Gold declines sharply as higher-than-expected CPI leads to dollar strength
 

Gold declines sharply as higher-than-expected CPI leads to dollar strength teaser image

Today the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index report for January.

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment”.

The index for shelter increased by 0.6% in January, which contributed the largest spike in inflationary pressures, contributing approximately two-thirds of the monthly all items increase. Food was also troublesome, increasing 0.4% last month. The energy index fell by 0.9% over the month, largely due to a decline in gasoline costs.

The numbers revealed that inflationary pressures last month came in 1/10 of a point more than economists’ expectations. A higher-than-expected rise in inflation last month could easily change the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. More so, it raises a small, but real possibility that the Federal Reserve might raise rates before pivoting to rate cuts. However, for that to happen, inflation would have to come in hotter than expected in February.

Multiple Fed officials, including Chairman Powell have made it clear that they need to see more evidence that inflation is abating before making a final decision on the timing to initiate the Fed’s first rate cut. During his post-FOMC meeting press conference, Chairman Powell was asked if inflation has declined enough to initiate the first rate cut to which he answered, “We will need to see continuing evidence to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal.”

Powell also remarked that a rate cut in March would be highly unlikely and today’s inflationary numbers reinforce that decision making the most likely first rate cut to possibly occur in May, but more likely in June. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is only an 8.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in March, and a 32.3% probability of a rate cut in May. That changes in June with a 52.7% probability that the Fed will have cut rates by ¼%, an 18.9% probability of ½% rate cut, and a 1.3% probability of a ¾% rate cut by the conclusion of the June FOMC meeting.

Following the release of today’s CPI report U.S. Treasury yields rose. The yield on 10-year treasury notes rose by 10 basis points to its current yield of 4.273%. The yield on 30-year bonds rose by seven basis points currently yielding 4.437%.

Higher yields on treasury debt moved the dollar substantially higher. The dollar opened at 104.156 and traded to a high of 105.001, and as of 4:45 PM ET, the dollar index is currently trading at 104.911 after factoring in today’s gain of 0.72%.

Gold sold off sharply based upon bearish market sentiment, resulting in traders actively selling, coupled with dollar strength. Gold futures basis the most active April contract declined by 1.64% taking gold $33.50 lower. While selling pressure resulted in a greater price decline than dollar strength, both were prominent factors in today’s $33 price decline.

Wishing you as always good trading

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold pressured by bearish outside markets Monday

Gold prices are lower and silver prices modestly up in midday U.S. trading Monday. Gold is feeling the pressure from bearish daily outside markets that include a firmer U.S. dollar index and a slight up-tick in U.S. Treasury yields. The U.S. stock indexes today hit record highs again, which is also a negative for the safe-haven gold and silver markets. April gold was last down $12.20 at $2,026.40. March silver was last up $0.136 at $22.735.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. China is celebrating its Lunar New Year holiday this week. Many China markets are closed much of this week for the annual holiday. In China it is the year of the Dragon. Broker SP Angel reports in a morning email dispatch that jewelers in China are reported to have stocked up on dragon-themed gold jewelry, with gold jewelry sales expected to rise 30% this year. “The ‘dragon baby’ rush could drive gold prices to new highs if the nation decided to invest in this direction,” said the broker. “ Government officials are hoping the influence of year of the dragon, which is revered for its power, strength, good luck and wisdom, will encourage couples to raise the birth rate. The last year of the dragon in China saw a 38% rise in new births.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.195%.

Traders are awaiting Tuesday’s report on the U.S. consumer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 2.9%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 3.4% in the December report.

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a two-week low today. The bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,041.80 and then at $2,050.00. First support is seen at the January low of $2,023.30 and then at the December low of $2,007.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $23.15 and then at $23.445. Next

support is seen at today’s low of $22.575 and then at last week’s low of $22.195. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 190 points at 370.05 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering after hitting a seven-week low Friday. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 390.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 355.75 cents. First resistance is seen at 376.30 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 365.50 cents and then at 362.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver down as USDX sharply up, Treasury yield rise

Kitco News

The Leading News Source in Precious Metals

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

Gold, silver down as USDX sharply up, Treasury yield rise teaser image

(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, pressured by strong gains in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. February gold was last down $15.60 at $2,035.90. March silver was last down $0.214 at $23.115.

U.S. stock index futures are lower at midday. As U.S. traders get back from a long holiday weekend (U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday.) they found elevated risk aversion in the marketplace following weekend Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, and U.S. and U.K. retaliatory air strikes in Yemen. That helped to push the U.S. dollar index sharply higher today.

In other news, China’s central bank leaving its monetary policy unchanged disappointed those looking for more stimulus amid recent downbeat economic data from the world’s second-largest economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher and hitting a four-week high. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $72.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.043%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at $2,050.00 and then at today’s high of $2,062.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,034.60 and then at $2,025.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.895. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $22.26. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $23.50 and then at last week’s high of $23.72. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at last week’s low of $22.63. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 320 points at 377.25 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 390.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid

technical support at 365.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 384.05 cents and then at 388.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 373.50 cents and then at the December low of 372.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

Try out my “Markets Front Burner” email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, “When China sneezes…” Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it’s free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

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Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Hedge funds are selling their gold, but they are not bearish

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Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

Hedge funds are selling their gold, but they are not bearish teaser image

Volatility surrounding U.S. interest rates is taking its toll on gold prices as hedge funds liquidated their bullish bets but remain hesitant to make any significant bearish bets, according to the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Although gold prices have managed to hold solid support above $2,000 an ounce, some analysts note that shifting momentum in the marketplace could weigh on prices in the near term.

In an interview with Kitco News, Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said that he sees the price action in the precious metal as a “tossup” as the market lacks a catalyst to drive prices higher.

The CFTC's disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending Jan. 6 showed money managers decreased their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 20,051 contracts to 134,333. At the same time, short positions increased by only 639 contracts to 45,874.

The latest selling pressure has pushed gold’s net length to a two-month low. The precious metal is net long by 88,459 contracts. However, the market has been reasonably stable as prices have traded in a range between $2,000 and $2,050 an ounce.

Some analysts note that gold is consolidating as the market has no clear guidance regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Markets see a more than 70% chance of a rate cut in March; however, some central bankers have pushed back on that timing, even as they prepare for eventual easing.

Commodity analysts at TD Securities noted that economic data has not provided any clear indication and is adding to the market volatility and uncertainty.

“Investors reduced length as Fed funds futures sold off and doubts emerged surrounding the early timing and magnitude of the pending policy rate reductions. Strong labor markets are associated with continued inflation pressures. And with core CPI much above the two percent target, the market concluded that a very early Fed easing is not in the cards,” the analysts said in a note Friday. “But with the most recent production prices coming in at below expectations, the market is once again going long, as it anticipates an early end to restrictive policy. It is likely that there will be data-driven volatility as gold trends to our $2,200/oz Q2 target.”

Commodity analysts noted that although $4.1 billion flowed out of the gold market last week, the selling pressure has firmly pushed the market outside of overbought territory.

Although the gold market appears to be running out of steam, waiting for the Federal Reserve’s long-expected pivot, analysts note that investors are reluctant to take any major short position in the precious metal.

Some analysts note that renewed chaos in the Middle East as U.S. and U.K. militaries U.S. and UK militaries bomb Houthi militants in Yemen. The U.S. continued its bombardment through the weekend.

Some analysts note that geopolitical safe-haven demand should continue to support gold prices above $2,000 an ounce.

While investors are reluctant to short gold, there is more give and take in the silver market, as investors increase their bearish bets while liquidating their long positions.

The disaggregated report showed that money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex silver futures fell by 6,032 contracts to 32,392. At the same time, short positions rose by 1,677 contracts to 24,044.

Silver’s net length now stands at 8,348 contracts, down sharply from the previous week, falling to a two-month low.

Along with gold, silver is also struggling due to market volatility surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy; however, analysts also note that silver is also struggling as concerns over the global economy continue to grow.

During the survey period, silver prices traded in a fairly tight range between $23.00 and $23.50 an ounce.

Many commodity analysts have said that a potential global recession could weaken silver’s industrial demand, which has been a significant support for prices.

At the same time, analysts also see limited downside as the green energy transition and unprecedented demand for solar energy will remain a solid pillar of strength for silver, even in the face of a recession.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold will be sensitive to USD strength, $ 2,000 might not hold – HSBC

Kitco News

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Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

Gold will be sensitive to USD strength, $ 2,000 might not hold – HSBC teaser image

(Kitco News) – Weakness in the U.S. dollar helped to propel gold prices to record highs in the final month of 2023. While gold remains above $2,000 an ounce, currency analysts at HSBC are warning investors that this level might not hold in the new year.

Although gold has managed to hold its own in the first two weeks of 2024, HSBC noted that its precious metals team sees the market as overstretched and is expected to decline as higher prices take their toll on physical demand, weighing on jewelry and bullion sales.

At the same time, the bank’s currency analysts expect to see renewed momentum in the U.S. dollar, which will also weigh on prices. The biggest driver for the greenback remains the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy.

The currency analysts said markets could be too aggressive in pricing in expected rate cuts this year. If the market proves to be too optimistic on easing, it could provide new bullish momentum for the U.S. dollar.

“Market expectations of Fed rate cuts amounting to 138bp are well above what the Fed’s dot plot implies, as well as our economists’ forecast for 75bp worth of cuts,” the analysts said. “Should the scale of these anticipated cuts not fully materialize, then the price of gold may backtrack.”

At the same time, HSBC analysts note that a few rate cuts this year will also support higher real interest rates, creating another headwind for the precious metal.

“Gold is historically sensitive to US real rates, and while there has been a significant disconnect in this relationship, our precious metals analyst thinks that positive real rates could be a headwind for gold this year,” HSBC said in the report.

So far, markets haven’t given up on the idea that the Federal Reserve will start to cut rates in March, even as inflation pressures remain stubbornly elevated. HSBC’s note was published ahead of December’s Consumer Price Index, which showed core consumer prices in the U.S. rising 3.9% in the last 12 months, coming in hotter than expected.

Despite stubborn inflation, markets still see a more than 68% chance of a rate cut at the March meeting.

While gold could be vulnerable to some selling pressure in the next few months, HSBC does see a limit to the downside.

“A number of bedrock factors will sustain the price of gold at what would still be a historically high level,” HSBC said. “For example, geopolitical and trade risks are elevated and may stay high in 2024, as 75 nations hold elections, lending underlying support to gold prices. And central bank demand remains historically strong, triggered by geopolitical risks and portfolio diversification needs, but may not be fully sustained at price levels above $2,000 per ounce.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver tread water ahead of key U.S. inflation data

Kitco News

The Leading News Source in Precious Metals

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

Gold, silver tread water ahead of key U.S. inflation data teaser image

(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are not trading too far from unchanged levels on the day in midday dealings Wednesday. Traders are awaiting the U.S. data points of the week: the December consumer price index report on Thursday and the December producer price index report on Friday. The CPI report is seen up 3.3%, year-on-year versus a rise of 3.1% in the November report. February gold was last down $1.80 at $2,031.00 and March silver was last down $0.056 at $23.04.

The Federal Reserve has been pleased with cooling U.S. inflation—to the point of hinting of no more interest rate increases and possibly interest rate cuts in 2024. The Fed would like to see annual U.S. inflation rates of around 2%.

Most of the marketplace expects the CPI and PPI numbers late this week to be tame on inflation. If the numbers are printed as expected look for the stock, financial and commodity markets to view that as friendly, as traders would reckon that would allow the Fed to ease its monetary policy sooner—meaning better demand for goods and services, and better consumer confidence. It’s my bias, too, that this week’s U.S. inflation numbers will not contain markets-moving surprises. There is presently an outlier group of markets watchers that believes deflationary price pressures could come into play later this year.

Importantly, inflation reports in the coming few months may be more worrisome for the marketplace and for central bankers. The heightened Middle East tensions include Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea. The Red Sea is one of the world’s major shipping routes. Some shippers have opted to avoid the Red Sea altogether and instead traverse the much longer route all the way around the African continent. Of course, that means longer supply chain delivery times and higher shipping costs. Reads a Dow Jones Newswires headline today: “Importers face surging shipping costs, delays as Red Sea diversions pile up.”

The shipping delays and higher costs could push up producer price inflation in the coming months, and in turn raise costs to the consumer. You can bet the world’s central bankers are watching this situation closely.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are slightly up near midday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $72.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.019%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,046.20 and then at this week’s high of $2,053.30. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,022.70 and then at $2,015.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $22.26. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $23.565 and then at $23.715. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $22.88 and then at the December low of $22.785. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 30 points at 375.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a three-week low. Prices also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The copper bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy, 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 397.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 365.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 379.30 cents and then at this week’s high of 384.05 cents. First support is seen at the December low of 372.90 cents and then at 370.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

Try out my “Markets Front Burner” email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, “When China sneezes…” Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it’s free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

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Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold up a bit on still-friendly charts

Kitco News

The Leading News Source in Precious Metals

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

Gold up a bit on still-friendly charts teaser image

(Gold prices are a bit higher and silver a bit weaker in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Technical-based buying is featured in gold as the charts still firmly favor the bulls. Higher crude oil prices are also bullish for the metals today. However, gains in the metals are being limited by a firmer U.S. dollar index and a slight up-tick in U.S. Treasury yields on this day. February gold was last up $3.50 at $2,036.90. March silver was last down $0.12 at $23.19.

U.S. stock index futures are mixed at midday.

In overnight news, reports said China’s central bank has indicated it may lower its reserve requirement ratio to boost lending and support economic growth, the head of the central bank’s monetary policy department told a local news agency. The PBOC official’s remark does not suggest an imminent cut but may indicate such action is on the table in the coming months, Bloomberg reported. Similar comments were made last July before the central bank reduced the reserve requirement ratio for major banks in September of last year. The metals markets may also be getting some support from this news, which could promote better consumer and commercial demand for metals from China in the coming months.

The U.S. data points of the week will be the December consumer price index report on Thursday and the December producer price index report on Friday. U.S. inflation has cooled in recent months, which has allowed the Federal Reserve to back off on its tighter monetary policy. The CPI report is seen up 3.3%, year-on-year versus a rise of 3.1% in the November report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index moderately higher. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $72.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.011%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,053.30 and then at last Friday’s high of $2,071.10. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,022.70 and then at $2,015.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $22.26. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $23.565 and then at $23.715. Next support is seen $23.00 and then at the December low of $22.785. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 320 points at 377.80 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a three-week low. Prices also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The copper bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy, 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 397.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 365.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 384.05 cents and then at 386.60 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 377.40 cents and then at 372.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Try out my “Markets Front Burner” email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, “When China sneezes…” Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it’s free! Sign up tomy new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold weaker as crude oil price slumps

Kitco News

The Leading News Source in Precious Metals

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

Gold weaker as crude oil price slumps teaser image

(Kitco News) – Gold prices are down in midday U.S. trading Monday but well up from their session lows. The yellow metal hit a three-week low early on today. Amid a lack of major fresh, fundamental news to start the trading week, precious metals traders are focusing on the outside markets, and raw commodity sector leader crude sees its price sharply down. February gold was last down $10.90 at $2,038.70. March silver was last up $0.065 at $23.385.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are mixed at midday.

In weekend news, U.S. congressional leaders have agreed upon a bipartisan federal budget plan for the next year. The House and Senate now have about two weeks to pass the measure, which may not be easy.
 

The U.S. data points of the week will be the December consumer price index report on Thursday and the December producer price index report on Friday. U.S. inflation has cooled in recent months, which has allowed the Federal Reserve to back off on its tighter monetary policy. The CPI report is seen up 3.3%, year-on-year versus a rise of 3.1% in the November report.
 

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are strongly lower and trading around $70.25 a barrel. Reports said Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its oil to some of its customers, in a signal of a weaker demand outlook. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.974%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit. Prices are still in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,053.30 and then at last Friday’s high of $2,071.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,022.70 and then at $2,015.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $22.26. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $23.715 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen $23.00 and then at the December low of $22.785. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 130 points at 381.90 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a three-week low early on. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Prices are still in a choppy, 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 404.45 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 372.90 cents. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 386.60 cents and then at last week’s high of 391.20 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 378.95 cents and then at 372.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Try out my “Markets Front Burner” email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, “When China sneezes…” Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it’s free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold stuck around $2,050 as markets look for guidance on Fed cuts next week

Kitco News

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Gold stuck around $2,050 as markets look for guidance on Fed cuts next week teaser image

According to many analysts, the gold market is off to a decent start after the first trading week of 2024 even as the price lost some ground as it consolidated at elevated levels between $2,000 and $2,050 an ounce.

February gold futures are ending the week around $2,050 an ounce, down 1% from last week.

According to some analysts, the market remains caught in a tug-of-war as investors try to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s next move. Markets are currently pricing in a 68% chance of the first rate cut at the March monetary policy meeting.

However, some economists have said that after December’s employment numbers, it is unlikely that the U.S. central bank will be ready to cut rates that early in the new year. The latest employment data shows 216,000 jobs were created last month and wages grew by 0.4%.

“The jobs report lends credence to the view that the Fed is likely to continue pushing back against the early rate cuts being priced in by the market until the signal becomes clearer,” said fixed income analysts at TD Securities. “With that said, we do expect inflation to continue softening over the next few reports, which should keep the door open for rate cuts in Q2.”

At the same time, Philip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that rate cut expectations remain elevated because some analysts believe the latest jobs report shows cracks in the labor market are starting to appear. He noted that a high number of government jobs in the December report appear to be skewing the data.

Streible added that with a March rate cut on the table, gold should be well supported above $2,000 an ounce; however, he added that he doesn’t know if there is enough momentum to push prices solidly above $2,050 an ounce.

“Right now is a coin flip and that will keep gold in this consolidation range,” he said.

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, said that the price action this week indicates that gold is capped at $2,050 in the near-term; however, he added that the gold bears will find a difficult path on the downside as the Federal Reserve is still expected to lower interest rates this year.

“Think this resistance will hold long enough to give a dip… but that may take a month or two,” Stanley said. “When the Fed does formally pivot this thing can take off. But real rates will need to get higher first before they can declare a ‘W’ on inflation, and with an election year I think they'd want to have that pivot a little closer to November. Ideally [gold] should push below 2k and wash out some longs first. Then, more money on the sidelines could further propel higher.”

Although markets are back to a full five-day week next week, investors are expected to continue to digest December’s employment numbers. The main highlight comes late next week with December’s Consumer Price Index report. According to some economists, inflation data could solidify the Federal Reserve’s move in March.

Some economists have pointed out that although consumer prices have dropped from their 2022 highs, the Federal Reserve still has work to do to bring inflation down to its target of 2%.

The expectations are that headline inflation will remain around 3%; however, core inflation is expected to remain around 4%, double the central bank’s target.
 

Economic data for next week:

Thursday: US CPI, weekly jobless claims

Friday: U.S. PPI
 

Kitco Media

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