators, including robust retail sales, an encouraging Philadelphia manufacturing PMI, and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, suggested a resilient U.S. economy. This, in turn, fueled speculation that the central bank might maintain its current restrictive monetary policy, keeping benchmark interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5% to combat persistent inflation.

The combination of geopolitical uncertainties and economic ambiguities contributed to a selloff in U.S. equities, with the NASDAQ Composite declining by 2%, the S&P 500 dropping 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 0.6%.

Market participants eagerly await the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data next Friday, which will provide crucial insights into the most recent inflationary trends and potentially influence the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions.

As the global economic landscape continues to evolve and geopolitical tensions ebb and flow, gold's allure as a safe haven remains steadfast, attracting investors seeking stability amidst uncertainty.

Gary S. Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

 

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter