Gold at 2010 or 1985 is a ‘buying opportunity’ and 2024 will be a ‘golden year’ for metals – Graceland’s Stewart Thomson

Gold at $2010 or $1985 is a 'buying opportunity' and 2024 will be a 'golden year' for metals – Graceland's Stewart Thomson

Gold prices are likely to take a breather for the next week or two, but any pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to buy ahead of the 2024 bull market, according to Stewart Thomson, President of Graceland Investment Management.

“The key ‘thrill of victory and agony of very temporary defeat’ weekly gold chart,” Thomson wrote.

He said that broadening patterns are an indication of loss of control in markets. “The wild Sunday night and Monday gold price action is “textbook” for the huge broadening pattern in play,” he said.

Thomson said that while stochastics is now showing a crossover sell signal, RSI is not. “The most likely scenario now is a pause for a week or two, and then another more significant rally to above the immense $2080 ‘line in the sand’,” he said.

He said that investors looking for tactical moves in the current market should consider gold equities. “Gold stock enthusiasts who did some selling into the $2080 gold price area should now focus on buying at $2010, $1985, and $1928.”

Thomson also shared “key buy zones” for the precious metal itself which he said should be the focus for long-term accumulators.

“From the $2145 area high, a drop to support at $2010 is a $130/oz price sale,” he wrote. “A drop to $1985 support is a $155/oz sale, and the $217/oz drop to $1928 support would be a truly epic price sale but this last one is unlikely to happen.”

“I’m not a big fan of sloping trendlines in the gold market, but they are helpful at times,” he added. “Note the green trendlines defining the volatile uptrend. A drop to the lower trendline would put gold at the big $2010-$1985 support area. It’s a ‘must buy’ zone for most gold stock enthusiasts. I call it a golden stocking stuffer for Christmas 2023!”

Looking at the U.S. dollar, Thomson said the DXY chart is indicating “some minor inverse H&S action” which would support a one- to two-week pause for gold.

“US rates aren’t confirming the action in the dollar,” he warned. “There’s a dead cat bounce, but the weekly chart suggests a much bigger dip in rates lies ahead.”

“The bottom line is that 2024 is likely to be a ‘golden year’ for the metals, and rates may stay low until 2026 or 2027 before the US government creates the next massive wave of inflation with its drug-like addiction to fiat, meddling, spending, and debt,” he said. “From there, the Fed would start hiking again and gold would take an initial hit but it would happen from a much higher level than where it is now. How high? Probably $3000+, and at that point, most money managers would have a keen interest in the miners, a ‘here to stay’ interest.”

Thomson concluded with a look at those miners, in the form of “the stunning GDX chart.”

“A textbook inverse H&S pattern (with breakout) is now the head of what could be a much bigger pattern,” he wrote. “While the gold bullion market action is wild, GDX and most gold stocks look great! The right shoulder build could take GDX to just under $29, but it doesn’t need to go that low.”

By

Ernest Hoffman

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold bull market is just getting started silver has even greater upside and Bitcoin ETFs will flop – Peter Schiff

Gold bull market is just getting started, silver has even greater upside, and Bitcoin ETFs will flop – Peter Schiff

While gold has backed well off the all-time highs it set two days ago and Bitcoin has stolen the spotlight, the real bull market for gold and silver is only just beginning, according to Peter Schiff, founder of Schiff Gold and Chief Market Strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management.

“A lot of people are taking this to mean that that's it, this is some kind of blowoff top, this is the end of the gold bull market,” Schiff said in a video posted on Monday. “I think this is just the beginning.”

Schiff said he thinks the fact that gold traded above 2100 for the first time and set a new all-time high “is indicative of a new bull market, not an old bull market that's dying, but a new one that's just been born.”

He said the market has spent the last several months building massive support for the gold price. “Even in the face of relentless Fed rate hikes and tough talk about doing whatever it takes to combat inflation, gold has held pretty firm despite what the markets perceive as very strong headwinds, with a strengthening dollar and rising yields that are normally perceived as a big negative for gold.”

Schiff said the precious metal has held up very well and has enjoyed “overwhelming demand” from investors.

Looking at the specific circumstances of the sudden rally early in Monday’s Asian trading session, he said it appears to have been the result of geopolitical concerns and opportunistic market players acting amidst low liquidity.

“I believe that some short-term speculators who had bought gold took advantage of the gap up,” Schiff said. “The catalyst was heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and I'm sure more of that is going to come, but I think traders who are very short-term focused wanted to put those profits in their pocket because obviously anybody who had bought gold was looking at some good profits, especially if they were levered up.”

Schiff said that we’re now seeing prices come back down to earth, and he sees the $2,000 level as firm support. “Does that mean there's some kind of line in the sand where gold can't go below $2,000? No, but I think there'll be tremendous buying at any opportunity to buy below $2,000,” he said. “I think that we've cleared a pathway and there are tremendous gains coming.”

Addressing the recent shift in rate cut expectations, Schiff said he believes that the Federal Reserve has shot their shot, and rates are on their way down no matter what the central bank says.

“Wall Street is already pricing in rate Cuts as early as Q1, Q2 of next year, so the hikes are over as far as Wall Street is concerned,” he said. “If gold couldn't go much below $2,000 when the Fed was hiking rates, imagine where it can go now that it stopped hiking and is about to cut.”

Schiff said markets must come to terms with the reality that inflation is not dead, and it won’t go much lower. “Where we are now, maybe three, four percent, that's as close as the Fed's going to get, because I think we're getting close to a major dollar selloff,” he said. “The Fed can bark about fighting inflation, [but] it really can't bite, because it doesn't have any teeth.”

“If it really does what it takes to put that inflation genie back in the bottle, it will create the mother of all financial [crises] that will make 2008 look like a Sunday school picnic, and it will also force the U.S. government into insolvency.”

Schiff said that the Fed will respond to the coming fiscal crisis the same way they responded to the financial crisis, “by printing money, creating inflation, and then the bottom's going to drop out of the dollar. Inflation is going through the roof, and gold is going to be leading the way.”

He was adamant that the time to buy gold is now. “Now that we've taken out this resistance, if you haven't already bought your gold, buy some,” he said. “If you have gold but you can buy more, if you don't feel like you have a strong enough position, you can add to it.”

Schiff said that he believes silver is an even better buy at current prices. “It's still around $25, it's still half of its 52-week high,” he said. “In fact, silver traded at $50 an ounce back in 1980. Think about what's happened in the last 44 years… how many things could you buy today at the same price as 44 years ago? If you don't have any silver, this is definitely the time to buy.”

He also couldn’t resist taking another shot at Bitcoin. “If you're holding any ‘fool's gold’, Bitcoin stole a lot of gold thunder today because Bitcoin rose above $42,000,” he said. “All the financial headlines were focused on what's happening in Bitcoin, very few were even paying attention to what happened in gold.”

Schiff said that the recent rise in cryptocurrencies is being fueled by “rampant speculation” based on the prospect of several spot Bitcoin ETFs being approved in the United States. “You have the whole community speculating that as soon as investors have a chance to buy Bitcoin in a spot ETF they're going to buy it, and it's going to create all this demand which is going to send prices higher,” he said. “I don't believe there's this huge pent-up demand that has been sitting on the sideline for years waiting for a spot ETF.”

“I think the people waiting for the spot ETF are the sellers, particularly the whales, who maybe view this as an opportunity to unload a bunch of Bitcoin on the bag holders who buy the ETFs,” Schiff said. “I don't think it's going to work out.”

Spot gold last traded at $2,019.17, down 0.48% on the session, while Bitcoin is currently up 4.09% on the day and trading at $43,705 at the time of writing.

By

Ernest Hoffman

For Kitco News

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold spikes to record high backs off sharply bulls now exhausted

Gold spikes to record high, backs off sharply; bulls now exhausted

Gold and silver prices sharply lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, after gold overnight spiked to a new record high of $2,152.30, basis February Comex futures. Silver hit a seven-month high overnight. The two precious metals markets are seeing the shorter-term futures traders taking profits after the recent solid gains. Importantly, today's price action in gold and silver suggests the bulls are now near-term exhausted and that near-term (but not longer-term) market tops are in place. By this I mean that gold and silver prices have probably peaked for at least a few weeks, it not a while longer, but after that new highs are probable—likely sometime in 2024. February gold was last down $44.10 at $2,046.00. March silver was last down $0.997 at $24.875.

Daily bearish elements for the gold and silver markets to start the trading week are solid gains in the U.S. dollar index, rising U.S. Treasury yields and weaker crude oil prices. However, both metals remain supported by still-overall-bullish technical charts, a generally depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, generally falling bond yields, ongoing safe-haven demand, and notions the major central banks of the world will back off on their interest-rate-increase cycles. A serious escalation in the Middle East turmoil would likely push gold and silver prices higher and in more rapid fashion.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are lower near midday. Risk aversion is keener to start the trading week as tensions in the Middle East are on the rise. Missiles fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels struck three commercial ships Sunday in the Red Sea, while a U.S. warship shot down three drones in self-defense, the U.S. military said. The Iranian-backed Houthis claimed two of the attacks. Meantime, Israel has resumed its military offensive in the Gaza strip.

  Is Argentina's new anti-central bank stance triggering a new trend? – Cory Klippsten

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $73.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.448%.

Technically, February gold futures prices scored a record high of $2,152.30 overnight and then promptly reversed course to sell off sharply and score a technically bearish "key reversal" down on the daily bar chart. That's one chart clue the bulls are out of gas and that a near-term market top is in place. The bulls so still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at today's record high of $2,152.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at $2,075.00 and then at last week's high of $2,095.70. First support is seen at $2,030.00 and then at $2,015.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

March silver futures prices scored a big and bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. The bulls appear to have run out of gas. The silver bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at today's high of $26.34. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at $25.50 and then at $25.775. Next support is seen at $24.50 and then at $24.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 935 points at 383.80 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. Prices Friday hit a four-month high. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but appear exhausted now. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 404.45 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and then at last week's high of 393.30 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 378.60 cents and then at 375.80 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Try out my "Markets Front Burner" email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, "When China sneezes…" Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it's free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Spot gold price rockets through resistance on Sunday evening setting new all-time highs

Spot gold price rockets through resistance on Sunday evening, setting new all-time highs

Spot gold opened the Sunday evening session with massive momentum, obliterating key resistance levels and the previous high to set a new all-time high of $2,148.99 within the first half-hour of trading.

Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at InTheMoneyStocks.com and President of VerifiedInvesting.com, told Kitco News that the move was driven by a powerful combination of rate cut expectations and technical levels.

“Gold surged through its all-time highs on the back of hopes for lower rates sooner (vs higher for longer), future money printing expectations and stops being triggered on the break of $2,100,” he said. “The inverse head and shoulder pattern has triggered (assuming a daily close above $2,080).”

Soloway said a “calculated target for 2024 sits at $2,534,” which would represent a completion of the inverse head and shoulders pattern breakout.

“Investors are likely to favor gold as a way to protect against recession, inflation, money printing and the classic safety trade,” he added.

Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at CityIndex and Forex.com, wrote on X that traders need to be cautious about what this move means for gold prices as it happened while liquidity was low.

“Gold just made minced meat out of the 2022 / prior record high, rising $75 at the open and smashing above its 1-week implied volatility band,” Simpson said. “Lots of gold headlines are to be expected. But I remain suspicious of the move, given it occurred during low liquidity trade.”

Simpson admitted that he completely missed the move, but he’s also “happy to sit on the side line and avoid the inevitable chop that could follow.”

After setting the new all-time high shortly after 6:30 pm EST, spot gold has ratcheted steadily lower, last trading at $2,091.48, but still up nearly 1.00% on the session.

By

Ernest Hoffman

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold starts December with all-time highs but can continue to ignore a hawkish Fed – analysts

Gold starts December with all-time highs; but can continue to ignore a hawkish Fed – analysts

A record closing price in November wasn't enough for gold investors, as solid momentum has pushed prices to an all-time high ahead of the weekend.

February gold futures last traded at $2,091.90 an ounce, up more than 4% from last Friday's close. Gold's previous record was at $2,089.20 in August 2020.

Gold is seeing renewed buying momentum as markets continue to price in a potential rate cut as early as March. The precious metal's rally comes even as the central bank maintains its tightening stance. Friday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that he is still not confident monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive enough to bring down inflation to 2%.

However, markets are paying little attention to what Powell is saying, as the CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are now pricing in a more than 50% chance of a rate cut in the first quarter of 2024.

"The precious metal remains supported by Fed cut bets while technical factors continue to support the upside momentum,' said Lukman Otunuga, Manager of Market Analysis at Forexlive.com. "In the absence of any fresh fundamental catalyst, November's monthly close above $2000 could provide a foundation for bulls to send prices higher."

Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer of Zaye Capital Markets, said this could be the start of a bigger move for gold with "bright days ahead."

"We believe that the Fed has reached its peak of rate hike cycle regardless of what some members of the Fed continue to say," he said. "We believe that there are actual real chances that the Fed will cut the rate towards the back end of Q1 next year. However, the threat remains stubborn inflation. If we don't see CPI flirting with the 3% mark or even lower, the Fed may keep rates at the current level till the end of H1."

Although the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy still poses a risk for gold, some analysts have said that a slowing economy means that, ultimately, the Federal Reserve's next move will be to cut rates, potentially sooner rather than later.

Robert Minter, director of ETF Investment Strategy at abrdn, said that cracks continue to appear in the U.S. commercial real estate market as the sector continues to feel the effects of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes and high vacancies as workers continue to work from home.

"If – that's a big ‘if,' but if we are seeing the beginning of commercial real estate bubble popping, there will be more money printing. That's part of what we are seeing with the gold price again today. Another part is the market pricing in no more rate hikes, and a higher potential for rate cuts in the near future. – then we could get a gold bull market like the last three times the Fed Funds rate cycle was in this spot," Minter said in a comment to Kitco News.

Minter added that the last three times the Federal Reserve has paused its tightening cycle, gold has rallied 57%, 235% and 69%, respectively. He pointed out that gold prices are so far up 5.4% since the Fed moved to a neutral stance.

Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, also noted that gold could be catching a safe-haven bid even as economic data remains fairly resilient.

"Gold is internalizing that people do not feel that way. Experts talk of a ‘rupture in our economic health and social fabric,' but less dramatically, people are simply feeling worse off than before and that's being expressed through havens," she said.

At the same time, analysts note that gold prices continue to move higher even as most retail investors shun the market. Analysts have said that gold prices will really move when this sentiment starts to shift.

Despite this optimism, some analysts recommend investors be cautious with gold at these levels and not to chase the market.

Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said that gold prices could be limited ahead of next Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.

"This is because the current expectations of Fed rate cuts of 50 basis points by mid-2024 are more likely to be disappointed. Accordingly, we also envisage a correction in the gold market. This could be triggered by the US labor market report at the end of the week," she said.

Some economists have said that investors should also pay attention to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey as inflation expectations have been elevated in recent months.

Phillip Streible said he also thinks the market has gotten a little ahead of itself as a March rate hike seems unlikely. He noted that it is unlikely the Fed will cut rates until inflation is closer to its 2% target.

Economic data for next week:

Tuesday: ISM Service-sector PMI, U.S. JOLTS Job Openings

Wednesday: ADP private sector employment, Bank of Canada monetary policy decision

Thursday: Weekly jobless claims

Friday: nonfarm payrolls, University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

  Gold prices to see a sustained push above $2,100 in 2024 – TD Securities

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The traffic generation the best converting sites for generating quality traffic that turns into members on your list

The traffic generation the best converting sites for generating quality traffic that turns into members on your list.

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These are some of the best articles and blogs that I think you might find useful and informative. You can check out their links for more details and features. I hope this helps! 😊


Tim Moseley

Gold breaks record high is a new record price high around the corner?

Gold breaks record high is a new record price high around the corner?

As the saying goes; you ain't seen nothing yet! The price of Spot gold today is fixed at $2070.10, just about $10 below the record high achieved in May, according to Kitco News. Based on the continuous contract of gold futures which merges the most active contract month into the next most month active month broke the record high today. Closing at $2091.30, after factoring in today's gain of $35.10 or 1.71%. The highest close on record for the continuous futures contract occurred on Thursday, May 4 when gold futures hit an intraday high of approximately $2083 and closed at approximately $2059.

With this in mind, it is quite realistic to assume that gold could continue to challenge its record-high close. The chart above is a projection created this week using a combination of Elliott wave theory and Fibonacci extensions. It uses a model based on the ratio of impulse waves three and five. The most simplistic model states the relationship of the price gains in wave five is approximately 0.618% of the price gains found in wave three. Using this methodology, it is projecting the high to be achieved after a major Supercycle from 1975 to 2023 to be $2072.

In 2016 I co-authored a piece with my son Joseph Wagner titled “Gold's Super Cycle” in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities (TASC) in which we put forth a model of gold's super cycle that began in the 1970s following Nixon's final step to abolish the gold standard. The decoupling of gold and the US dollar kicked off a supercycle in the precious metal spanning over 50 years, the impulse phase of which (waves one through five) could have very well been completed today.

In the publication put forth by us approximately nine years ago, we predicted that we were in the fifth wave of gold's Supercycle and that the fifth wave would conclude at approximately $2063. Today's closing price in gold futures came within the margin of error of those projections. This study illustrates the power of Elliott wave theory and the Fibonacci sequence and suggests that gold may have concluded its fifth wave as well as its current rally. So does this study predict that gold will not trade any higher?

The simple answer is that on a long-term basis, no. However, on a short-term basis, it is very plausible. This is because gold will likely enter some sort of a correction (A, B, C) before beginning a new bullish Supercycle, as long as no new fundamental change occurs.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Rally in gold and silver is far from over

Rally in gold and silver is far from over

From the beginning of October to the last day in November silver has had a profound and dramatically strong gain. This despite one moderately deep correction beginning on October 19, and concluding on November 13. Monday, November 13, was the exact day that Silver pivoted back to a bullish demeanor. During the short span of a couple of weeks, silver futures traded from their lows at $21.93 to their current fix of $25.67.

Gold also ran a very parallel course with its rally beginning during the first week of October when it was trading at a mere $1840 per ounce, to the conclusion of the first leg of this rally occurring on Friday, October 27 at approximately $2040. Like silver, a strong correction followed taking gold to $1960 during the middle of November. Both precious metals resumed the rally with a vengeance once they individually completed their correction.

While both metals gained tremendous ground in terms of percentage gains market sentiment seemed to be favoring gold as a haven asset over silver. Gold pricing had a much more substantial gain than silver while both precious metals had more than respectable performances.

Because of its high usage as a major industrial component silver has had strong demand. However, according to the World Council, the pace at which central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold is at a new record and astute investors need to step back and wonder why.

More importantly, the underlying reasons that these metals will continue to rise are fairly transparent. Our national debt has grown to a record level above $34 trillion. The cost to just service the interest on that debt is quickly becoming as expensive as the annual Defense Department’s budget. Both Chairman Powell and Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen are on record stating emphatically that this is not sustainable. Add to that the multiple geopolitical hotspots that continue to rage, a recent decline in the dollar, and an imminent pivot by the Federal Reserve from a highly restrictive policy to a more accommodative one that officials are beginning to speak about.

While the above-mentioned economic fabric will be beneficial to both precious metals it is gold that will continue to gain value at a much greater pace than silver. The key takeaway for precious metals investors is that continued accumulation of physical gold and silver will be of great benefit further down the road.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The WEF Want In Recommending A Global Approach For The Crypto Industry

Crypto Regulations: The WEF “Want In” Recommending A Global Approach For The Crypto Industry 

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is notorious for having a far-reaching and perplexing influence over companies and institutions in many countries worldwide. This influence extends to the crypto industry and crypto regulations. The WEF published a crypto regulation white paper in May 2023, which is significant, so we’ll take a look at what they have to say and how it could influence the crypto legislation being proposed worldwide. We’ll also examine how it could affect the crypto market if implemented.


Image source: Weforum.com

The WEF white paper summarized in this article is titled “Pathways to the Regulation of Crypto-Assets: A Global Approach.” The white paper begins with a brief preface by a member of WEF’s Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. For context, WEF founder and chairman Klaus Schwab conjured up the Fourth Industrial Revolution. This concept involves replacing all of us so-called serfs with AI and Automation. Another component of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is controlling the population with technology. 

In the preface, the question is asked of how governments can control a borderless, open-source, and decentralized technology. Naturally, the only solution is a globally coordinated approach to regulation. The author of the preface reveals that the WEF has been engaging in “multi-stakeholder consultations” to understand how to roll out global crypto regulations. 

For reference, a stakeholder is a term the WEF uses to describe powerful individuals and institutions, not ordinary people like us. In this case, the author of the preface specifies that the white paper was put together with “significant contributions from members of the Digital Currency Governance Consortium.” (DCGC)

For those unfamiliar, the DCGC was formed in January 2020, including multiple crypto companies. The complete list of DCGC members is private. Still, research on the WEF reveals that Ripple, also the Ethereum company, Consensus, and USDC issuer Circle are all part of the DCGC, as are dozens of prolific personalities in the crypto industry. 

The DCGC has published five reports so far, and the WEF website notes that it is currently in phase two of its master plan, which involves assessing the economic effects of crypto, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies. (CBDCs) 

The Key Takeaways

The next section of the white paper provides a summary of the key takeaways. Here, the authors argue that global crypto regulations are not only desirable but “necessary.” They seem to suggest this is because of the increasing connections between crypto and traditional finance. The authors explain that many things are standing in the way of global crypto regulations, including: 

  • A lack of universally accepted definitions for different types of cryptos, 
  • A lack of coordination between Regulatory Agencies 
  • Regulatory Arbitrage, meaning some countries are too pro-crypto. 

The authors highlight that many unaccountable and unelected international organizations have been working on global crypto regulations. This includes the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Financial Action Task Force. (FATF) The authors admit that the WEF has been in contact with these organizations but insist that academia, civil society, and crypto users will also have a say in global crypto regulations. Of course, the authors don't put a timeline on when we will have a say in this matter; but we have yet to have a say in anything. 

Why Are Global Crypto Regulations Required?

The first part of the report is about why global crypto regulations are required. The authors start by explaining what crypto assets are and include stablecoins under the definition of a crypto asset. Note that these reports seldom refer to cryptos as currencies; they believe cryptos are not currencies. That said, the authors do acknowledge that cryptos have some financial use cases. They say that this is why regulatory scrutiny around crypto has increased. 

As you might have guessed, they refer to the crash of Terra last May and the crash of FTX last November as examples of why regulatory scrutiny is justified. The authors then explain that different jurisdictions have since introduced different crypto regulations. They claim that this increases the risk to the global financial system and benefits bad actors in the crypto industry. 

They also highlight the inconsistency in crypto definitions. The authors then suggest that smart contracts could be one way of ensuring regulatory compliance. This is not surprising considering that the WEF is a massive fan of programmability in payments. Again, the WEF and its affiliates ultimately want to control what people do, and programmable payments are one way to do just that.
 
When it comes to regulating cryptocurrencies, the authors say the first step is identifying where the crypto activity is taking place, if possible. The second step is to determine who is engaging in the crypto activity, and the authors say that privacy coins, personal wallets, and DeFi protocols make this problematic. This is a worry because it implies that personal wallets will be a target of global crypto regulations. 

Although, in fairness, the authors of this white paper don't seem to be that opposed to personal wallets. That's because they know that if you buy your crypto through an exchange with KYC, it's easy to identify which wallet belongs to who with the help of blockchain analytics companies like Chainalysis.  According to the authors, the third step to regulating crypto is determining who is responsible for any crypto activity. They admit this is sometimes difficult, mainly when dealing with decentralized protocols. They note that this will become easier if DAOs become regulated entities.

Crypto And Traditional Finance Connections

In the next section, the authors dig deeper into the connections between crypto and traditional finance. They start by saying that the crypto market’s correlation to BTC's price is a sign of maturity. Now this is arguably incorrect; a decoupling between different crypto categories would be a sign of maturity. What the authors do get right, however, is that institutional interest in crypto has been on the rise. 


Image source: Finoa

They cited a series of statistics from pro-crypto sources, which should be taken with a grain of salt. Genuine institutional interest and investment will come once crypto regulations are introduced everywhere. The authors also note that retail interest in crypto is on the rise and imply that this could cause problems for financial stability. This could explain why some countries, such as Canada, closely aligned with the WEF, have started introducing restrictions on retail investors in crypto. 

Besides contagion risks, the authors correctly underscore concentration risks as another concern. The crypto market relies on a handful of stablecoins, a handful of exchanges, and even a handful of cryptos. Oddly enough, the authors claim that Layer 2s on Ethereum lower this concentration risk. This is odd because many Layer 2s still rely on Ethereum for their security, which logically increases concentration risk, never mind that many of these Layer 2s are highly centralized and backed by the same investors. 

Challenges To Global Regulation 

The second part of the white paper is about the challenges to global crypto regulation. The authors start by reiterating that the absence of universally accepted crypto definitions is the biggest problem. They propose a potential taxonomy but admit that there are exceptions to every crypto definition. They then explain that this is a problem because it makes consensus about specific crypto regulations impossible. It increases the cost of crypto compliance worldwide, making it difficult to protect consumers. 


Image source: Weforum.com

According to the authors, regulatory arbitrage is the second challenge to global crypto regulation. They take issue with the fact that crypto developers can relocate wherever they want. It’s becoming all too clear that the WEF would like nothing more than to control the movement of people. 

On a related note, did you know that the WEF is also trying to turn almost every major city into a Smart City? More about that in an upcoming article. Meanwhile, Smart technology is already causing issues for consumers. 

The authors admit it might still be too soon to push for global crypto regulations. Most governments are still trying to wrap their heads around the technology. Some jurisdictions are further along than others, such as the EU, which recently passed its MiCA crypto regulations. 

The authors then reveal that these early crypto regulations, including MiCA, will come into force starting early next year. This is significant because this could make institutional investors comfortable allocating to crypto again. It means the crypto market could rally starting early next year. And this, coincidentally, corresponds with the next Bitcoin halving. 

The authors also take issue with so-called crypto hubs. They seem to imply that the crypto hub is code for ‘less crypto regulation’ and appear to blame them for causing regulatory arbitrage. If the WEF starts pulling the strings, this could be awkward for places like the UAE, Dubai, Hong Kong, and Singapore

Geopolitics

This ties into another vital angle the authors raised regarding crypto regulations – Geopolitics. International relations are deteriorating, making it difficult for certain countries to comply with global crypto regulation recommendations. It's safe to say that this trend will continue. 

The above relates to the third challenge to global crypto regulation: "Fragmented monitoring supervision and enforcement.” The authors reiterate that a lack of international cooperation is one of the core causes of this fragmentation, coupled with the rapid evolution of crypto-related technologies. 

The authors then provide the FATF's infamous travel rule as a case study. The travel rule requires all transactions above a certain threshold to be tracked and KYC’d. The authors complain about the fact that compliance with the FATF's travel rule has been slow when it comes to crypto. 

While we’re on that topic, you should know that the FATF has reportedly been pressuring countries to restrict or even permanently ban crypto to get off its grey list. Any country on this so-called naughty list is refused bailouts from the IMF, so a clean report from the FATF may be a political priority. If there is any truth to this, crypto hubs could face financial sanctions if they don't comply with the FATF’s crypto recommendations; perish the thought. 

Approaches To Regulating Crypto Globally

The third part of the white paper is about the possible approaches to regulating crypto on a global scale. The authors provide a de facto list of regulations the WEF wants to see. 

  • Crypto-specific 
  • Stablecoin-specific
  • Know Your Customer (KYC) /Anti Money Laundering (AML) 
  • Consumer protection, including restricting retail access to crypto 
  • Strict regulations around crypto marketing 
  • Regulation of DeFi and DAOs 

The authors then detail the five primary approaches to crypto regulation. 

1: The first is Principles-based regulation. This involves regulating around a series of broad principles rather than specific rules. The benefits of this approach are innovation and flexibility. The drawback is regulatory uncertainty. 

2: The second approach is Risk-based crypto regulation and involves applying the same risk/same regulation principle, meaning that crypto should abide by existing financial regulations. The benefit of this approach is regulatory certainty, and the drawback is difficulty in assessing risks. 

Notably, the WEF is a massive fan of this same risk/same regulation approach. It's why you see it in many existing regulatory recommendations for crypto. If that wasn't concerning enough, in this section, the WEF advocates for eliminating cash and going digital to ensure that KYC/AML is followed. 

3: The authors call Agile regulation the third approach to crypto regulation. This effectively allows regulations to evolve in response to new innovations. The benefit of this approach is that it is flexible. The drawback is that it requires much coordination and collaboration with the crypto industry. 

4: The fourth approach to crypto regulation is Self- and co-regulation. It involves allowing the crypto industry to set standards. The benefit of this approach is that it builds trust. The downside is that it can lead to capture; For instance, one company determines all the standards. 

5: The fifth approach to crypto regulation is one we’re all familiar with: Regulation by enforcement. It involves taking crypto companies and projects to court and using the precedent as de facto regulations. The benefit is accountability, and the drawback is zero innovation.

Interestingly, the authors asked their so-called stakeholders which regulatory approaches are best. The results can be seen in the image below. As one would expect, Risk-based regulation is the most popular, especially considering that the WEF is a fan of this particular approach. 


Image source: Weforum.com

The authors confirm that the other unaccountable and unelected organizations, such as the FSB and FATF, have been adhering to the WEF’s Risk-based approach to crypto regulation. It's preposterous to consider just how much influence the WEF has, and this is just the public stuff. 

WEF’s Recommendations for Global crypto regulations.

The fourth part of the report contains the WEF’s recommendations for Global crypto regulations. The authors explain that these recommendations are meant for international organizations, governments, and “industry stakeholders” who are presumably part of the WEF. 

In other words, these recommendations are what most crypto regulations will look like, regardless of what we, the people, say or do. The authors again claim that the average person will get the chance to give their input someday, but we’ll just have to wait and see if that happens. 

The first set of recommendations is specifically for international organizations. These are to;

  • Create definitions for different types of cryptos and crypto activities 
  • Set standards for how these cryptos and activities should be regulated
  • Share data about registered entities with all organizations. 

It brings into question whether ‘registered entities’ include the average crypto user. As it’s the WEF, the answer is probably, yes. After all, the endgame of these international elites is to create a global government with a global digital ID and a global centrally controlled digital currency. 

The second set of recommendations is specifically for governments. These are to; 

  • Coordinate regulations between jurisdictions.
  • Create regulatory certainty for the crypto industry.
  • *Use technology for regulation by design. 

*The latter means regulation at the blockchain level via Smart contracts. Remember, the WEF loves programmability. 

The third set of recommendations is specifically for the crypto industry. They are; 

  • To set standards 
  • To share best practices
  • Ensure “Responsible Innovation.” 

This seems to be code for adhering to ESG criteria, given that the term refers to environmental, social, and economic risks. 

If you've been following articles about ESG, you'll know it's an investment ideology to ensure the UN's sustainable development goals or SDGs are met. Every country is supposed to meet the UN's SDGs by 2030. My research suggests that all the dystopian stuff being pushed has its roots in the United Nation's SDGs, be it CBDCs, digital IDs, smart cities, or online censorship. 


Image credit: Markethive.com

What Affect Will It Have On The Crypto Market? 

So the big question is, how could the WEF’s global crypto regulation recommendations affect the crypto market if implemented? The short answer is that it would result in the crypto industry being absorbed into the existing financial system, which is precisely what the WEF wants. 

The practical effect of Risk-based regulation is that crypto is forced to comply with existing financial regulations. As the authors tacitly admit, these risks posed by crypto aren't always clear. Many argue that the risks are significantly different and justify different regulations. The WEF’s recommendations would make crypto worse than the existing financial system. That's because they would require information about all registered entities to be; 

  1. Shared with international organizations 
  2. Require regulations to be enforced via Smart contracts
  3. Require all cryptos to be ESG compliant 

These three unsuitable recommendations have one thing in common: Governance, more succinctly, control. This article about ESG and Bitcoin explains that the environmental aspect isn't the problem; it's the governance. Bitcoin can't be controlled because it has no traditional governance structure. In case you missed it, this is the core issue the WEF and its allies are trying to address. How do we control something that is designed not to be controlled? 

It's possible, if not likely, that the endgame of the environmental-focused attacks on Bitcoin is to track all Bitcoin miners and nodes. It’s something that the WEF’s global crypto regulations would prescribe because Bitcoin miners and nodes would presumably need to be registered. 

Their information would therefore have to be shared with all international organizations. At that point, it would become possible to control Bitcoin in theory. In practice, the WEF’s global crypto regulations will never come to pass, which the authors have also tacitly admitted. 

In addition to the geopolitical tensions, it's practically impossible to introduce the same crypto regulations in every single country simultaneously. This means that there's going to be some regulatory arbitrage, whether it's intentional or not. This regulatory arbitrage will exist for years, and in some countries, it will persist for decades. 

So long as there's a country out there that the WEF can't influence, it won't be able to entirely corrupt crypto. Also, because crypto innovation is essentially exponential, there's a high likelihood that it will evolve to the point that the WEF and its allies can’t control it. This is the most important takeaway – Crypto is too fast for the WEF. 

Klaus & Co will never be able to keep up, and crypto will eventually win the race. Right now, though, there are many hurdles facing the crypto industry, and the WEF’s white paper suggests that it played a role in putting those hurdles in place. The WEF's fingerprints are there, whether it's the FSB or the FATF. It’s also common knowledge that there are WEF allies in the crypto industry. 

Even so, many in the crypto industry who are on the right side of history, and we at Markethive, genuinely believe that the incentives of crypto are more robust than the WEF’s cronyism. Imagine helping to create a powerful crypto or protocol that allows the average person to preserve their purchasing power, grow their wealth, and maintain their financial freedom. In that case, you are rewarded in every possible way.  

As purchasing power, wealth, and financial freedom continue to erode, the incentive to create robust protocols with crypto will only increase. Eventually, the incentives will become so strong that the WEF’s hurdles will become irrelevant. The people will want freedom, and they will achieve it through crypto. 

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

References: World Economic Forum, Coinbureau

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Also published @ BeforeIt’sNews.com; Steemit.com; Substack.com

Tim Moseley

Gold silver posting modest gains amid bullish technicals

Gold, silver posting modest gains amid bullish technicals

Gold and silver prices are firmer near midday Wednesday. February gold futures hit a six-month high overnight, while March silver notched a three-month high. The two precious metals are being boosted by increasingly bullish near-term chart postures. A recently slumping U.S. dollar index that overnight hit a 3.5-month low is also a bullish outside market element for the metals markets. February gold was last up $3.90 at $2,064.10. March silver was last up $0.138 at $25.44.

(In my weekly Front Burner email report today, I detailed the price prospects for gold and silver in the coming weeks, and they are bullish. If you did not get it and are not signed up, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll forward it to you.)

U.S. economic data released today had little impact on the gold and silver markets. The second estimate of third-quarter GDP came in just a little higher than the first estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation readings were just slightly less than the first GDP estimates.

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are firmer in late-morning dealings.

  Bill Gates and other billionaire 'Controligarchs' are pushing for global digital IDs, centralized control and a 'paywall around your life' – Seamus Bruner

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $76.75 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. There is now no clear marketplace consensus on what OPEC will announce regarding its overall oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.28% and has fallen this week.

Technically, February gold futures prices hit another six-month high today. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,072.70 and then at $2,085.00. First support is seen at $2,050.00 and then at $2,039.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

March silver futures prices hit a three-month high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $26.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $25.68 and then at the August high of $25.775. Next support is seen at $25.00 and then at this week's low of $24.68. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 40 points at 383.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a 2.5-month high early on. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 392.65 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 386.45 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 378.60 cents and then at 375.80 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Try out my "Markets Front Burner" email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, "When China sneezes…" Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it's free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter