German Gov’t Accelerates Sell-Offs

German Gov’t Accelerates Sell-Offs With $900M BTC Unloaded In Just 8 Hours — Deeper Price Pullback Ahead?

By Brenda Ngari – July 8, 2024

The German government cannot stop selling Bitcoin (BTC).

Germany has made a series of transfers in recent hours since ZyCrypto reported that the government had sent $27 million in assets to Coinbase and Bitstamp, bringing the total BTC amount moved by the government over the last 24 hours to a five-figure amount.

The sell-offs come despite crypto-friendly German lawmaker Joana Cotar urging it to “refrain” from liquidating the remaining Bitcoin holdings. Cotar issued her statement to the German government on July 4, stating that the preeminent crypto could help the country diversify its treasury assets and promote innovation while also serving as a hedge against inflation.

Germany’s Biggest Bitcoin Sale

The German government has made waves in the crypto market today with massive transfers.

According to blockchain data platform Arkham Intelligence, the authorities have dramatically ramped up the amount of seized Bitcoin that it is sending to crypto exchanges and market makers, with at least 16,309 BTC (equivalent to over $900 million) transferred on July 8 in the space of just 8 hours.

The latest transfers include $200 million worth of Bitcoin sent to market makers Flow Traders and Cumberland DRW and additional deposits to Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Kraken. Germany has made multiple smaller transfers in recent weeks, but this is the largest single-day string of transfers witnessed thus far. With the deposit of funds to exchanges suggesting sell-offs, the actions of the German government have wreaked havoc on the crypto market.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin’s price fell 3% to as low as $54,320 shortly after the blockchain transactions. Later, the foremost cryptocurrency rebounded slightly, trading at $56,129 as of press time.

Dreaded BTC Sell-Off

The latest transfers leave the wallets of the Eurozone’s biggest economy with just 23,788 BTC (worth $1.33 billion), down from a peak of almost 50,000 BTC ($3.5 billion).

The German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) seized 49,857 BTC from the operators of the piracy website Movie2k.to. in January this year when Bitcoin was valued at around $46K.

The pending coin stockpile suggests further price turbulence if the sell-offs continue. Last week, Tron founder Justin Sun offered to purchase BTC from the German government off-market to minimize the adverse impact on the spot price. At the moment, it remains unclear just how serious the popular crypto founder really was.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on Zycrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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Tim Moseley

BlackRock Proposes Its New Retirement Plan Using Your Money: How Will This Impact Your Finances? Discover Your Options

BlackRock Proposes Its New Retirement Plan Using Your Money: How Will This Impact Your Finances? Discover Your Options.

In mid-2019, BlackRock demonstrated its prophetic capabilities by forecasting the financial and monetary implications of the pandemic before it had even occurred. Considering the company's stature as the world's largest asset manager, some may argue we should heed its insights. 

Recently, CEO Larry Fink released his yearly correspondence with investors, offering subtle hints about potential future developments and BlackRock's strategies. This article breaks down the key takeaways from the letter, providing insight into what it may imply for individual investors and the market at large. We also explore how you can alleviate concerns and secure your financial future. 

To begin with, Larry Fink's yearly correspondence with investors has a distinct tone from his annual address to corporate leaders. BlackRock holds significant stakes in many of the world's largest corporations. Fink's letter to CEOs served as a guide for corporations, outlining what actions they should take. However, this year's letter has yet to be released.

Similarly, BlackRock's CEO, Larry, writes an annual letter to its investors outlining its key objectives. The letter being discussed today is an overview of this annual communication. Notably, the initial section of Larry's letter is particularly striking, bearing the title “Time to rethink retirement.” It's worth noting that this topic is especially relevant, as numerous countries globally are increasing the retirement age due to fiscal constraints stemming from a shortage of taxpayers to fund pension systems.


Source: BlackRock

The Capital Markets

Inspired by his parents' financial struggles in retirement, Larry founded BlackRock to help others build a comfortable nest egg. In his letter, he highlights the importance of investing in capital markets to achieve this goal. Capital markets encompass a wide range of financial instruments, including stocks, bonds, and private investments, providing opportunities for individuals to grow their wealth over time.

Influential investment firms like BlackRock are expanding their reach into multiple areas, including purchasing single-family residences that are subsequently leased to individuals. This trend has sparked concerns about the escalating cost of housing.

In the second portion of his letter, Larry provides a concise overview of the evolution of capital markets in the United States, highlighting two primary methods of wealth accumulation: saving funds in a bank or investing. He attributes the country's impressive performance since the 2008 economic downturn to the size and complexity of its capital markets. Notably, Larry takes pride in his role as one of the creators of mortgage-backed securities, which were instrumental in causing the 2008 financial crisis.

In hindsight, it's not entirely unexpected given Larry's academic background in political science and business administration, which didn't exactly prepare him to be a market expert. Nevertheless, Larry emphasizes that a crucial lesson learned is that a robust banking system alone is not enough to drive economic growth; a country also needs thriving capital markets. He observes that this realization is gaining traction globally, and Larry shares that he has been engaged in discussions with governments worldwide on this topic.

He details his extensive travels last year, visiting 17 countries where he engaged in discussions with top government officials, including presidents and prime ministers. According to him, these leaders are eager to expand their financial markets, and conveniently, BlackRock is poised to assist without any underlying motives, of course. What's alarming, however, is that Larry discloses that Indian authorities are discontent with the widespread practice of Indians using gold to save and store personal wealth. Instead, they want to see this wealth funneled into the banking system, and Larry is likely keen to see it flow into BlackRock's coffers.

In any case, it implies that governments view gold as a threat. Larry appears to share this viewpoint, pointing out that gold has not performed as well as the Indian market and that investing in gold does not contribute to the Indian economy. So, will we see restrictions on gold in the countries Larry advises, citing economic vulnerability as the reason?

Larry proceeds to uncover BlackRock's ultimate objective. He asserts that investing in capital markets is not just desirable but essential for two key reasons. Firstly, it is the sole means of financing retirement plans, and secondly, it is the only way to develop infrastructure that aligns with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles. In essence, this constitutes the endgame.

For those who may not be aware, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) is a concept promoted by influential financial institutions such as BlackRock and major banks like Bank of America. ESG's ultimate goal is to support the United Nations' ambitious sustainable development goals (SDGs), which envision global adoption of dystopian technologies like CBDCs, digital IDs, and smart cities by 2030. 

Retirement And Demographics

In the third section of his letter, Larry raises concerns about how individuals can financially support their retirement, given the increasing life expectancy. By now, you'll know the answer is to give all your money to BlackRock. Case in point, Larry notes a joint venture BlackRock has with an Indian retirement firm that invests in digital infrastructure. In other words, you will own nothing and be happy, and BlackRock will use your retirement savings and investments to make it happen. It appears BlackRock is making big bets on India, presumably because its workforce population will be one of the last to peak sometime around 2050. 


Source: BlackRock

In a surprising turn, Larry shifts the conversation to the United States, likely to address potential concerns about BlackRock's increasing involvement in India. With a hint of irony, Larry acknowledges that the financial difficulties younger generations face directly result from policies implemented by his generation, the Baby Boomers.

As you may have anticipated, BlackRock has devised a solution to rescue the next generation. Following a stark warning that the US Social Security fund will be depleted by 2034 and recommending a delayed retirement age, Larry proposes three methods to address our financial future.

The first approach is to compel employees to allocate a segment of their salaries towards investments in the capital markets, which would be managed by firms such as BlackRock. According to Larry, the U.S. will implement similar legislation next year, mandating companies with 401K plans to automatically register new employees into the program.

This ties into BlackRock's second strategy for securing our financial futures: exerting influence over how we utilize our retirement funds. In essence, BlackRock aims to manage the savings you've set aside for your golden years, effectively gaining control over how you spend them during retirement. 

The silver lining is that BlackRock's proposal is a product with no legislative backing or hints of a looming obligation. However, the concern is that a similar law could be proposed in the future. If baby boomers were to withdraw too much of their retirement funds, the entire capital markets system could collapse, a risk highlighted by prominent macroeconomic experts like Mike Green.

Larry refers to BlackRock's plan as a “revolution in retirement” and believes it will dispel fear and instill hope. Earlier in his letter, Larry implied that the third way to fix our financial future is to fix the demographic problem, meaning having more kids or at least increasing immigration. But no, all Larry said was what was mentioned a few moments ago: raise the retirement age. 

Larry’s stance might be related to his belief that machines can replace humans. During a recent World Economic Forum discussion panel, he explicitly stated, “Countries will rapidly develop robotics and AI and technology, and the social problems that one will have in substituting humans for machines are going to be far easier in those countries that have declining populations.” 

It would seem that BlackRock's interests align with declining populations. This is unsurprising, given that a shrinking population is ESG-friendly: fewer people mean fewer emissions. If this notion disturbs you, Larry doesn't seem to understand why. Per his letter, “There's so much anger and division, and I often struggle to wrap my head around it.” Perhaps he needs to reflect on his role in the matter. 


Source: SigmaEarth

Infrastructure And ESG

In the fourth part of his letter, Larry discusses the ESG-aligned infrastructure that BlackRock aims to develop using your retirement funds. He states, "The future of infrastructure is a public-private partnership,” meaning BlackRock is partnering with your government. Larry asserts that this partnership is crucial for financing infrastructure projects as governments are burdened with significant debt and cannot undertake it independently.

He points out that the US government's debt is increasing rapidly and that fewer and fewer governments are buying US Government debt. Interestingly, a lack of financial support was the main reason why the precursors to the SDGs, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), ultimately failed.

Larry then goes one step further, saying, “More leaders should pay attention to America's snowballing debt. There's a bad scenario where the American economy starts to look like Japan's in the late 1990s and early 2000s when debt exceeded GDP and led to periods of austerity and stagnation.” 

Larry argues that there is an alternative solution to addressing the national debt beyond cutting taxes and spending. He suggests that if the US economy grows significantly, it could enable the US to repay its debt. However, he fails to note that this growth will simultaneously cause inflation

To drive growth in the U.S., Larry suggests focusing on energy investments, particularly in unreliable forms of electricity. Ironically, the current high costs directly result from inadequate investment in dependable energy sources, which can be attributed to the emphasis on ESG considerations. Asset managers like BlackRock have played a significant role in this underinvestment, exacerbating the issue.

Larry's admission that oil and gas will remain essential for “a number of years” is a gross understatement, considering they supply half of the world's energy needs. Surprisingly, Larry praises Germany as a model for effective energy policy despite the country shutting down its final nuclear power plant last year. This decision coincided with Germany's struggling economy, which faced challenges from high energy expenses due to sanctions and renewable energy sources.

Larry highlights Texas as an example of a state struggling with energy issues, attributing the problem to growing demand rather than its shift towards unpredictable renewable energy sources. Ironically, he discloses that BlackRock is investing in initiatives that further increase dependence on these intermittent sources. Moreover, Larry outlines a series of investments BlackRock is making to facilitate a “fair energy transition,” which is primarily focused on maintaining warm homes during winter while seemingly downplaying the importance of other energy-related concerns.

Luckily, Larry discloses that BlackRock is allocating more resources to dependable energy sources than to less dependable ones. This is because the company's clients are driving this demand. It's worth noting that several individuals and institutions had previously threatened to withdraw their investments due to BlackRock's ESG policies, and some actually followed through on those threats.

However, this is just the tip of the iceberg regarding BlackRock's double standards. Larry asserts that renewable energy sources reduce a nation's reliance on foreign powers, but this claim is misleading. The reality is quite the opposite. China supplies 90% of the necessary materials for these renewable energy sources, so every green energy infrastructure depends on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This raises questions about who truly holds influence within BlackRock.

BlackRock’s Plans

Larry outlines BlackRock's strategic trajectory in his letter, detailing the company's partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), a leading international infrastructure investment firm with which he appears to have personal connections. Additionally, Larry intends to expand his travels and engage with more leaders globally, promoting BlackRock's strategy as the optimal choice. While he doesn't explicitly state it, his comments imply that BlackRock's growth in assets under management is attributed to foreign sources, thanks to his lobbying efforts.

If you weren't aware, BlackRock's portfolio has surpassed a staggering $10 trillion in value and is still growing. To offer a sense of scale, this would make BlackRock the third-largest country by GDP. Furthermore, this immense wealth would be sufficient to acquire nearly half of the US equity market, although BlackRock already wields significant control through its substantial voting shares. According to Larry, the company plans to maintain its investment strategy, which includes early-stage ventures.

Looking ahead, Larry emphasizes that “Our strategy remains centered on growing Aladdin, ETFs, and private markets, keeping alpha at the heart of BlackRock, leading in sustainable investing, and advising clients on their whole portfolio.” For those who may not know, Aladdin is BlackRock's proprietary trading platform.

Larry mentioned that moving forward, BlackRock's primary focus on the private market will be ESG infrastructure. In terms of ETFs, they plan to increase ETF adoption further and launch new ones, particularly highlighting Bitcoin ETFs. This shift hints at the possibility of more crypto ETFs in the pipeline, including those for Ethereum. Additionally, Larry highlighted that BlackRock will increasingly prioritize fixed income, specifically government bonds, now that interest rates are “near long-term averages.”


Source: BlackRock

BlackRock's move is noteworthy as it indicates that the company anticipates that interest rates will remain stable, which goes against the views of those who predict rate decreases. Following a boastful mention of BlackRock's impressive 90-fold increase in stock value over the past 25 years, Larry highlights the company's acquisition of GIP, an ESG infrastructure firm, and the subsequent appointment of its CEO, who happens to be a friend of Larry's, to BlackRock's board. Who needs crony capitalism when you've got nepotism disguised as ESG?

In all seriousness, Larry concludes by asserting that BlackRock is merely a tiny component of a broader, global phenomenon that he believes is improving the lives of ordinary individuals. However, in reality, this phenomenon primarily enriches the wealthy elite. Larry credits the capital markets and their investors for making this possible, but he fails to mention that a staggering 93% of all stocks are concentrated in the hands of the top 10% of the population.

What Does All This Mean for The Markets And You?

What implications does this have for you and the financial markets? It is crucial to understand that these are distinct entities. One viewpoint is that BlackRock's decision-makers seem alarmingly out of touch with the real world, which is a daunting prospect considering the vast amount of assets they control. The fact that they're holding up Germany as a model for other countries to emulate in terms of energy policy is either a staggering display of ignorance or a cynical ploy, with most people leaning towards the latter interpretation.

Regardless of the circumstances, the outcome remains consistent: wealth becomes increasingly concentrated among the affluent, while the disadvantaged fall further behind. This phenomenon frequently occurs in economies with centralized planning, and BlackRock's most significant mistake stems from this approach. The asset manager assumes that centralized control is the sole means of addressing issues and fostering prosperity to the extent that it collaborates with governments, introduces initiatives such as CBDCs, and limits access to gold, all in the name of economic growth.

This action is not a method for addressing issues and fostering economic growth. Instead, it seems more like a strategy to avoid the collapse of a financial Ponzi scheme. Despite their shortcomings, governments have significantly less debt than banks and asset managers.

Globally, there is a staggering $315 trillion of outstanding debt. Still, the liabilities stemming from complex financial instruments held by banks and asset managers are projected to be exponentially higher, reaching the quadrillions. These instruments are contingent upon the appreciation of underlying assets; if these assets fail to increase in value, the entire derivatives debt structure will collapse, triggering a catastrophic financial meltdown.

Upon closer examination, BlackRock's proposals all boil down to a single premise: entrusting them with your money and allowing them complete discretion over managing it, including determining when it will be returned to you.  The ESG narrative may merely be a ruse to convince people that by handing over their money to BlackRock, they'll be contributing to the greater good. What's particularly unsettling is that Larry appears to have successfully duped many in the US and is now shifting his focus to international markets, where numerous countries eagerly seek investment opportunities, making them vulnerable to his influence.

It's clear that BlackRock's assets under management (AUM) increase whenever Larry travels, and it’s not an exaggeration to label it as deceitful when it leads to insufficient energy infrastructure that financially benefits BlackRock and other venture capitalists. The collapse of Sri Lanka, which previously held the highest ESG score, serves as a cautionary tale. Despite this, BlackRock continues pushing forward with its investments, making the average person worse off. 

This has significant implications for the market landscape. Essentially, poorly conceived ventures will continue to attract excessive investment if they align with ESG criteria. What's particularly irritating is that BlackRock is channeling its ESG investments into startup ventures and private companies, making it challenging for us regular folk as investors to tap into these lucrative opportunities, likely by intentional design.

One approach to capitalizing on BlackRock's ESG fixation may lie in cryptocurrency. A similar trend has emerged in the AI sector, where many companies remain privately held, limiting investment opportunities for the general public. As a result, AI-related cryptocurrencies have become a viable alternative, serving as indirect investment vehicles for those seeking to benefit from AI's growth and development.

It's worth noting that a specific area of crypto, known as ReFi or Regenerative Finance, has garnered attention. While some crypto experts have raised doubts about the legitimacy of certain projects within this niche, they align with ESG criteria. If BlackRock's ESG trend experiences a resurgence, many of these projects could rapidly gain traction. 

Final Thoughts

The reality is that primary energy is scarce due to inadequate investment from BlackRock and similar entities, and the emerging alternatives, except nuclear power, are insufficient to bridge the gap. As this reality becomes apparent, BlackRock will likely face significant investment withdrawals unless its strategy is altered. However, with Larry at the helm, a change in direction appears unlikely, making divestment a probable outcome.

Hopefully, we won't witness another asset manager arising, proclaiming to be the solution to all of humanity's problems. The truth is that most people simply want to be left alone to live their lives without interference. The idea of being "saved” by a grandiose plan or product is unrealistic and ignores the diversity of individual preferences and values. Instead of imposing a one-size-fits-all solution, providing people with the tools and resources they need to live well and make their own choices is more productive.

A Perfect Opportunity For Individual Investors Is Here

Standing out as a beacon of hope against the forces of globalization and corruption is Markethive, a pioneering platform that has been empowering entrepreneurs for years. As a trailblazer in the marketing sphere, it has conceptualized and executed innovative, high-impact strategies tailored to its users. With its sights set on the future, Markethive has transformed into a groundbreaking decentralized ecosystem rooted in blockchain technology and fueled by its cryptocurrency, Hivecoin. Additionally, it aims to expand its offerings by establishing a decentralized crypto exchange. (DEX)

Markethive is actively seeking individual investors to support its mission and vision of becoming a prominent decentralized social media, marketing, and broadcasting ecosystem. According to crypto experts, this is an upcoming crypto narrative in the next bull market. This is significant as it will pay huge dividends in the mid-to-long term for everyone, particularly those participating in the Entrepreneur One Upgrade, which includes the Incentized Loan program. By focusing on its path and purpose, Markethive remains dedicated to providing economic empowerment and identity to all, especially those lacking it.

Markethive is a grassroots project built for the people, by the people, and is of the people that empowers individuals by allowing them to become stakeholders. Markethive is revolutionizing how we approach social media, broadcasting, inbound marketing, and eCommerce, providing a comprehensive system for long-term success, financial autonomy, and a strong community bond. So take advantage of this chance to claim your spot in this pioneering network, where you can positively impact the world and build a lasting legacy of wealth.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold Prices Decline Amid Signs of Easing Inflation

Gold Prices Decline Amid Signs of Easing Inflation

Gold futures experienced a sharp decline on Monday, shedding $34 to settle at $2,363.50 for the most active August contract. This drop came despite recent economic indicators suggesting a cooling inflation rate and a contracting U.S. economy—factors that typically support gold prices.

The week ahead promises to be eventful for financial markets, with several key events on the horizon. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify before the House and Senate, beginning Tuesday and concluding Wednesday. His testimony is expected to echo his recent assessment of the U.S. economy and inflation, presented last week at the European Central Bank forum in Portugal.

Powell's recent comments have been interpreted as having a dovish bias. He acknowledged significant progress in combating inflation, noting that the Fed's preferred measure, Core PCE, has "tumbled to 2.6% from 5.6% in mid-2022," which he called "really significant progress."

The Chairman will likely incorporate last week's jobs report in his testimony, which showed a substantial contraction in job growth from 272,000 in May to 206,000 in June. This slowdown in job creation aligns with the Fed's efforts to cool the economy and curb inflation.

Looking ahead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Thursday, followed by the Producer Price Index on Friday. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's estimates for the CPI report suggest a continued weakening of consumer prices, with consensus predictions indicating inflation declined to 3.1% year-over-year in June, down from 3.3% in May.

Despite these positive signs for inflation control, gold prices fell sharply on Monday. The dollar's strength played only a minor role in this decline, with the dollar index gaining a modest 0.11% to reach 104.987.

The disconnect between gold's price movement and the current economic backdrop is puzzling. Typically, signs of economic contraction and cooling inflation would support gold prices. One possible explanation for the sell-off is profit-taking by traders capitalizing on recent gains.

As market participants await Chairman Powell's testimony and the upcoming inflation reports, the gold market's reaction to these events will be closely watched. The interplay between economic data, Federal Reserve policy, and precious metal prices continues to evolve, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors navigating these complex market dynamics.

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold investors eye 2400 as market sees fewer barriers to the Fed’s easing cycle

Gold investors eye $2,400 as market sees fewer barriers to the Fed’s easing cycle

Gold investors eye $2,400 as market sees fewer barriers to the Fed’s easing cycle teaser image

The gold market is ending the shortened holiday trading week with some fireworks as prices test resistance around $2,400 an ounce.

Disappointing economic data, including slowing momentum in the U.S. labor market, is raising market expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a nearly 80% chance of a rate cut after the summer break.

Rising expectations for the start of a new easing cycle have pushed the U.S. dollar index to a three-week low and bond yields to a four-week high, which is providing a tailwind for gold as prices trade at a four-week high.

At the same time, silver prices have catapulted above $31 an ounce and are also trading at a four-week high.

August gold futures last traded at $2,399.60 an ounce, up more than 1% on the day, and up more than 2.5% since last Friday. September silver futures last traded at $31.685 an ounce, up 2.7% on the day and up more than 7% for the week.

The precious metals' latest momentum drive came after disappointing June employment data. Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the U.S. economy created 206,000 jobs last month, beating expectations.

However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, from May’s reading of 4.0%; economists were expecting to see an unchanged reading.

The report also revised April and May employment numbers lower by more than 100,000 jobs.

Ricardo Evangelista, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades, said that he would not be surprised if gold pushed to $2,400 an ounce next week.

“As predicted, today’s release of US employment data confirmed that the American labor market continues to cool down, albeit not in a pronounced way, but still enough to favor the case of Fed doves,” he said in a comment to Kitco News. “In the first half of the year the resilience of the US economy created headroom for the Federal Reserve to keep rates high for longer, so signs of a cool-down are likely to drive a softer US dollar, as well as lower treasury yields, in a dynamic that supports the price of bullion.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said it might be a little premature to call gold’s consolidation period over, but he remains optimistic that prices will eventually move higher.

“I would be a bit surprised to see the market go higher already, but then again, the recent correction was very shallow, indicating either strong underlying demand at lower prices or simply that already established longs saw no reason to reduce their exposure,” he said.

With the U.S. economy slowing down, the biggest risk for the gold market remains inflation, which will be critical data on next week’s calendar. However, many analysts note that even this risk is limited as slower growth will lead to easing price pressures.

Jonathan Petersen, Senior Markets Economist at Capital Economics, said in a note on Friday that he expects to see further weakness in the U.S. dollar as inflation pressures start to ease. This environment could continue to support gold prices.

“Next week’s inflation data out of the US is likely to reinforce that rate hikes from the Fed are off the table and no longer an upside risk for the dollar. Instead, the key emerging risk for the dollar now seems to be a weakening economy pushing Treasury yields even lower than we expect, even if it might benefit from a short-lived “safe-haven” bid if “risky” assets falter,” Peterson wrote.

Economists at TD Securities also do not see inflation stopping the Federal Reserve from cutting rates in September.

“While we still think that the Fed's decision to first ease mostly hinges on inflation outcomes, the ongoing softish signals stemming from labor market conditions and consumer spending suggest the Fed is likely to start considering its employment mandate more seriously in coming months,” the analysts said in a note Friday. “We remain optimistic that the Fed will first ease rates at its September FOMC meeting as we look for core PCE inflation to gradually moderate by then to a monthly pace that is consistent with a return to the inflation target.”

Along with Thursday’s Consumer Price Index, markets will be interested to hear what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will say during his two days of testimony before Congress next week.

 

Economic data to watch next week:

Tuesday: Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee

Wednesday: Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee

Thursday: US CPI, weekly jobless claims

Friday: US PPI, Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Wall Street sees green lights for gold next week Main Street jumps back on the bullish bandwagon

Wall Street sees green lights for gold next week; Main Street jumps back on the bullish bandwagon

Gold finally shook itself out of its summer doldrums this week, as weak employment data helped the yellow metal rocket out of its recent holding pattern as it once again approached the $2400 price level.

Spot gold opened the week trading at $2,326.72 per ounce, remaining within a $15 range of that level on Monday and Tuesday. Then, Wednesday brought a raft of economic data and news events, with ADP employment, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM services PMI all released in the morning ahead of the July 4th Independence Day holiday in the United States, along with the minutes from the June FOMC meeting in the afternoon.

The data suggested a weakening jobs market in the United States, and the Fed’s minutes showed little inclination to raise rates. This combination helped to propel gold from flat on the week to its then-high of $2,363.77 shortly after 10:30 am EDT.

The yellow metal trended within a few dollars of its new high through the Independence Day holiday. Then, traders returned on Friday morning to receive definitive confirmation of what the week's earlier data had told them: employment, as per the non-farm payrolls report for June, was indeed faltering, with revisions subtracting over 100,000 jobs from the prior two months, while the unemployment rate ticked up unexpectedly to 4.1%.

This was all precious metals traders needed to see, and they proceeded to propel gold from $2,367 per ounce in the minutes before the release to fresh weekly highs above $2,390 by early afternoon.

At the time of writing, spot gold continues to trade at its highest levels in over a month, and within a few dollars of $2,400 per ounce.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows virtually all industry experts seeing green for gold prices next week, while retail sentiment has also turned solidly positive once again.

“I like gold higher next week on lower interest rates and anticipation of a weaker US dollar,” said Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “A small shelf is near $2350. The early June high was near $2388, and that may be the initial target on the way to test the air above $2400.”

“Momentum indicators are favorable, and the five-day moving average crossed back above the 20-day average,” Chandler added.

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, also sees further gains in gold’s near-term future. “August gold is nearing a possible end to its short-term uptrend, though early Friday morning finds it still has time and space up to the next target of $2,390.80,” he said. “While the intermediate-term trend remains down on the contract’s weekly chart, a higher close this week would be the second consecutive, setting the stage for a higher weekly close next week before resuming the downtrend.”

Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, was the lone voice of dissent this week. “Keeping my inverse index hedges on,” he warned. “Risk in gold in the weeks (possibly months) back to 2000 area.”

Analysts at CPM Group said in a note on Friday that their recommendation is to buy, with an initial target of $2,410.

“Gold prices could move higher in the next couple of weeks before potentially retreating,” they wrote. “There is building support for prices from the political environment in the U.S., Europe, the Middle East, and from many other parts of the world. There appears to be rising concern about President Biden’s ability to be reelected and, if reelected, manage the duties of the President. This rising uncertainty is supportive of gold prices. As the Democratic Party moves to find a replacement candidate would elevate uncertainties and concerns among investors, likely to be reflected in gold purchases.”

“Economically, the world continues to fare well, but the slowing down in economic output in many countries and regions is creating an underpinning of concern about economic trends in the near future,” they added. “Additionally, there are some rising expectations in financial markets that interest rates could move lower in the months ahead. Inflation has cooled and unemployment has risen only slightly.”

The analysts noted that gold prices have traded between $2,285.20 and $2,448.80 since early April, which has created firmer support and resistance levels. “The length of time that gold has traded within this range perhaps makes it more difficult for prices to break out,” they said. “Technical trading suggests a continuation of trading in this range until there is a catalyst to move prices outside of this range.”

“Prices are in an uptrend now, likely to test resistance levels before easing thereafter,” they concluded. “The seasonal weakness that typically takes hold of markets around this time of year appears to be on hold for the moment.”

This week, 12 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and the overwhelming majority see green lights for the yellow metal. Ten experts, representing 83, expect to see gold prices climb higher next week, while one analyst, or 8%, predicts a price decline, and one other saw gold trending sideways in the week ahead.

Meanwhile, 164 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, showing Main Street investors walking on the sunny side of the street again. 108 retail traders, or 66%, look for gold prices to rise next week. Another 26, or 16%, expected the yellow metal to trade lower, while 30 respondents, representing the remaining 18%, saw prices trading sideways during the week ahead.

The Federal Reserve remains in the spotlight next week, with Fed chair Jerome Powell testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, and then the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

Markets will also be paying close attention to U.S. CPI for June along with weekly jobless claims on Thursday, followed by the Friday release of U.S. PPI for June, followed by the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, said the political environment is providing a unique bid for gold prices. “We are likely living through one of the all-time great moments in U.S. politics,” Button said. “It takes a great deal to move gold on U.S. politics, but Biden dropping out would do it.”

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he wasn’t so sure that the weak jobs data had increased the likelihood of a Fed cut, but weakness among other asset classes was providing renewed bullish momentum for gold prices.

Cieszynski agreed that there were no surprises for markets in the June minutes. “The Fed was pretty clear when it came out with its forecasts that they're only cutting rates once this year, maybe before the election, maybe after, and that there's a lot of inflation still kicking around out there,” he said. “That hasn't gone away. Today's employment numbers were very stagflationary because the second you looked under the hood of the jobs data, it wasn't very good. The last month was revised down more than this month beat by, and wages and hourly earnings didn't go down, so there's really no reason to think that there's any change here.”

“The Fed is still on hold,” he added. “They only seem to talk dovish at all just to prop up the market, and otherwise, they're stuck.”

Cieszynski said that based on gold’s reaction on Friday, he thinks markets are dialing down the chances of further rate hikes, but they may be premature. “I think at this point it's just working down the odds of a rate hike,” he said. “I think there's just more conviction that even though the Fed wants to leave the door open to a rate hike to scare people, realistically they're probably not going to raise rates. They may not cut anymore. But it depends, right? If inflation starts to take off, then they may have to raise rates. It's very mixed here.

Cieszynski believes the biggest booster of gold this week was Bitcoin’s decline. “Bitcoin is just getting absolutely smoked again today, and I think we're starting to see some of that money coming back into gold and silver,” he said. “I consider them [both] alternative currencies, and when people are feeling aggressive and want to take on risk, they go charging off and buy Bitcoin. Now, I know there's also an event around this, why Bitcoin's getting depressed, but it was rolling over anyways, and when people are starting to feel more concerned, they go back into gold. I think that's what we're starting to see a little bit of here.”

Cieszynski also said he’s seeing broad-based weakness in equities, even if the strength of a handful of tech stocks continues to mask it. “The market seems to be crumbling underneath the top, and that's more favorable for gold,” he said.

He also agreed with the prevailing view that markets are growing more confident about a September rate cut but cautioned that this week’s moves could be misleading due to the holiday.

“I don't think much has really changed this week,” he said. “A lot of the trading has been distorted with all the holidays, and it's just generally a week that people go away on vacation. We can't really glean much out of this week given all the distortions.”

Cieszynski said that, on balance, he still sees gold in a strong position to make further gains.

“I'm bullish on gold for next week,” he said. “It looks like money's coming back in, and there's places for it to come from, because money's moving out of cryptos and money's moving out of equities, so it's clearly looking to go somewhere else.”

Michael Moor, Founder of Moor Analytics, was looking at the upside and downside potential for the yellow metal. “The trade above 23276 (-2 tics per/hour) warns of decent strength—we have attained $30.3,” Moor wrote. “The trade above 23437 (-1 tic per/hour) projects this upward $15 minimum, $45 (+) maximum—we have attained $14.2; but if we fail back below decently, look for decent pressure.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff said improving odds of a Fed cut have boosted the technical picture for gold prices. “Steady-higher as the near-term chart posture for gold has improved, and the Federal Reserve is leaning a bit easier on its monetary policy,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2,388.51 per ounce at the time of writing for a gain of 1.33% on the day and 2.81% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Precious metals should shine in H2 2024 based on seasonal trends summer price gains should be strong MKS PAMP

Precious metals should shine in H2 2024 based on seasonal trends, summer price gains should be strong – MKS PAMP

Based on historical trends and regular seasonal performance, precious metals may be significantly underpriced going into the second half of the year, according to precious metals strategists at MKS PAMP.

In the company’s Precious Metals Seasonal Report released on July 3, the strategists wrote that a nuanced understanding of seasonal trends is important for metals investors.

“Seasonal trends alone don’t form the foundation of any trade or view, but it’s usually a useful supplement to existing ideas and helps explain away price out/underperformances,” they wrote. “Given we’re entering 2H, and after the recent strong price performance across most metals in 1H’24, it's worthwhile to provide a review of 1) how 1H 2024 performances stacked up against historical seasonal trends, and 2) provide a quick overview of the outlook for metals performances and how they ‘should perform’ into 2H and in this late summer (July 4th-Labor Day) period.”

They said that on average, second-half performances are more bullish than first-half performances historically for Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and Copper. “[A]verage 2H metals performances are 6x larger than average 1H metals performances (data was largely boosted by historical Palladium outperformance in 2H since 2010).

“Gold & Silver performances in 1H’24 directionally adhered to historical seasonal price performance norms; they rallied when they were meant to rally with Gold putting in average monthly gains 1H’24 of +2% and Silver of +3.6%/month,” they pointed out. “The notable seasonal out-performance was due to 1) Central Banks and Asia base building (Gold) and 2) fears of inflation/war/geopolitical/dedollarization risks trumping a HFL Fed hikes & a stronger US$ (Gold, Silver).”

teaser image

The platinum group metals (PGM) and copper, for their part, defied seasonal trends in the first half, with platinum and copper rallying when they would be expected to fall, while palladium posted large monthly losses when it should have seen mild gains. “The seasonal dislocation was due to 1) Platinum piggybacking Golds gains, 2) Copper capitalizing on strong fundamentals and macro participation, 3) Palladium losing out to paper shorts/positioning,” they wrote.

Statistically, gold prices posted average monthly gains of 2% in the first half of 2024 against a historical expectation of a 0.5% gain per month. “Silver rallied ~3.6% on ave per month in 1H (vs historical past ave gains of +0.2%); Platinum rallied +0.3%/month in 1H’24 (vs -0.1% losses),” they noted. “Palladium fell a chunky 2.4% / month in 1H’24 where it should put in 0.3% gains.”

Based on historical seasonal trends, MKS PAMP sees gold and silver prices posting decent gains. “[S]ince 2010, their past cumulative 2H gains are +1.4% and +2.2% respectively,” they wrote, “and Palladium should fly (cumulative gains of +10.4% in 2014). Platinum is meant to post minor losses (cumulative monthly losses of -0.7% in 2H).”

As for the short-term summer outlook, the strategists expect all the metals covered in the report to see strong performances.

“Precious metals are typically solid outperformers in late summer from July 4th into Labor Day, with Silver (+7.7%) & Gold (+4.4%) as macro investors take a step back from mainstay assets (DM equities are up marginally while US bonds typically fall and the USD$ traditionally falls -0.8%),” they said. “Some of this seasonal strength in Gold/Silver can be explained away by past dovish expectations around Jackson Hole, the 2011 European crisis & COVID monetary response (which skewed data around July/August), and preemptive buying ahead of the seasonal physical demand pickup in September. EM assets (from EMFX to equities) traditionally face headwinds over this peak summer lull.”

MKS PAMP summarized their position as follows: “if 1) markets start pricing in a Fed rate cutting cycle (HFL gives way), 2) macroeconomic data risk falls to US political risk in 2H’24, 3) broader acceptance of low likelihood of a large Global recession and/or large credit event, 4) paper positioning in Precious is lower than seasonal averages/trends —> then precious metals (especially Palladium) are rather underpriced heading into 2H.”

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold prices test fresh session highs as ISM Services PMI drops to 488

Gold prices test fresh session highs as ISM Services PMI drops to 48.8

The gold market has pushed to a fresh session high as activity in the U.S. service sector contracted sharply.

On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its Services Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 48.8% in June, compared to May’s reading of 53.8%. The data was significantly weaker than expected, as consensus forecasts looked for a much smaller drop to 52.6.

The gold market has seen a solid bid through the early start of the North American session and the disappointing economic data is adding to the bullish momentum. August gold futures last traded at $2.372.80 an ounce, up 1.68% on the day.

The U.S. service sector is seeing its weakest activity since the economy was shuttered during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“In June, the Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, 5 percentage points lower than May’s figure of 53.8 percent. The reading in June was a reversal compared to May and the second in contraction territory in the last three months,” said Steve Miller,Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.

Readings above 50% in such diffusion indexes signify economic growth and vice-versa. The farther an indicator is above or below 50%, the greater or smaller the rate of change.

The disappointing reading comes after the ISM said its Manufacturing PMI also fell deeper into contraction territory. Economists have said that the data raises the risks of an economic slowdown.

“Alongside a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, these surveys suggest that GDP growth will remain weak in the third quarter. They also add to evidence that labour demand is softening, and inflation will remain on a downward trend,” said Olivia Cross, North America Economist at Capital Economics.

Looking at the components of the report, the Business Activity Index dropped to 49.6%, down from May’s reading of 61.2. At the same time, the New Orders Index dropped to 47.3%, down from the previous reading of 54.1%.

Ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, the ISM report showed falling momentum in the labor market. The Employment Index dropped to 46.1%, down from May’s reading of 47.1%.

Adding to the positive environment for gold, the report noted easing price pressures. The Prices Index dropped to 56.3%, down from May’s reading of 58.1%.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Trump 20 could drive global investors to gold both silver and gold prices will benefit from trade wars Heraeus

Trump 2.0 could drive global investors to gold, both silver and gold prices will benefit from trade wars – Heraeus

Trump 2.0 could drive global investors to gold, both silver and gold prices will benefit from trade wars – Heraeus teaser image

The prospect of a Trump victory in November could push investors around the world into the yellow metal, while both gold and silver prices stand to benefit from tariffs and trade disputes, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus.

In their latest precious metals report, Heraeus suggested that the economic policies of a second Trump administration could drive global investors into gold. “The upcoming 5 November presidential election will set the United States on two fundamentally different paths, depending on the outcome,” the analysts wrote. “The more unpredictable former president and current Republican candidate, Donald Trump, may introduce several economic policies that could lead to significant market shocks, geopolitical risks and rising inflation. Trump currently maintains an edge over Biden in the polls – 46.9% vs. 45.0%.”

Heraeus pointed out that a renewed trade war could escalate tensions between the U.S. and China and could hurt both the U.S. and global economies.

“While the Biden administration preserved many of Trump’s China tariffs and raised tariffs on only a small basket of Chinese cleantech imports, a second Trump administration could escalate the trade war unprecedentedly,” they said. “Trump has proposed two significant trade policy agendas: imposing a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports from all countries and imposing tariffs of 60% or more on all Chinese imports. Although the legal feasibility of these measures is still in question, Trump’s first administration demonstrated the possibility of launching a trade war on China by invoking a loophole clause from an old statute – the 1974 Trade Act. A Peterson Institute paper found that these proposed tariffs could lead to an economic loss of 1.8% of US GDP, and significantly raise inflation. This assessment does not account for the almost guaranteed retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries.”

The analysts noted that the 2018-2020 U.S.-China trade war coincided with rising gold prices. “Gold surged during this period as the prolonged negotiations, coupled with tariff and geopolitical escalations, drove investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset despite a rate-hiking environment until mid-2019,” they said. “Gold’s appreciation closely correlated with the tariff increases which served as a meaningful indicator of US-China tensions (see the chart). Global ETF holdings increased from end-2017’s 71 moz to end-2019’s 86 moz, and US ETF holdings grew from 37 moz to 44 moz.

Heraeus worries that Trump could also undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, as his first presidency saw public attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s rate hikes.

“Unofficial proposals from the Trump campaign team include steps to undermine the Fed’s independence and potentially removing Powell prematurely,” they said. “Trump could replace Powell after his term ends in 2026 with a dovish candidate. Additionally, Trump could appoint multiple governors to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) who would favour looser monetary policies.”

“A more dovish FOMC would expedite rate cuts and loosen inflation control, weakening the dollar and increasing investors’ demand for gold,” they pointed out. “Any manoeuvres extending executive authority over the Fed could shake market confidence in US monetary policies, further boosting gold prices.”

Moving to the Asian environment for precious metals, the analysts noted that India continues to see robust demand for gold. “Gold imports to India remained strong in May, reaching ~44.5 tonnes, signalling above-average levels of gold purchasing,” they said. “Although May’s imports were slightly lower than last year’s 58.5 tonnes, which marked a particularly high year for India’s gold consumption, high gold imports around mid-year typically translate to robust jewellery production for festivals in the third quarter.”

The analysts noted that India accounted for 95.5 tonnes of jewellery demand in Q1 of 2024, a 4% annual increase. “This is only half of China’s 184.2 tonnes of consumption in the same period (-6% year-on-year),” they wrote. “India’s jewellery consumption makes up 20% of the world’s total, and it is the second-largest consumer market for gold. Resilient demand year-to-date partly offsets the decrease of jewellery demand in China.”

They also pointed out that India’s central bank has seen a net inflow of 24.1 tonnes of gold in 2024, which already surpasses last year’s total. “The Indian central bank has been the third-largest gold purchaser amongst its peers this year, behind Turkey and China,” they said.

Gold prices remained in their recent channel between $2,300 and $2,340 during the first two days of the week, with spot gold last trading at $2,330.80, essentially flat on the session.

Turning to silver, Heraeus believes the expansion of the U.S. solar manufacturing industry combined with increasing barriers to trade could serve to boost domestic silver demand.

“In Q1’24, the US added 11 GW of new solar module manufacturing capacity, driven by substantial investments spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act,” the analysts noted. “Thanks to rapid solar deployment in every major region, silver demand from solar PVs is expected to reach a consecutive record of more than 230 moz this year (source: The Silver Institute), equal to ~19% of total global use of silver."

And solar is not the only area of silver demand benefiting from the green energy transition, they noted. “Expansion of EV charging infrastructure is also an area of focus for government subsidies in the US,” they said. “Since January 2021, the number of public EV chargers has grown by 55% to ~175,000 across the country (source: Joint Office of Energy and Transportation). The rollout of large-scale electric infrastructure requires the use of silver in connectors and various components.”

“Moreover, the US is expected to announce several tariffs aimed at curbing Chinese circumvention practices, such as evading tariffs by setting up PV manufacturing plants in Southeast Asia,” Heraeus wrote. “These trade barriers could segment the market and put pressure on the US government to expand domestic demand, creating a bullish outlook for silver’s industrial uses.”

Silver prices have seen mildly positive momentum this week, with spot silver hitting a session high of $29.823 shortly after 10 am EDT on Tuesday, and last trading at $29.552 for a gain of 0.35% on the daily chart.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Price News: Gold Ends Flat on Friday Eyes On US

Gold Price News: Gold Ends Flat on Friday, Eyes On US

Gold News

Market Analysis

Gold prices ended little changed on Friday after US inflation figures came out in line with market expectations.

Prices did manage a modest intraday gain, rising to $2,340 an ounce in the mid-afternoon, European time, but trading at this level could not be sustained and prices slipped back to $2,327 an ounce later in the session, almost unchanged day-on-day.

The keenly-watched US core PCE price index, the US Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, nudged higher by 0.1% in May from April’s level, according to data released Friday. The slight uptick was in line with market expectations, providing little impetus for gold prices on Friday.

Gold’s bounce off the $2,300 an ounce mark on Thursday last week was a bullish signal in itself, as this is a level that was previously tested in early May and again in the second week of June. This suggests buyers are willing to step into the market at levels below $2,300. Other things being equal, this may help to solidify support further at this level.

However, Dutch bank ABN Amro on June 27 issued a research report saying it is cautious on gold prices going forward, and kept its forecast for December 2024 unchanged at $2,000 an ounce – more than $300 below current market prices: Gold Watch – Outlook for gold prices – ABN AMRO Bank

The bank’s rationale included a view that positive momentum is declining in gold prices; unusual positive relationships between gold, the US dollar and US treasury real yields are not expected to last; and a lack of a current shortage in physical gold.

Looking ahead, data releases on Monday include the preliminary German inflation rate for June, followed by the June US ISM Manufacturing PMI figures. After an unexpected decline in May, any further drops in US manufacturing activity could support calls for interest rate cuts.

Further ahead, the markets will also be watching out for Tuesday’s Euro Area inflation rate flash for June, a planned speech by US Fed chair Jerome Powell, and the US JOLTs job openings figures for May.

Kitco Media

Frank Watson

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction: Analyzing Market Trends and Future Potential

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction: Analyzing Market Trends and Future Potential

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction: Analyzing Market Trends and Future Potential

The Future of Ethereum: An In-Depth Analysis. We're going to discuss Ethereum, and this is the only blog post you need to read to understand its potential, whether it's a good idea to invest in Ethereum, and what we are doing as traders with Ethereum right now. We'll also discuss what has happened to my short trade on Ethereum because many misconceptions are circulating online, saying that the merge has failed to push the price of Ethereum to a new all-time high of two thousand dollars, three thousand dollars, or whatever.

So, I wanted to discuss what is happening, why it is going down, and what we can realistically expect. What is my honest and humble price target for Ethereum in 2025? Let's give it a three-year time frame. In the next three years, what is going to be the price of Ethereum? This is what I'm going to discuss in this blog post. I'm going to give you real reasons behind it and my explanation, etc.

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction

CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

Now, when it comes to the technicals, let's quickly get this out of the way before we start talking about more stuff. Right now, we are still in bearish control, so to speak, in terms of price action. I got kicked out of my short trade. I'm going to tell you exactly why, but currently, again, we entered here and we are still moving down. We have a higher low, a lower high, and another lower high. This was also a lower high and another lower high. So, in reality, we're just slowly moving down, potentially continuing to move lower.

We might see our initial target met at about 1150 and then potentially a thousand dollars in the short-term perspective. But again, this is a little bit negative, I understand, but this is in a short-term perspective. In a long-term perspective, I'm going to tell you exactly where it could reach and we’re going to reach a certain conclusion.

SHORT-TERM PRICE ACTION: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

The reason why I got kicked out of it is because I expected, in terms of my risk and money management, that it would move lower. But then it got pushed above this area right here. Then it retested it here, and this area is very important because there is a big order block standing right here. So, it was a bit of a challenge. That's why I told you guys in my Telegram channel to join my free Telegram Channel. There is a link down in the description of this video. Also, follow me on Twitter, just the verified account. I'm doing a huge one-thousand-dollar giveaway, which is going to be announced on the 30th of September. Here are all the rules that you need to follow in a pinned tweet, so go and follow me there.

TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

Right now, it seems like we are again respecting these levels. This is a very important resistance beyond which anyone should exit their short trade because the model of this bearish control in the short-term perspective is going to be broken with a potential target of fourteen hundred dollars. Right now, we're moving down, so it could be another interesting entry in a short trade, but for now, I'm just going to stay away from it.

So, on Ethereum, I left and I've taken the profit. I got the profit out of the exchange as well, so this is awesome. By the way, guys and girls, if you've used my link down in the description or in the pinned comment of this video, and you've signed up using my link, then there is a 20 USDT bonus waiting for you. How to claim it on Bitget: you have to go to the reward center, click on the reward center, and when you use my link to sign up, you're going to see a bunch of bonuses here.

I see this four-thousand-dollar first deposit bonus, but if you use my link because I didn't use my link, then you can get up to eight thousand dollars in initial deposit bonuses and other insane coupons here as well that you can claim. Then in your rewards, click ‘My Rewards' and you will see this 20 USDT sign-up bonus that you've got because you used my link.

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YOU SIMPLY CLICK

You simply click ‘Claim' and then you will receive it in your account that you can use for your trading. Whatever money you make, it's pretty cool because it gives you a start even if you have literally zero. So, use my link down below in the pinned comment or in the description of this video. Remember that when you're trading on Bitget when you use my link, Bitget is going to pay you for every trade that you're taking in the way of rebates of your commission, and it's going to be credited directly into your spot account, which is amazing. Use it right now.

Also, if you don't want to be trading with Bitget, that's fine. There are other exchanges that I'm recommending. Bybit is also very good and down in the description or in the pinned comment, you can claim up to four thousand dollars. Binance is pretty good as well. Binance is the biggest one. There is a 600 bonus down below as well.

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction

WHY TRADE WITH BITGET?

The reason why I trade with Bitget is that they have the biggest bonuses, and they have a cool copy trading platform which I'm considering becoming a part of. So let me know in the comments if I should become part of this copy trading platform so you can copy my trades. If you want, you can spread out the number of exchanges you're using because I use at least five different exchanges, but mainly Bitget because I love Bitget. Anyway, let's move on to the main topic.

SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVES

In the short-term perspective, as I said, we have this expectation that we could potentially go as low as a thousand dollars or, quite frankly, depending on what's going to happen with inflation. If you haven't seen my previous video, I'm going to link it right here. Check it out because it's mega important. It's going to explain a lot, like why in a short-term perspective, we're going to potentially see so much pain and even something in this vicinity.

ETHEREUM COULD BOTTOM OUT: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

Ethereum could bottom out in the vicinity between 400 and a thousand dollars, even though it sounds scary. But with the current inflation rate and the Fed's hawkish policy right now, their approach to raising interest rates is not giving us any optimism right now. They could be raising interest rates into 2023. There are many historical comparisons with what we can see and the market effect, so go and watch this previous video that I've done. Right now, let's talk about Ethereum because even though we're seeing short-term pain, this allows us to accumulate.

THE MERGE AND BEYOND

Okay, let's talk about what happened here. We saw this optimism that the merge is finally happening after so many years. The merge is happening. It's switching from POW to POS. Great, amazing, beautiful. You know it was a ‘buy the rumors' right here and ‘sell the news' event right here. That's why we're going down right now and we could keep going down.

A lot of people are saying, “Oh well, you know what it failed and it's a scam.” You know, as always, that's what some people say in crypto. But what they don't understand is that the merge is just the first small piece of the puzzle. Then there will be a Surge, then there will be a Verge, Purge, and Splurge at the end. This is a plan that has been there all along. So it's like one, two, three, four, five stages and we are currently at stage number one which was successful. Yes, it was like an event of ‘buy the rumors' right here and then ‘sell the news' here. Sure, but does it have anything to do with the future? The fact that the merge was successful is amazing because it laid the foundation for Surge, Verge, Purge, and Splurge. How difficult is it to understand this?

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction

THE SURGE

So, let's take a look. The merge, the fact that it became successful was expected and it did cut Ethereum's power usage by more than 99%. So it's green, it's great for institutional investors for those who are worried about climate change and all that. It also reduced the asset issuance so right now, Ethereum has become deflationary. Many expected Ethereum emissions to become net negative, which it did. It became deflationary. So when there is inflation in fiat, which we're suffering from right now, Ethereum is deflationary. If you're holding one Ethereum, it's becoming theoretically more valuable because there is going to be less Ethereum with every year and every day and every amazing minute. That's why it has the nickname ‘ultrasound money'.

THE SURGE PHASE: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

The next phase is the Surge, and this is what a lot of people complained about. They said that the merge didn't solve the problem with gas fees, it still is an expensive network, and it's slow. You know, other ones are faster.

It's true, but again, people don't understand what is going to come next. They don't understand that there are Surge, Verge, Purges, and Splurges. So when the next phase, the Surge, comes, this phase will bring sharding to the Ethereum blockchain. Sharding is a scaling solution that breaks Ethereum into separate portions or shards to spread out the network's computational load.

THIS UPGRADE IS PLANNED FOR 2023 AND WILL ROUGHLY BRING ETHEREUM

This upgrade is planned for 2023 and will roughly bring Ethereum to 85-80% completion based on Vitalik's expectations in January. So this is what I've been telling you all along. The Surge will happen in 2023, which is going to bring scaling to Ethereum, reducing gas fees, and also increasing the speed from 30 transactions to potentially as fast as Visa and Mastercard at a hundred thousand transactions per second. It's going to do it incredibly quickly. So within the next 12 months, okay, maybe not the beginning of 2023 because it's very soon, I think maybe in the middle, of next summer.

This is when this is going to happen, and it's going to have the same kind of effect in terms of the price. It's going to be potentially again ‘buy the rumors' somewhere and then ‘sell the news', and then people are going to realize that Vitalik's team is doing things and it's not as slow as everybody expected. Certainly, it was going to take three years to complete the Surge. We could see some pain, yes, but they've completed the merge. From what I understand from my research, it’s not going to be as difficult to complete the next stages.

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction

THE VERGE, PURGE, AND SPLURGE

The next one is going to be the Verge, referring to the introduction of Verkle trees. This is very important. If you want more detail, you can research this online and understand what Verkle trees are. This upgrade will involve a powerful upgrade to Merkle proofs, which optimizes data storage for Ethereum nodes. It will also assist Ethereum scaling, as it allows for a greater number of blockchain transactions while keeping the blockchain decentralized. So basically, it’s like the same thing: Roll-Ups, sharding, and the whole concept. How they’ve built this plan is going to, by probably 2024-2025, create this incredible ultrasound money out of Ethereum.

THE PURGE AND SPLURGE: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

The next thing is going to be the Purge, which will be a similar upgrade to the Verge concerning data storage for validators, aka future ETH stakes. It will reduce the hard drive space required for validators, introduce historical data and bad debt streamline storage, and reduce network congestion. Again, scaling. Then the final upgrade will be the Splurge, a series of miscellaneous upgrades made simply to ensure the network runs smoothly after the prior four stages are dealt with. So this is the plan. The merge was just the beginning.

PRICE EXPECTATIONS FOR ETHEREUM

Now it brings us to the question: What do I expect from the price in the short term? In the short-term perspective, I already told you we can see potential downside from anything from another 20% to even maybe something as crazy as 60%, depending on macroeconomics. The macro right now is predominant. What is happening in Russia? Russia is mobilizing forces again. It’s a crazy situation right now. What’s going to happen with inflation and the risk of stagflation? All of these things are understandable. From a short-term perspective, we can see a lot of pain.

LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

When it comes to a long-term perspective, I’m looking at something like the next Bitcoin halving cycle, which is happening probably in the first quarter of 2024. We already know that during the halving cycle, we are going to move higher.

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

That’s going to trigger the next bull run. If the bottom is not in yet, then it’s going to be in the next half a year to three-quarters of a year. With Ethereum, once we move down and find this bottom, from there, I believe that with the institutional adoption and everything that the Ethereum Foundation and Vitalik are doing, with just a quick calculation of the potential market cap for Ethereum and the introduction of all the biggest names in smart money, such as BlackRock working with Coinbase, so many things happening already in terms of adoption, it’s creeping in bit by bit. This could be a super cycle.

I’M NOT AFRAID TO SAY THAT POTENTIALLY

I’m not afraid to say that potentially, we can do something like 8X from here, which could lead us to about ten thousand dollars per Ethereum. I would probably say it’s going to be somewhere in the vicinity of 2025, maybe closer to 2026 at the latest. By that time, inflation is going to be gone. The monetary easing will be fully in power.

Certainly, the adoption is going to be happening more and more. The regulation will be in from Cynthia Lummis. I think there’s going to be a lot of interest from institutional investors for Ethereum. I think there’s going to be more interest in Ethereum than Bitcoin. Ethereum could reclaim the throne as the biggest cryptocurrency out there. Bitcoin will still be there as a store of value, a hedge against inflation, but in terms of the biggest use cases, it will be for Ethereum: metaverse, NFTs, institutional investors, deflationary asset, staking rewards, fast, low gas fees, a fast network itself. So, my modest expectation for Ethereum for 2025 would be at least ten thousand dollars. For this reason, right now, when we are seeing some short-term pullback, imagine this allows you to buy more and more.

CONCLUSION

Guys, I'm going to link an interesting tutorial to Bitget, where you can learn how to get paid on Bitget for trading and get money back from Bitget. So, even if you're a break-even trader, you will make some money. As always, let me know down in the comments what you guys think and make some noise. Make some love. Join my Telegram channel. Follow me on Twitter. As always, stay smart, stay rich, and I'll see you in the next blog post. Bye.

https://rtateblogspot.com/2024/04/14/advice-for-those-just-starting-out-in-the-crypto-market/

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter