Gold Price News: Gold Runs Out of Steam
While gold has largely been in consolidation mode since 19 August, price action this week is starting to suggest a retracement with the metal now trading at c. $2486/toz. This has come against a fundamental backdrop that has little changed over recent days with a slight easing of US rates and some firming of the US dollar, creating very little net impact for non-yielding dollar-denominated assets such as gold and silver.
gold price kau on kinesis exchange
Kinesis gold (KAU) price – $/g – on Kinesis Exchange
Consequently, it seems more likely that gold’s current weakness is a function of both recent performance – up 2.3% in August amid broader market turmoil – and an absence of further clear catalysts prompting profit-taking. Certainly, multiple geopolitical flashpoints remain, but timing remains a known unknown. So, are we seeing ‘stale bulls’ remove support?
The question is pertinent. We noted on Monday that the most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders (CoT) report saw speculative gold futures net longs at a 52-month high. It certainly remains to be seen how resilient this elevated level of speculative interest remains during this period of neutral fundamental support and recent depressed price momentum
Technically, gold is currently testing both the 20-day Simple Moving Average and the 23.61% Fibonacci retracement of the 25 July- 20 August uptrend at $2490/toz. Given that the standard MACD line pushed below the signal line on Monday and has descended further since, there is a reasonable probability of a further downside break. Should this occur, then the next likely levels of support are at the 38.3% Fibonacci retracement level of $2464/toz and descending oblique major support at $2445/toz.
To the upside, we see ascending major oblique resistance at $2510/toz and major horizontal resistance at $2513/toz. The initial breakout target of $2543/toz remains.
Significant events for gold investors going forward include the Bank of Canada rate decision (with high probability of a 0.25% cut) on 4 September and August US ISM Servies PMI on 5 September.
Tim Moseley