Eyes on the Fed the ECB and the BOJ

Eyes on the Fed, the ECB, and the BOJ

Next week, markets will be digesting the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy statements.

There was a lot of optimism this week that the Fed was close to being done with its tightening cycle despite Powell's promises of at least two more rate hikes this year.

"The Fed is almost certain to hike its policy rate by 25bp to between 5.25% and 5.50% at next week's FOMC meeting, but we increasingly believe that will prove to be the peak," said Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth.

Behind this optimism was June's inflation data, which showed inflation sharply cooling in the U.S. The consumer price index rose 3% last month — the slowest pace in over two years. And the core CPI measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 4.8%, marking the slowest advance since 2021.

"Despite the 'higher for longer' rhetoric from officials, a more marked decline in core inflation and easing in labor market conditions in the second half of this year will eventually persuade the Fed to pivot and cut rates aggressively next year," Ashworth noted Friday.

For next week's FOMC statement, analysts will pay close attention to any changes to the inflation narrative and how strongly the Fed maintains its tightening bias.

"In his press conference, Chair Jerome Powell may even go as far as to stress that additional rate hikes this year are still necessary," Ashworth said. "Markets are unconvinced, however, and broadly agree with our view that the Fed is almost done tightening."

Before the Fed can signal that it's done raising rates, there will be a period of uncertainty and data dependence, said TD Securities senior commodity strategist Ryan McKay. And for gold, it could mean a pause before the next move higher.

"Speculators have been unwilling to fully buy into the bullish gold narrative," McKay said Friday. "Indeed, discretionary traders and investors have thus far remained on the sidelines for now. But, this also offers the potential for additional upside should Fed expectations turn more dovish, and this cohort begins deploying their dry-powder."

The ECB is also expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, with analysts paying close attention to ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments. Meanwhile, the BOJ is projected to keep rates steady and its yield curve control unchanged.

"It seems that while the BOJ stands pat, the other major central banks are tightening, and that should continue to drive that interest rate differential trade," Moya pointed out.

 

Data next week

Tuesday: U.S. CB consumer confidence

Wednesday: Fed decision, U.S. new home sales,

Thursday: ECB decision, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. durable goods orders, U.S. GDP Q2, U.S. pending home sales

Friday: BOJ decision, U.S. PCE Price Index

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Cardano 2023: 5 Pioneering Blockchain Projects Reshaping Industries

Cardano 2023: 5 Pioneering Blockchain Projects Reshaping Industries

By JEFF — 22 July 2023

Cardano 2023: 5 Pioneering Blockchain Projects Reshaping Industries

  • Cardano blockchain is witnessing significant growth with innovative projects spanning AI, telecoms, cloud storage, prediction markets, and meme-centric coins.
  • Five exciting projects on Cardano, including CardanoGPT, World Mobile, Iagon, Foreon Network, and Snek, are set to revolutionize various industries.

Cardano 2023: 5 Pioneering Blockchain Projects Reshaping Industries

Cardano, the third-generation Proof-of-Stake blockchain, is rapidly becoming a hub of groundbreaking projects, aiming to transform various industries through the power of blockchain technology. As we move through 2023, the Cardano ecosystem is bustling with new ventures, each offering unique solutions to reshape the future. Here are the top five most captivating Cardano projects poised to make a lasting impact:

1: CardanoGPT: Enhancing Cardano’s Potential with AI

CardanoGPT is a promising addition to the Cardano ecosystem, leveraging the potential of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology to enhance the functionalities and efficiency of Cardano-based projects. By driving innovation and collaboration, CardanoGPT is working alongside renowned projects to elevate their operations. Already having launched its operational MVP, ReplyADA, a dedicated Twitter bot for the Cardano ecosystem, the platform plans to introduce its utility token, $CGI, to further boost the project’s ecosystem.

Tweets by replyada

2: World Mobile: Empowering Connectivity in Underprivileged Regions

Built on the Cardano blockchain, World Mobile is on a mission to provide reliable and affordable connectivity to underprivileged regions, particularly in Africa. Utilizing a unique combination of satellite and terrestrial infrastructures, World Mobile aims to revolutionize internet access across the continent’s remotest areas.

3: Iagon: Decentralized Cloud Storage for Enhanced Security

Iagon is leading the charge in offering a secure, scalable, and efficient decentralized cloud storage solution on the Cardano blockchain. By leveraging a peer-to-peer network for data storage, Iagon ensures higher efficiency compared to traditional cloud storage providers.

4: Foreon Network: Empowering Decentralized Prediction Markets

Foreon Network is set to establish a decentralized prediction market platform on Cardano, enabling users to predict the outcomes of various future events, backed by a provably fair system. The project uses a unique blend of $FRN tokens and Foreon NFTs to ensure seamless operations.

5: Snek: The Playful Meme Coin on Cardano

Representing the lighter side of crypto, Snek is a meme coin launched on the Cardano blockchain. As a deflationary coin, its supply will decrease over time, potentially driving up its value. The project encourages community-driven decision-making, allowing users to directly influence its future.

These five trailblazing projects exemplify the versatility and robustness of the Cardano blockchain, showcasing its potential to revolutionize various industries and create exciting opportunities for crypto enthusiasts and investors alike.

Crypto News Flash does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to cryptocurrencies. Crypto News Flash is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned.

Article written by Jeff, and posted on the Crypto News Flash website.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

Tim Moseley

Market participants brace for the potential of more hikes after next week

Market participants brace for the potential of more hikes after next week

Members of the Federal Reserve tend to keep their future actions close to their chest revealing little insight as to any upcoming revisions to their aggressive monetary policy that has been in play since March 2022. While they have announced that they plan to implement two more quarter-percent rate hikes by the end of the year, many investors, economists, and analysts believe that next week’s rate hike will mark a conclusion to the aggressive campaign the Fed has undertaken to reduce inflationary pressures.

The CME’s FedWatch tool has conveyed an exceedingly high probability of a rate hike this month but is predicting a high probability that the next rate hike could be the last by the Federal Reserve this year. The probability that the Fed will raise rates next week has grown from 96.7% a week ago, to 99.2% yesterday. Today the CME’s probability indicator is now predicting a 99.8% probability that the Fed will raise rates next Wednesday.

At the same time if you look out to the three remaining FOMC meetings scheduled for this year there is a reasonable possibility that they will let rates stand between 5 ¼% and 5 ½% for the remainder of the year. The likelihood now stands at 84.9% that the Fed will pause and leave rates at their current levels in September, followed by a 70.8% probability that they will continue to maintain those levels in November, and a 65.3% probability that by the end of this year, the Federal Reserve’s benchmark terminal rate will stand pat between 5 ¼% and 5 ½%.

The question becomes will the written statement released after Wednesday’s meeting or comments made during the press conference by Chairman Powell allude to the potential that their aggressive rate hikes may be concluding? Members of the Federal Reserve especially the chairman is very guarded when it comes to monetary policies in recent history Powell’s statements might not express that possibility or even mention whether such discussions were on the table between Fed members during next week’s critical FOMC meeting.

It is this uncertainty that is once again moving gold to lower ground while at the same time strengthening the dollar. As of 6:20 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active August contract is down $7.00 and fixed at $1963.90. Today’s settlement price is just above the 100-day simple moving average. But it must be noted that gold traded to an intraday low that broke below both gold’s 100 and 50-day moving averages.

The dollar continues to gain traction gaining 0.21% in trading taking the dollar index to 100.81. It is quite feasible that we see continued dollar strength and lower gold prices before Wednesday’s conclusion of this month’s FOMC meeting. While there will be a lot of conjecture and assumptions on possibilities that might occur after the September meeting it seems unlikely that it will be revealed in the federal reserve statement released at the conclusion nor found in the words of Chairman Jerome Powell when he holds his standard press conference one’ half-hour after the meeting concludes.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

UK Government Firmly Rejects Proposal To Treat Crypto Like Gambling

UK Government Firmly Rejects Proposal To Treat Crypto Like Gambling

By Brenda Ngari – July 21, 2022

The United Kingdom’s HM Treasury has dismissed a House of Commons Treasury Committee recommendation to regulate the crypto industry like gambling, noting that it “firmly disagrees” with the committee’s view.

British Government Disagrees With Lawmakers’ Call

The British Finance Ministry has thwarted the idea of classing crypto trading as gambling.

Andrew Griffith, U.K. Economic Secretary to the Treasury, told parliament’s Treasury Committee on July 20 that the finance ministry “firmly disagrees” with its recent recommendations to regulate retail trading and investment activity in cryptocurrencies as gambling.

The law change was presented in May 2023 by a panel of British lawmakers. In its proposal, the committee argued that crypto assets had “no intrinsic value” and warned against regulating them as financial assets, as it could create a “halo effect” that tricks consumers into thinking that investing in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether is safe.

According to Griffith, such an approach would put the country at odds with globally agreed standards and could push crypto asset activity overseas. Additionally, regulating crypto like gambling would not address some risks, such as market manipulation or unacceptable disclosures associated with trading them.

Regulating Crypto As A Financial Service

The government response noted that it is already working on regulating the crypto market, and proposed legislation was introduced to parliament and debated in June.

The statement from the U.K. government further indicated that regulating crypto as financial assets is more suitable for addressing the risks of unbacked cryptocurrencies and creating the conditions necessary for safe innovation.

The rejection comes after the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak; last month announced plans to make the country a global Web3 hub. Sunak is intent on providing regulatory clarity concerning how crypto-focused businesses should register and operate within the UK. “We must embrace new innovations like web3, powered by blockchain technology, which will enable start-ups to flourish here and grow the economy,” Sunak posited at the time.

DISCLAIMER: None Of The Information You Read On ZyCrypto Should Be Regarded As Investment Advice. Cryptocurrencies Are Highly Volatile, Conduct Your Own Research Before Making Any Investment Decisions.

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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Tim Moseley

Gold encounters technical and fundamental resistance at 1980

Gold encounters technical and fundamental resistance at $1980

Gold futures are definitely under pressure today, with the most active August 2023 contract down $8.70 or 0.44% and fixed at $1972.10. The root cause is dollar strength that overcame fractional buying and still was able to take gold prices moderately lower. While gold futures declined by 0.44% the dollar gained 0.56% with the differential indicating that market participants were lightly bidding the precious yellow metal higher. Currently, the dollar index has moved back over 100 and is currently fixed at 100.545.

This can also be seen in spot gold pricing which according to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX) is currently fixed at $1969 per ounce, down $7.50 on the day. However, on closer inspection dollar strength reduced an ounce of gold by $10.50, and normal trading bid gold prices $3.00 higher resulting in today's decline.

This is quite different from silver pricing today which is also trading lower. Currently, the most active September 2023 futures contract is fixing silver prices at $24.95 down approximately $0.44. Spot silver is currently fixed at $24.72 after factoring in today's decline of $0.39. However, unlike gold prices silver traded lower from both dollar strength and market participants bidding silver lower. Dollar strength accounted for a decline of $0.13, and selling pressure by investors took an ounce of silver $0.26 lower resulting in today's $0.39 price decline.

In the case of gold, the fractional buying was a sign that market participants still believe that there is upside potential based on positive market sentiment that the Federal Reserve might only raise interest rates ¼%, rather than their recent announcement that they would raise rates by ¼% two more times this year. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 99.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at next week's FOMC meeting by ¼%. The FedWatch tool is predicting that after raising rates this month they will pause at the September meeting with the probability of that occurring at 83.9%, a 66.2% probability that they will continue to hold rates between 5 ¼% and 5 ½% in November, and a 60.8% probability that the Fed will do the same thing in December leaving rates where they will be after one more rate hike.

This differs from silver because the silver investors have implemented a round of aggressive profit taking moving both spot and futures prices back below $25. Silver futures traded to a double top Wednesday and today after hitting intraday highs at approximately $25.48. The editor of Kitco News, Neils Christensen interviewed Huw Roberts, the head of analytics at Quant Insight today where he said that “according to the firm's modeling, the silver price is about 5.7% overvalued." He said that fair value is around $23.86 an ounce. Adding that, “The signals we are starting to see in silver are getting interesting… The rally in silver has overshot its fundamentals."

Our technical studies have shown that it is highly probable that the recent decline in the dollar has concluded after the dollar index bottomed at 99.25 on Tuesday. In fact, since July the dollar index was trading well above 103. On July 6 the dollar hit an intraday high of 103.27 and began a strong decline in value trading lower for seven consecutive days resulting in recent lows in the dollar approximately 3% lower than the high achieved the first week of July. In other words, the dollar lost approximately 3% in value when compared to the basket of six currencies it is weighted against. We believe on a technical basis that the dollar index will increase short-term taking the index to approximately 101.50 before encountering any technical resistance.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

There is a reasonable probability the Fed will conclude its rate hikes this month

There is a reasonable probability the Fed will conclude its rate hikes this month

The CME Fed watch tool is predicting that there is a 99.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a ¼% rate hike on July 26 when the next FOMC meeting concludes. It is also likely that this month's rate hike will conclude the series of hikes by the Federal Reserve that began in March 2022. The latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) reports indicate that inflationary pressures are diminishing and getting closer to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

At its highest point, the CPI was at 9.1% and has now contracted to 3% in June. This combined with a decrease of 0.2% through June in the Producer Price Index (for all goods minus food and energy). A survey conducted by the University of Michigan revealed that consumer sentiment skyrocketed to 72.6% in July 13% above sentiment in June.

If the Fed is as they have long proclaimed "data dependent" then these recent reports demonstrate that the U.S. economy has contracted substantially bringing down the level of inflation.

The CME's probability indicator is forecasting an 87.9% probability that rates will be left where they are at the September FOMC meeting, a 71.8% probability in November, and a 64% probability in December.

An article penned by Avraham Shama an Opinion Contributor for THE HILL titled, "The Fed is raising interest rates again: it's a mistake that could spark a recession", warns that if the Fed wants the best serve the US economy it must stop raising rates to avoid a recession.

In his article, he addresses the fact that "the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell have been unable to recognize a heating or cooling economy in a timely fashion to take quarterly action to minimize the negative effects". He discusses a series of missteps beginning with monetary tightening by the Fed in 2019 prematurely which required a pivot to reverse that trend. He addressed the fact that the Federal Reserve waited too long before initiating the first rate hike in March 2022 when inflation was already above 8%.

Gold traded to its highest value this year during the first week of May when gold briefly touched $2083 and then corrected to a low of $1900 on June 20. Today gold futures basis the most active August contract is fractionally lower down $0.40 or 0.02% and fixed at $1980.40.

It is reasonable to assume that market sentiment will assume a much more bullish demeanor if it has clear knowledge that the series of rate hikes is over. More importantly, when the Federal Reserve does initiate its first rate cut which could occur as early as the first quarter of 2024 one would expect bullish market sentiment to return allowing gold to challenge the recent record highs just below $2100 per ounce.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold rallies as empowered bulls set sights on 2000

Gold rallies as empowered bulls set sights on $2,000

Gold prices are sharply up and hit a 2.5-month high in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Silver prices are also sharply up and hit a nine-week high. The charts have recently turned more bullish for both precious metals, which is inviting the technically based speculators to the long side of those markets. A weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report this morning is also supporting ideas the Federal Reserve can take its foot of the gas sooner, regarding its interest-rate-increase cycle. August gold was last up $26.40 at $1,983.00 and September silver was up $0.347 at $25.365.

June U.S. retail sales were reported up 0.2% versus expectations of a rise of 0.5%, month-on-month. This report, along with the U.S. employment report for June released in early July, seem to fall into the sweet spot for those market watchers looking for a soft landing for the U.S. economy. No U.S. and/or global recession setting in would be a scenario for better global demand for metals. Yet, global growth is not so strong as to prompt major central banks to continue tightening their monetary policies and raising interest rates, which would crimp demand for commodities.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday and hit new highs for the year. The U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts, also reflecting the upbeat trader and investor attitudes at present.

The U.S. dollar 'will die' with BRICS new currency, warns Robert Kiyosaki

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are up trading around $75.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.777%.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, August gold futures prices hit a 2.5-month high today. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,988.30 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at $1,972.00 and then at today’s low of $1,958.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

September silver futures prices hit a nine-week high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.645. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $25.405 and then at $25.85. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $24.815 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 85 points at 383.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 396.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and then at the July high of 395.40 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 380.30 cents and then at 374.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Narrow-Minded or Broad-Minded: How to Recognize Which One You Are

Narrow-Minded or Broad-Minded: How to Recognize Which One You Are

Narrow-mindedness can prevent individuals from experiencing new ideas and opportunities. On the other hand, broad-mindedness can lead to personal growth and an open-minded approach to life. But how do you know if you are narrow-minded or broad-minded?

According to experts, narrow-minded people tend to be resistant to change and new ideas. They may judge others harshly and dismiss opinions that do not align with their own. In contrast, broad-minded individuals are open to different perspectives and willing to consider new ideas. They tend to be more tolerant and accepting of others.

It is important to note that narrow-mindedness and broad-mindedness are not black and white concepts. People can fall somewhere on a spectrum between the two. Additionally, a person may be narrow-minded in one area of their life while being broad-minded in another. Understanding where you fall on this spectrum can help you identify areas for personal growth and development.

Understanding Narrow-Mindedness

Characteristics of Narrow-Minded People

Narrow-minded people tend to have a limited perspective and are often unwilling to consider alternative viewpoints. They may be rigid in their thinking and behavior, and resistant to change. They may also be judgmental, opinionated, and quick to dismiss ideas that do not align with their own beliefs.

According to an article by I Heart Intelligence, narrow-minded people often have a "know-it-all" attitude and are quick to offer unsolicited advice. They may also be prejudiced against people who are different from them, such as those from different cultures or with different lifestyles. Narrow-minded individuals may exhibit conventional behavior and resist new or innovative ideas.

Examples of Narrow-Minded Behavior

Narrow-minded behavior can manifest in various ways. For instance, a narrow-minded person may refuse to try new foods, listen to different kinds of music, or read books that challenge their beliefs. They may also be resistant to change in their personal or professional lives, and may be unwilling to learn new skills or take on new challenges.

In an article by Verywell Mind, it is noted that narrow-minded individuals may also be quick to judge others based on their appearance, beliefs, or lifestyle choices. They may hold onto outdated or incorrect beliefs, and may be unwilling to consider new information that contradicts their existing views.

Consequences of Being Narrow-Minded

Being narrow-minded can have negative consequences for individuals and society as a whole. Narrow-minded people may miss out on opportunities for personal growth and development, and may struggle to adapt to changing circumstances. They may also struggle to form meaningful relationships with others, as their rigid thinking and behavior can be off-putting to those who hold different beliefs.

In an article by Haas News, it is noted that narrow-mindedness can also have negative consequences for leaders in business and other fields. Leaders who are narrow-minded may struggle to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions, and may be less effective at motivating and inspiring their teams.

Overall, it is important to recognize the signs of narrow-mindedness and work to overcome them in order to achieve personal and professional growth.

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Understanding Broad-Mindedness

Characteristics of Broad-Minded People

Broad-minded people are characterized by their willingness to consider different perspectives and ideas. They are open to new experiences and are receptive to change. They have a curious nature and are interested in learning about the world around them. They are tolerant of other people's beliefs and opinions, even if they do not agree with them. Broad-minded people have a non-judgmental attitude and are respectful of others.

Examples of Broad-Minded Behavior

Broad-minded behavior can be seen in a variety of situations. For example, a broad-minded person may be willing to try new foods or travel to new places. They may be open to different types of music or art. They may be willing to listen to different viewpoints and consider other people's opinions. Broad-minded people are often good listeners and are willing to engage in meaningful conversations with others.

Benefits of Being Broad-Minded

Being broad-minded has many benefits. It allows people to be more receptive to new ideas and experiences, which can lead to personal growth and development. It also allows people to be more tolerant of others, which can lead to stronger relationships and a more peaceful world. Broad-minded people are often more creative and innovative, as they are able to think outside the box and come up with new solutions to problems.

In conclusion, broad-mindedness is an important trait to have in today's world. It allows people to be more receptive to new ideas and experiences, which can lead to personal growth and development. It also allows people to be more tolerant of others, which can lead to stronger relationships and a more peaceful world. Broad-minded people are often more creative and innovative, as they are able to think outside the box and come up with new solutions to problems.

The Spectrum of Mindsets

From Narrow to Broad

People have different ways of thinking and approaching situations. Some individuals have a narrow mindset, while others have a broad one. A narrow-minded person tends to have a limited perspective and is resistant to new ideas and experiences. On the other hand, a broad-minded person is open to new experiences and ideas and has a more flexible perspective.

The spectrum of mindsets ranges from narrow to broad, with most people falling somewhere in between. Those who have a narrow mindset tend to have a fixed view of the world and are less likely to embrace new experiences or learn new things. They prefer to stay within their comfort zone and are less likely to take risks or deviate from their routine.

In contrast, those with a broad mindset are more open to new experiences and are willing to learn new things. They are not afraid to take risks and are more likely to step out of their comfort zone. They have a more flexible perspective and are able to adapt to changing circumstances.

Influence of Personal Experiences

Personal experiences play a significant role in shaping a person's mindset. People who have had limited experiences tend to have a more narrow mindset, while those who have had diverse experiences tend to have a more broad mindset. For example, someone who has never traveled outside of their hometown may have a limited perspective on the world, while someone who has traveled extensively may have a more global perspective.

Personal experiences can also influence a person's ability to learn new things and adapt to new situations. Those who have had positive experiences with change and new experiences are more likely to embrace them in the future. In contrast, those who have had negative experiences may be more resistant to change and new experiences.

In conclusion, the spectrum of mindsets ranges from narrow to broad, with most people falling somewhere in between. Personal experiences play a significant role in shaping a person's mindset, and those who have had diverse experiences are more likely to have a broad mindset.

Identifying Your Own Mindset

Understanding your own mindset is the first step towards developing a broad-minded approach to life. It requires self-reflection, feedback from others, and a willingness to challenge your own beliefs and assumptions.

Self-Reflection

Self-reflection is the process of examining your own thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. It is a critical tool for identifying your own mindset. To reflect on your own mindset, consider the following questions:

  • What are your beliefs and assumptions about the world?
  • Do you tend to approach new ideas with curiosity or skepticism?
  • How do you react to change and conflict?
  • Are you open to feedback and willing to change your opinions?
  • Do you tend to judge others based on their beliefs or actions?

By answering these questions, you can gain a better understanding of your own mindset and identify areas where you may need to make changes.

Feedback from Others

Feedback from others can also be a valuable tool for identifying your own mindset. Ask friends, family members, or colleagues for their honest opinions about your approach to life. Consider the following questions:

  • Do others see you as open-minded or narrow-minded?
  • Do they feel comfortable sharing their opinions with you?
  • Do they feel like you are willing to listen to their perspectives?
  • Do they feel like you are judgmental or critical of their beliefs?

By asking for feedback from others, you can gain a new perspective on your own mindset and identify areas where you may need to make changes.

In summary, identifying your own mindset requires self-reflection and feedback from others. By being open to new ideas, willing to challenge your own beliefs, and receptive to feedback, you can develop a broad-minded approach to life that will help you grow and thrive.

How to Broaden Your Mindset

Embracing New Experiences

One of the best ways to broaden your mindset is to embrace new experiences. This can be anything from trying a new food to traveling to a new country. When you try new things, you expose yourself to different cultures, ideas, and ways of thinking. This can help you develop a broader perspective and become more open-minded.

To embrace new experiences, it's important to cultivate curiosity. This means being open to learning new things and exploring new ideas. You can do this by reading books, watching documentaries, or attending lectures on topics that interest you. You can also try new hobbies or activities that challenge you and push you out of your comfort zone.

Challenging Your Beliefs

Another way to broaden your mindset is to challenge your beliefs. This means being willing to question your assumptions and consider different perspectives. When you challenge your beliefs, you open yourself up to new ideas and ways of thinking.

To challenge your beliefs, it's important to be open-minded and willing to listen to others. This means engaging in conversations with people who have different opinions and perspectives than your own. You can also read books or articles that challenge your beliefs and force you to consider different viewpoints.

It's also important to be willing to change your mind. When you encounter new information or perspectives, be open to revising your beliefs. This doesn't mean you have to abandon your core values or principles, but it does mean being willing to reevaluate your assumptions and adjust your thinking accordingly.

In summary, broadening your mindset requires a willingness to embrace new experiences and challenge your beliefs. By cultivating curiosity and being open-minded, you can develop a broader perspective and become more adaptable to change.

The Role of Open-Mindedness in Different Fields

Open-mindedness is a crucial trait that helps individuals in different fields to be more receptive to new ideas and information. In this section, we will explore the role of open-mindedness in three different fields: Arts, Science, and History.

Arts

In the arts, open-mindedness is essential for creativity and innovation. Artists need to be open to new ideas and perspectives to create unique and original works of art. Being open-minded allows artists to explore new techniques, styles, and mediums, which can lead to groundbreaking works of art. Open-mindedness in the arts also helps to promote diversity and inclusivity, as artists can create works that represent a wide range of cultures and experiences.

Science

In science, open-mindedness is crucial for discovering new knowledge and advancing our understanding of the world. Scientists need to be open to new ideas and evidence, even if it contradicts their current beliefs or theories. Open-mindedness in science allows researchers to explore new hypotheses and theories, which can lead to breakthrough discoveries and advancements in their field. Being open-minded also helps scientists to collaborate and communicate effectively with their peers, which is essential for advancing scientific knowledge.

History

In history, open-mindedness is important for understanding different perspectives and interpretations of past events. Historians need to be open to different viewpoints and evidence, even if it challenges their current understanding of history. Open-mindedness in history allows researchers to explore different narratives and perspectives, which can lead to a more comprehensive understanding of past events. Being open-minded also helps historians to avoid bias and promote objectivity in their research.

In conclusion, open-mindedness plays a vital role in different fields such as arts, science, and history. Being open-minded allows individuals to explore new ideas and perspectives, which can lead to creativity, innovation, and advancements in their respective fields.

Understanding Narrow-Mindedness and Broad-Mindedness in Language

Synonyms

Narrow-mindedness is often used interchangeably with terms like bigotry, intolerance, and prejudice. It is the inability to consider different perspectives, ideas, or beliefs. On the other hand, broad-mindedness is often used interchangeably with open-mindedness, tolerance, and acceptance. It is the ability to consider and accept different perspectives, ideas, or beliefs.

Example Sentences

An example of narrow-mindedness is someone who refuses to acknowledge the validity of different religious beliefs. An example of broad-mindedness is someone who is accepting of different sexual orientations.

First Known Use

The first known use of the word "narrow-minded" was in the 1630s, while the first known use of the word "broad-minded" was in the 1820s.

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Dictionary Entries

According to Merriam-Webster, narrow-mindedness is defined as "not willing to accept opinions, beliefs, behaviors, etc. that are unusual or different from one's own." Broad-mindedness, on the other hand, is defined as "tolerant of varied views; inclined to condone minor departures from conventional behavior."

The editors of Merriam-Webster note that these definitions are programmatically compiled from online sources and may not always reflect current usage or nuances in meaning.

Word history and usage can be complex, and it is important to consider the context in which a word is used. It is also important to note that the usage of these terms may differ in different regions or cultures.

In summary, narrow-mindedness and broad-mindedness are two opposing attitudes towards different perspectives, beliefs, and ideas. While narrow-mindedness is associated with intolerance and prejudice, broad-mindedness is associated with acceptance and tolerance.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it's important to recognize the signs of narrow-mindedness and broaden one's perspective to become more open-minded. Being open-minded allows one to think critically and objectively, avoiding dogmatic and extreme views.

Arguing from a narrow-minded perspective can often lead to unnecessary conflict and petty arguments. Instead, one should strive to understand different viewpoints and engage in constructive dialogue, even if they don't agree with the other person's perspective.

By cultivating an open mind, one can expand their knowledge and grow as a person. It's important to remember that being open-minded doesn't mean abandoning one's beliefs or values, but rather being willing to consider other perspectives and adjust one's views accordingly.

Overall, being broad-minded allows for greater understanding and empathy towards others, and can lead to more meaningful and fulfilling interactions in all aspects of life.

Tim Moseley

Here’s Why AI May Be Extremely Dangerous Whether It’s Conscious or Not

Here’s Why AI May Be Extremely Dangerous — Whether It’s Conscious or Not

Artificial intelligence algorithms will soon reach a point of rapid self-improvement that threatens our ability to control them and poses great potential risk to humanity


By Tamlyn Hunt on May 25, 2023

“The idea that this stuff could actually get smarter than people…. I thought it was way off…. Obviously, I no longer think that,” Geoffrey Hinton, one of Google's top artificial intelligence scientists, also known as “the godfather of AI,” said after he quit his job in April so that he can warn about the dangers of this technology.

He’s not the only one worried. A 2023 survey of AI experts found that 36 percent fear that AI development may result in a “nuclear-level catastrophe.” Almost 28,000 people have signed on to an open letter written by the Future of Life Institute, including Steve Wozniak, Elon Musk, the CEOs of several AI companies and many other prominent technologists, asking for a six-month pause or a moratorium on new advanced AI development.

As a researcher in consciousness, I share these strong concerns about the rapid development of AI, and I am a co-signer of the Future of Life open letter.

Why are we all so concerned? In short: AI development is going way too fast.

The key issue is the profoundly rapid improvement in conversing among the new crop of advanced "chatbots," or what are technically called “large language models” (LLMs). With this coming “AI explosion,” we will probably have just one chance to get this right.

If we get it wrong, we may not live to tell the tale. This is not hyperbole.

This rapid acceleration promises to soon result in “artificial general intelligence” (AGI), and when that happens, AI will be able to improve itself with no human intervention. It will do this in the same way that, for example, Google’s AlphaZero AI learned how to play chess better than even the very best human or other AI chess players in just nine hours from when it was first turned on. It achieved this feat by playing itself millions of times over.

A team of Microsoft researchers analyzing OpenAI’s GPT-4, which I think is the best of the new advanced chatbots currently available, said it had, "sparks of advanced general intelligence" in a new preprint paper.

In testing GPT-4, it performed better than 90 percent of human test takers on the Uniform Bar Exam, a standardized test used to certify lawyers for practice in many states. That figure was up from just 10 percent in the previous GPT-3.5 version, which was trained on a smaller data set. They found similar improvements in dozens of other standardized tests.

Most of these tests are tests of reasoning. This is the main reason why Bubeck and his team concluded that GPT-4 “could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system.”

This pace of change is why Hinton told the New York Times: "Look at how it was five years ago and how it is now. Take the difference and propagate it forwards. That’s scary.” In a mid-May Senate hearing on the potential of AI, Sam Altman, the head of OpenAI called regulation “crucial.”

Once AI can improve itself, which may be not more than a few years away, and could in fact already be here now, we have no way of knowing what the AI will do or how we can control it. This is because superintelligent AI (which by definition can surpass humans in a broad range of activities) will—and this is what I worry about the most—be able to run circles around programmers and any other human by manipulating humans to do its will; it will also have the capacity to act in the virtual world through its electronic connections, and to act in the physical world through robot bodies.

This is known as the “control problem” or the “alignment problem” (see philosopher Nick Bostrom’s book Superintelligence for a good overview) and has been studied and argued about by philosophers and scientists, such as Bostrom, Seth Baum and Eliezer Yudkowsky, for decades now.

I think of it this way: Why would we expect a newborn baby to beat a grandmaster in chess? We wouldn’t. Similarly, why would we expect to be able to control superintelligent AI systems? (No, we won’t be able to simply hit the off switch, because superintelligent AI will have thought of every possible way that we might do that and taken actions to prevent being shut off.)

Here’s another way of looking at it: a superintelligent AI will be able to do in about one second what it would take a team of 100 human software engineers a year or more to complete. Or pick any task, like designing a new advanced airplane or weapon system, and superintelligent AI could do this in about a second.

Once AI systems are built into robots, they will be able to act in the real world, rather than only the virtual (electronic) world, with the same degree of superintelligence, and will of course be able to replicate and improve themselves at a superhuman pace.

Any defenses or protections we attempt to build into these AI “gods,” on their way toward godhood, will be anticipated and neutralized with ease by the AI once it reaches superintelligence status. This is what it means to be superintelligent.

We won’t be able to control them because anything we think of, they will have already thought of, a million times faster than us. Any defenses we’ve built in will be undone, like Gulliver throwing off the tiny strands the Lilliputians used to try and restrain him.

Some argue that these LLMs are just automation machines with zero consciousness, the implication being that if they’re not conscious they have less chance of breaking free from their programming. Even if these language models, now or in the future, aren’t at all conscious, this doesn’t matter. For the record, I agree that it’s unlikely that they have any actual consciousness at this juncture—though I remain open to new facts as they come in.

Regardless, a nuclear bomb can kill millions without any consciousness whatsoever. In the same way, AI could kill millions with zero consciousness, in a myriad ways, including potentially use of nuclear bombs either directly (much less likely) or through manipulated human intermediaries (more likely).

So, the debates about consciousness and AI really don’t figure very much into the debates about AI safety.

Yes, language models based on GPT-4 and many other models are already circulating widely. But the moratorium being called for is to stop development of any new models more powerful than 4.0—and this can be enforced, with force if required. Training these more powerful models requires massive server farms and energy. They can be shut down.

My ethical compass tells me that it is very unwise to create these systems when we know already we won’t be able to control them, even in the relatively near future. Discernment is knowing when to pull back from the edge. Now is that time.

We should not open Pandora’s box any more than it already has been opened.

This is an opinion and analysis article, and the views expressed by the author or authors are not necessarily those of Scientific American.

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Article written by Tamlyn Hunt and posted on the ScientificAmerican.com website.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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Tim Moseley

It’s too early to call a bullish rally in gold the Fed is still the biggest unknown

It's too early to call a bullish rally in gold, the Fed is still the biggest unknown

The gold market will remain very sensitive to the Federal Reserve's rate outlook, so it is too premature to call a bullish rally in gold after prices gained more than $30 on the week, according to analysts.

Gold got a boost after June's U.S. inflation report showed price pressures rising at the slowest pace in two years. The U.S. CPI was up 3% last month from a year ago, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was at 4.8%, both below estimates.

The August Comex gold futures last traded at $1,961.70, up just over $30 on the week, after firmly holding the $1,900 an ounce level.

"The fact that gold held above $1,900 despite everyone expecting the Fed to hike interest rates in July is a vote of confidence," Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News. "The Fed will drive the gold market for the next few months. And higher for longer rates would be negative for the price. Gold's current reaction means that either all rate hikes are not priced in yet or maybe markets' expectations do not match reality."

The Fed is still planning on hiking rates at least twice this year, with market expectations for the July meeting pricing in a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. The second rate hike is yet to be priced in, which is why analysts remain cautious about gold in the short term.

"If anything, people want to go bullish on gold on any feeble pretext, including the hope that the Fed will go accommodative quickly and end the tightening program," TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "At this point, it is too early to get overly bullish."

Even though the inflation narrative is starting to look better, it is not a done deal, especially considering the spike in energy prices. "We have recently seen a significant rise in oil prices as OPEC continues to reduce supply. The big benefit we received from cheaper energy may reverse to some extent in the months to come," Melek warned.

Plus, it is not likely that the Fed will be quick to change its hawkish rhetoric as it impacts its credibility going forward. "I doubt that the Fed starts easing us as quickly as the market thinks. Data could surprise to the upside, and the Fed sticks to its guns. And that could be a problem for gold," Melek noted.

What the Fed does next is still a big mystery, Millman said, noting that it is difficult to predict how some of the lagging effects of such aggressive monetary policy tightening will affect broader markets.

The key question for markets is not by how much the Fed is yet to hike, but for how long will the rates remain elevated before the Fed starts to cut, Millman added.

"If they turn around and cut rates at the end of this year or beginning of next year, markets will have a strong reaction," he said. "It is important to know what the next step is — how long rates will stay high and when is the rate cut coming. That's what's keeping gold in place."

Based on previous statements, the Fed is likely to err on the side of tightening, which would mean rates will remain higher for longer, Millman noted. With inflation being elevated for 18 months above 2%, Fed Chair Powell believes markets need time below 2% to balance that out.

Gold price levels to watch

Melek described the latest move in gold as likely short-lived, with short-covering driving prices higher. "That is going to reverse to a great extent. The rally is too premature, and there are significant risks of unwinding," he said.

The immediate resistance is at $1,966 and $1,970, and support is at $1,930, $1,900, and then $1,896 an ounce, Melek added.

Millman said he is also not ready to move into the bullish camp yet. He sees the next big resistance at $1,975-80 and support at $1,900.

Next week's data

Monday: NY Empire State Manufacturing index

Tuesday: U.S. retail sales, U.S. industrial production, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks

Wednesday: U.S. hosting starts and building permits

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing Index, U.S. existing home sales

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter