Strong greenback, rising Treasury yields, lower oil sink gold, silver

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday, with gold hitting a six-week low and dropping below the key $1,700 level. Silver today scored a more-than-two-year low. Falling crude oil prices, a strong U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields are all bearish elements punishing the metals markets bulls. October gold futures were last down $18.80 at $1,698.10. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.277 at $17.65 an ounce.

U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday hit five-week lows. Risk aversion is higher on this first day of September, a month that history has shown can be a rocky one for stock and financial markets. Gold and silver market bulls are hoping some safe-haven demand develops if September sees rough trading waters.

There are new reports of major Covid lockdowns in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Reports said 21 million people have been locked down in a major industrial region of the country. Economic data out of China Friday was also dour, with the purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) and housing/property indicators showing weakness. This has prompted concerns of slowing consumer and commercial demand in China, which have pressured raw commodity markets this week, with crude oil leading the way down. Other major economies are tightening their monetary policies, which will also work to slow their growth. Many market watchers fear U.S. and global economic recessions are setting in.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s employment situation report from the Labor Department. That report is expected to show the key non-farm payrolls growth number at up 325,000 in August versus the July report showing a gain of 528,000 non-farm jobs.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $87.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher and hit another 20-year high today. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.25%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield hit a 15-year high today. The inverted yield curve is another clue suggesting a U.S. economic recession is imminent.

Technically, October gold futures prices hit a six-week low today. The gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,713.10 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,728.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,689.80 and then at $1,686.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

December silver futures prices hit another more-than-two-year low today. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at $18.00 and then at $18.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.40 and then at $17.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 1,030 points at 341.60 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a four-week low. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 351.65 cents and then at Wednesday’s high of 359.90 cents. First support is seen at 340.00 cents and then at 335.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver down as crude oil drops, U.S. Treasury yields rise

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, with gold hitting a five-week low and silver a more-than-two-year low. Gold prices were well up from their daily lows, however.

Eroding crude oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields at mid-week are bearish outside market elements working against the metals markets on this day. October gold futures were last down $4.10 at $1,722.70. December Comex silver futures were last down $0.307 at $17.985 an ounce.

Today’s ADP national employment report for August showed a paltry rise of 132,000 jobs, which was well below the gain of 300,000 that the marketplace expected. The marketplace showed little reaction to the report, which has a recent history of not being a good indicator of Friday morning’s more important employment situation report from the Labor Department. That report is expected to show the key non-farm payrolls growth number at up 325,000 in August versus the July report showing a gain of 528,000 non-farm jobs.

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Traders and investors remain tentative at mid-week, following the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium that saw U.S. Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, lean aggressively hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. Other major central banks of the world are also tightening their monetary policies—all in an effort to tamp down problematic price inflation, even if it slows global economic growth.

Speaking of inflation, the Euro zone got more hot readings as the August consumer price index rose 9.1%, year-on-year, which was slightly above market expectations.

The markets have not reacted much, but are paying close attention to reports that Taiwan’s military fired warning shots at drones, thought to be from mainland China, that were flying close to Taiwan.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly and trading around $90.00 a barrel. Reports are now indicating OPEC-plus will not cut its collective crude oil production. The U.S. dollar index is lower in midday U.S. trading. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 3.12%.

Technically,October gold futures prices hit a five-week low today. The gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,780.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,728.70 and then at Tuesday’s high of $1,743.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,711.70 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December silver futures prices hit a more-than-two-year low today. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $18.39 and then at this week’s high of $18.83. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.80 and then at $17.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 340 points at 351.70 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a three-week low. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 359.90 cents and then at this week’s high of 370.10 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 344.45 cents and then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver pressured amid big drop in crude oil prices

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, due in part to a drop of over $5.00 in Nymex crude oil futures prices (as of this writing). Bearish near-term technicals are also weighing on the precious metals. October gold futures were last down $12.10 at $1,728.40. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.36 at $18.31 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday. Traders and investors are still concerned about Covid lockdowns in China that are crimping the world’s second-largest economy. Last week’s hawkish speech on U.S. monetary policy by Fed Chairman Powell is also hanging over and depressing the marketplace.

The U.S. data point of the week on this unofficial last week of summer is the August U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday. The key non-farm payrolls growth number is forecast to come it up 325,000 in August versus the July report showing a gain of 528,000 non-farm jobs.The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $91.70 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit lower in midday U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 20-year high on Monday. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.08

Technically, October gold futures prices were poised to close at hit a four-week low close today. The gold futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,743.10 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,722.50 and then at $1,715.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December silver futures prices hit a six-week low today. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $18.70 and then at $19.00. Next support is seen at the July low of $18.175 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 580 points at 355.25 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a three-week low. The copper bulls have lost the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 390.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 335.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 363.55 cents and then at this week’s high of 370.10 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 354.45 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Modest gains for gold on short covering, mild safe-haven demand

Gold prices are slightly up at midday Monday, on some short covering in the futures market and some tepid safe-haven demand in cash and futures, after hitting a four-week low overnight. However, bearish elements that include negative charts, a strong U.S. dollar, rising U.S. Treasury bond yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve still have the bears firmly controlling the precious metals markets. October gold futures were last up $3.20 at $1,743.70. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.07 at $18.755 an ounce.

U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday, on follow-through selling pressure after Friday’s big losses. Risk aversion is keener early this week, in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole annual symposium that ended late last week. Fed Chairman Powell in a speech at the confab on Friday kept on script for an aggressively hawkish U.S. monetary policy, which ended some previous market talk of a more dovish “Fed pivot.” The CME’s FedWatch tool shows there is a 70% chance the Fed raises its Fed funds rate by 0.75% at its Sept. 20-21 FOMC meeting.

The U.S. data point of the week on this unofficial last week of summer is the August U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday. The key non-farm payrolls growth number is forecast to come it up 325,000 in August versus the July report showing a gain of 528,000 non-farm jobs.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher and trading around $95.80 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker in midday U.S. trading. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.121%. The 2-year U.S. T-Note is yielding 3.47%, keeping the yield curve inverted and hinting of an impending U.S. and or global economic recession.

Technically, October gold futures prices hit a four-week low early on today. The gold futures bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at $1,750.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 1,762.30. First support is seen at $1,730.00 and then at today’s low of $1,722.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $21.02. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $18.175. First resistance is seen at $19.00 and then at last week’s high of $19.385. Next support is seen at today’s low of $18.40 and then at $18.175. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 800 points at 361.80 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart but now just barely. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 335.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 370.10 cents and then at the August high of 378.35 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 356.30 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold price tumbles after Powell, $1,600 a riskbuyers step in to buy the dip, according to analysts.

Gold is ending the week down 0.8%, with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,748, down 1.32% on the day.

A pivot from the Federal Reserve is not coming, and interest rates will remain elevated for longer than markets expect, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium.

"Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time," Powell said Friday. "The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy."

Powell also did not rule out another 75-basis-point hike at the upcoming September meeting, reiterating that a lot will depend on the macro data released in the next three weeks.

"Another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting," Powell said. "Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook."

The Fed chair wants to avoid the mistakes of the 1970s, which is why he plans to act aggressively now. "The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation," Powell noted. "Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now."

There was weakness across the precious metals sector because of Powell's wording, RJO Futures senior markets strategist Peter Mooses told Kitco News Friday. "Gold was down after Powell said the Fed will continue to do what it can. It seems they will do what's necessary to fight inflation," Mooses said.

Powell's priorities are clear going into the September meeting — proceed with aggressive moves to avoid the mistakes of the past, said TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek.

"The Fed is looking at history and at what happened in the 1970s and early 1980s. Looks like they want to get restrictive and keep rates higher for longer. They don't want a situation where they le inflation get entrenched," Melek told Kitco News. "Many people thought that the Fed would relent as the economy slowed down a bit. Now it looks like it won't."

And gold responded to the promise of higher real interest rates, particularly on the front end of the curve. "The 2-year Treasuries spiked after Powell's speech, and inflationary expectations dropped slightly. When you combine high nominal rates with lower inflation expectations, real rates should move higher. Traditionally, that is quite negative for gold and propels prices lower," Melek said.

However, Powell's message is getting repetitive, which could end up helping gold, added Mooses.

"I have concerns about U.S. growth in the fourth quarter. It will be telling how the Fed adjusts," he said. "We see a lot of the same talk and patterns. Gold could straighten out in a day or two. But if equities gain strength, gold could weaken. Longer term, I'm still bullish on gold."

Gold price levels to watch

It is very likely to see gold sub-$1,700 an ounce next week, according to Melek. "There is no big price pivot to the upside for gold until we are sure the Fed will reverse course. And that's unlikely until later in 2023," he said.

There is strong support at around $1,690-$1,700. But if that is breached, "a drop to $1,600 won't be a surprise," Melek added.

Mooses is also watching the $1,690 an ounce level, expecting buyers to come in around that level. "The $1,880 level is a realistic price to go back to for gold in the next few weeks," he said.

Next week's data

With the Fed so focused on macro data, the upcoming inflation and employment reports from August will be the key market drivers to watch before the September meeting, Melek added.

"Right now, market projections for payrolls are still pretty decent for August, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 3.5% and the economy adding nearly 300,000 payrolls," he said.

Tuesday: U.S. CB consumer confidence

Wednesday: U.S. ADP nonfarm employment change

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims, ISM manufacturing PMI

Friday: U.S. nonfarm payrolls
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold/Silver – Next week's probable ranges

The day we have been waiting for has finally arrived and passed as markets put significant weight on each of Jerome Powell's words. He hit on all the "hawkish" bullet points and even discredited the softer July PCE data. The message was a blow to investors, triggering a rise in the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields which weighed in on Precious Metals. As you can see from our correlation matrix below how it is crucial to monitor rolling correlations as the 10-day Gold/Dollar correlation was -58%, and now the 5-day correlation is -97%, meaning "if the Dollar goes up, Gold is heading lower.

Rolling Correlation Matrix

Daily Gold Chart

Given the rally from the July lows, we suspected some pullback would happen before determining the next trending direction. Gold must regain $1800 and Silver $20 to keep the bullish momentum alive for the remainder of the year. The first level of support comes at $1750, $1700, and $1685. While Gold and Silver ETF holdings continue to decline, the market is less impacted by supply and demand and more focused on the U.S. Dollar, Treasury yields, economic data, and speculation on the duration of Fed rate hikes. Unfortunately for the bull camp today, Jerome Powell could not field questions after the Jackson Hole symposium. In the past three hawkish meetings, he has used the Q&A platform to help support the market by hinting that a possible "Dovish pivot" could occur depending on the data. Therefore, we believe the path of least resistance is lower for the time being for Precious Metals. If the trend flips back to bullish, we will inform our clients through our daily Tactical Insights report.

To help you identify different technical analysis formations, I went back through 20 years of my trading strategies to create a Free New "5-Step Technical Analysis Guide to Gold but can easily apply to Silver." The guide will provide you with all the Technical analysis steps to create an actionable plan used as a foundation for entering and exiting the market. You can request yours here: 5-Step Technical Analysis Guide to Gold.

Next week's probable ranges

Looking ahead into next week, we will continue to see inflationary pressures build. We believe that rising energy costs and agricultural prices will keep inflation elevated well into the September CPI report leaving the Fed with no choice but to raise another 75 bps at the next meeting. Without a Fed pivot, remain defensive. If you need additional info or want to see our daily Buy/Sell levels for all your favorite commodities, please register for a free two-week trial of our daily Tactical Insights report by clicking here. Get Tactical Insights

By Phillip Streible

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold prices back near session lows as Powell strikes hawkish tone, saying the central bank will maintain restrictive policy stance for some time

Gold prices have fallen to session lows as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell strikes an expected hawkish tone in his much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

In his speech, Powell reiterated that inflation remains the biggest threat to the economy and the central bank is committed to bringing consumer prices back down to its target of 2%.

"Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy," he said in his remarks during the central bank symposium.

The gold market continues to hold support above $1,750 an ounce; however, it is struggling to attract new bullish momentum as markets expect to see further rate hikes.

Powell noted that rising interest rates continue to slow growth; he added that those risks are outweighed by inflation.

"While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain," he said. "Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone."

Although the U.S. economy is starting to feel the effects of rising interest rates, Powell said he continues to see pockets of strength.

"While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view, our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance," he said.

Powell also recognized that while the central bank's monetary policy is slowing the economy, it is also bringing down inflation; but he added that more work needs to be done.

Although Powell has signed that the central bank will maintain its current aggressive tightening path, some analysts have said that his comments haven't provided much forward guidance for markets.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets are still evenly split over whether the central bank will raise the Fed Funds rate by 50 or 75 basis points next month.

Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com, said that Powell was not as hawkish as he expected.

"I don't see the hawkish bent. It's what I was looking for, no signal on September and a warning that the Fed won't U-turn next year. That's exactly what other Fed officials have been saying. The talk about pain and whatnot is a bit frightening, but there's a lot of nuance there," he said.

Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC, also said that Powell's speech didn't reveal anything new.

"The speech was extremely short, with nothing really new from our perspective," he said.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

The highly anticipated Jackson Hole Economic Symposium commences today

Each year the Kansas City Federal Reserve hosts one of the most important economic symposiums in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This major event is attended by the top central bankers in the United States and globally. This year’s event, the 2022 Economic Policy Symposium, "Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy," will be held August 25-27.

While the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is attended by dozens of central bankers, policymakers, academics, and economists from around the world, it will be Friday’s keynote speech by Chairman Jerome Powell that will garner the most attention.

This year’s symposium occurs at a critical time as the Federal Reserve began an aggressive tightening of its monetary policy. Beginning in March of this year the Federal Reserve raised its Fed funds rate for the first time since 2018. More so, they have raised rates at each of the last four FOMC meetings. They raised rates by 25 basis points in March, 50 basis points in May, and 75 basis points at both the June and July FOMC meetings.

The Federal Reserve also announced that it would begin to taper or reduce its asset balance sheet. However, based on information from the Statista Research Department as of July 26, 2022, the Federal Reserve had $8.89 trillion in assets. Considering that in 2007 their assets were roughly at $0.9 trillion the Federal Reserve has been extremely challenged in reducing its assets. The only noticeable reduction occurred in September 2019 when the Federal Reserve reduced its $4.5 trillion balance sheet to $3.77 trillion.

Economists and analysts are divided as to the content of Friday’s keynote speech by Chairman Powell. Some analysts suggest that market participants are bracing themselves for an extremely hawkish speech by Powell, while others are anticipating that Powell might have a more dovish demeanor suggesting that the Federal Reserve will begin to lessen its aggressive rate hikes based on recent economic reports indicating an economic contraction in multiple sectors such as new-home sales and a disappointing U.S. manufacturing sector index report.

My current assessment is that Powell will first offer assurances to the American public that they are doing everything within their power to reduce inflation. Then chairman Powell will likely use his go-to playbook and state that all decisions are data-dependent and thereby deflect any specific timelines when they will begin to reduce the amount and frequency of each rate hike.

The Federal Reserve will hold its next FOMC meeting on September 20 – 21, a week after the release of the CPI inflation index for August.

Although there is much debate and uncertainty as to the tone and demeanor of Powell’s keynote speech, Chairman Powell will continue to walk an extremely thin tightrope between the current economic contraction and the current level of inflation. The likelihood that the Federal Reserve can pull off a “soft landing” will be difficult at best and impossible at worst.

These facts have been highly supportive of gold prices over the last few weeks. Gold has risen from its low of $1678 on July 21 to its current value of $1771.80 today. Today’s gains were a combination of a softer dollar, fractional declines in U.S. Treasuries yields, and market participants actively buying the precious yellow metal.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold sees modest short covering, bargain buying

Gold prices are firmer in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, on a routine upside price correction from recent selling pressure. Short covering in the futures market and some perceived bargain buying in the cash market are featured. The U.S. dollar index is trading slightly down and near its daily low, which also gave the metals market bulls a bit of encouragement. However, rising U.S. Treasury bond yields at mid-week has limited buying interest in the metals. October gold futures were last up $4.90 at $1,756.30. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.021 at $19.005 an ounce.

U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday. The marketplace is awaiting the late-week Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium that begins Thursday and includes a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday morning. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets. Markets are expecting Powell to lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy and on the Fed’s fight against inflation.

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The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $93.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower at midday, after hitting a 20-year high on Tuesday. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.109%. Bond yields have been on the rise recently.

Technically, October gold futures bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,759.70 and then at 1,775.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,745.50 and then at this week’s low of $1,730.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $20.87. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $18.01. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $19.155 and then at $19.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $18.605 and then at $18.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 460 points at 364.95 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 335.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 373.15 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 360.40 cents and then at last week’s low of 354.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver rebound as USDX backs off, crude oil rallies

Gold and silver prices are higher in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, on short covering in the futures markets and bargain hunting in the cash markets, following recent selling pressure. The key "outside markets" are also in a bullish daily posture for the metals today, as the U.S. dollar index backed off a bit and crude oil prices were solidly higher. October gold futures were last up $13.80 at $1,752.40. September Comex silver were last up $0.147 at $19.03 an ounce.

U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Traders and investors early this week are concerned about a still-aggressive Federal Reserve that is fighting problematic price inflation by raising U.S. interest rates at a rapid pace–even if it causes a U.S. economic recession. A Wall Street Journal news headline read: "Wall Street swings from greed to fear as the Fed's message sinks in." The marketplace is awaiting the late-week Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, including a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday morning. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets.

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The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher and trading around $93.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a nearly 20-year high in early U.S. trading. The surging greenback is denting bullish enthusiasm in many raw commodity markets, as they are priced in U.S. dollars on the world market. The appreciating greenback is making those commodities more expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.0%.

Technically, October gold futures bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,757.60 and then at 1,775.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,733.80 and then at this week's low of $1,730.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $20.87. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $18.01. First resistance is seen at last Friday's high of $19.48 and then at $20.00. Next support is seen at this week's low of $18.605 and then at $18.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 380 points at 368.95 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a seven-week high today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 335.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 373.15 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 360.40 cents and then at last week's low of 354.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley