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Will jobs and inflation data confirm the Fed’s stance on two more rate hikes? This is what gold price is watching

Will jobs and inflation data confirm the Fed's stance on two more rate hikes? This is what gold price is watching

Gold is seeing its worst week since February as the Federal Reserve's outlook of two more rate hikes weighs on the precious metal. But some analysts don't see the macro picture supporting that hawkish view.

The gold market is down around $40 on the week, with August Comex gold futures last trading at $1,931.30 an ounce.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remained fully committed to two more rate hikes during his testimonies before the U.S. Congress this week. And the gold space started to price out potential rate cuts at the end of this year.

Other central banks also joined Powell's hawkish stance. The Bank of England surprised by raising its main interest rate to 5% from 4.5% Thursday. Norway's central bank hiked by 50 basis points. And the Swiss National Bank raised rates to 1.75% from 1.5%.

Analysts pointed out that this renewed global hawkish stance could make the U.S. dollar a more attractive safe haven asset than gold.

"Gold prices have come under pressure following the June central bank decisions," said Standard Chartered precious metals analyst Suki Cooper. "The market is now expecting additional hikes, and macro headwinds have arisen as the USD has also strengthened again."

Gold's technical positioning is not looking good

On top of the macro picture, gold's technical position is not looking great after prices fell below their 100-day moving average of around $1,940 an ounce.

"Gold falling below its 100-day moving average is a signal that we still have lower to go," Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News. "Aside from macro drivers pushing momentum against gold, the technicals are deteriorating."

The new resistance level is $1,940 an ounce, and support is at $1,900 and then $1,880, Millman added.

A lot of long positions also got out as rate cuts now seem off the table, said Phoenix Futures and Options LLC president Kevin Grady. "Gold is waiting to see the language from the Fed that they will back off. That is when bulls will come in," Grady told Kitco News.

ETF outflows have accelerated in June, and tactical positioning scaled back, Cooper pointed out.

"While we continue to believe there is an appetite for gold, price action is typically less supportive during a seasonally slow period for consumption," she said. "Net fund length was at its lowest – with the deepest net short positioning since 2018 – in September 2022; positioning is still relatively elevated compared to nine months ago, but overall investor interest is at its lowest since 2018."

This highlights a shift in sentiment, with summer known to be a seasonally slower period for demand, according to analysts.

Some view gold as close to a bottom at current levels. "The $1,900 to the downside is an important level to watch," TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali told Kitco News.

 

Can the Fed's hawkish view last?

In the next few weeks, the gold market will carefully monitor whether the macro data, especially labor and inflation reports, support the Fed's view of two more rate hikes.

"We think the data won't corroborate Fed's expectations to hike rates further," Ghali said Friday. "We see a good chance that the Fed concluded the hiking cycle last May."

The data to pay close attention to include jobless claims and employment reports, he added. "We expect a recession in the fourth quarter. And gold can rally towards $2,100 by early next year," Ghali noted.

Once the data starts to deteriorate, the market will price in a higher likelihood of cuts over the next 12 months. And since gold is a forward-looking financial asset, new investor flows will come in, supporting higher prices, the analyst explained.

It is reasonable to expect a pause until further notice, with options of hiking or cutting both on the table depending on the economic data, Millman added. Two more rate hikes are not "etched in stone like Powell has us believe," he said.

Also, it is historically uncommon for the Fed to raise rates after a pause. "After a pause, there has always been a cut. Even when Paul Volcker was the head of the Fed," Millman said.

 

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. durable goods orders, CB consumer confidence, new home sales,

Thursday: U.S. GDP Q1, jobless claims, pending home sales

Friday: U.S. PCE price index

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

If you think gold had a brutal selloff this week just look at a silver chart

If you think gold had a brutal selloff this week, just look at a silver chart

Gold prices this week had such a strong decline that they traded to a low not witnessed since the first week of March, declining by approximately $39 per ounce. Gold futures basis most active August contract opened at approximately $1969 on Tuesday and as of 5:25 PM EDT is fixed at $1930.30. This week’s price decline resulted in gold losing 1.96%.

The key factors that exerted extreme bearish pressure on both gold and silver were hawkish statements by the Federal Reserve, rate hikes by multiple central banks in Europe, and dollar strength.pic

Chairman Powell testified to the House and Senate’s Banking Committee this week and underscored the need for more rate hikes this year. Jerome Powell said that the majority of Federal Reserve officials believed that it was appropriate to continue to raise rates to address inflation.

On Wednesday, speaking before Congress he said that it was a “pretty good guess” that the central bank would hike rates twice more this year. Powell underscored the rationale for more rate hikes saying, “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go”.

This week the Bank of England raised its benchmark rate to 5%, the 13th straight increase by the BOE. Officials at the BOE warned that “further hikes might be needed”. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in a vote of seven to two voted in favor of a rate hike to reduce their country's Inflation. The BOE was not alone in its action with central banks in Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey also enacting rate hikes to slow their respective countries' inflationary pressures.

These factors also sparked a deep decline in silver resulting in a larger percentage decline than gold. Silver futures basis the most active July contract opened at approximately $24.25 on Tuesday and as of 5:25 PM is fixed at $22.45. The weekly price decline of $1.85 resulted in a percentage decrease of 7.42%. Silver’s selloff on a percentage basis was over 3 times greater than gold’s decline.

Gary S. Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold breaks below recent lows as central banks worldwide raise rates

Gold breaks below recent lows as central banks worldwide raise rates

The Federal Reserve’s drumbeat signaling more rate hikes is loud enough to be heard on the other side of the world. In his second day of testimony to the House and Senate Chairman Powell is reiterating his message that a “strong majority” of Federal Reserve officials are strongly committed to raising rates twice for a total of 50 basis points by the end of the year. This would take the Fed’s benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 5 ½% to 5 ¾%.

Today’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee marks the third time Chairman Powell has underscored the Federal Reserve’s plan to implement two more rate hikes before the end of the year. He delivered this message during his press conference last week, to the House yesterday, and to the Senate today. When asked for a timeline when the Fed will raise rates again Powell responded by saying, at a “careful pace”.

He did however hedge this statement by adding that any further rate hike decisions will depend on how the economic data develops.

The resolute hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has been heard overseas with multiple central banks following suit and raising their benchmark interest rates. The Bank of England raise its benchmark rate to 5%, the 13th straight increase by the BOE. Officials at the BOE warned that “further hikes might be needed”.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in a vote of seven to two voted in favor of a rate hike. Inflation is running hotter in many parts of Europe than in the United States. A report on Wednesday revealed that the CPI in the U.K. came in above expectations. Economists were expecting the headline inflation (CPI) to ease to 8.4%. Wednesday's report revealed that inflation had come in hotter than expected at 8.7%.

The BOE was not alone in its action with central banks in Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey also enacted rate hikes to slow their respective countries' inflationary pressures.

The combination of Chairman Powell’s testimony and multiple central banks in Europe raising rates resulted in a strong decline in gold today. Gold futures traded to a low of $1922. As of 5:11 PM EDT, the most active August contract of gold futures is currently fixed at $1923.90 which is a decline of 1.08% or $21.

The strong decline of gold prices from its high of $2083 in May to current pricing can be directly tied to strong rate hikes in central banks worldwide with the Federal Reserve's strong restrictive monetary policy leading the way. That being said there is mild technical support for gold at $1906 and strong technical support at $1850 per ounce.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Powell’s testimony helps take gold futures to the lowest value since March 17th

Powell's testimony helps take gold futures to the lowest value since March 17th

Chairman Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee today. This is part of his semiannual report which will conclude tomorrow when he appears before the Senate Banking Committee. His opening statement was close to a word-for-word repeat of his opening statement at last week’s press conference. Most importantly, the chairman did little to convey any new information regarding upcoming rate hikes and inflation that was not said last week.

The key takeaway from last week’s press conference and today’s testimony was twofold. First, he and other Fed officials agree that there should be further interest rate hikes. Secondly, he expects rates to remain elevated throughout the remainder of this year.

Speaking before Congress he said that it was a “pretty good guess” that the central bank would hike rates twice more this year. Powell underscored the rationale for more rate hikes saying, “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go”.

Although the probability of a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting has declined slightly the CME’s FedWatch tool sees a 71.9% probability of ¼% rate hike at next month’s meeting.

A weaker U.S. dollar was not enough to support any increase in gold pricing today, rather gold futures traded to the lowest value since March 17. Gold futures traded to a low today of $1929.30. As of 5:37 PM EDT, the most active August contract is currently fixed at $1943.50 after factoring in a decline of $4.20 or 0.22%. The dollar lost 0.42% in value today taking the index to 101.695.

A similar decline occurred in the pricing of spot gold. According to the Kitco gold Index (KGX), dollar weakness added $8.10 of value and concurrently selling pressure resulted in a decline of $12. Spot gold is currently fixed at $1932.60 after factoring in today’s decline of $3.90.

Silver declined by 2.3% or $0.53 which took the most active July contract to $22.70. Just as silver has had a larger percentage gain when both gold and silver traded to higher pricing it has had a steeper percentage decline during price corrections.

Gary S. Wagner

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold silver sink as USDX rallies crude dips Powell on deck

Gold, silver sink as USDX rallies, crude dips; Powell on deck

Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, feeling the pressure of a higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices on this day. August gold was last down $23.40 at $1,947.90 and July silver was down $0.891 at $23.235.

The marketplace awaits Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest thoughts. He will provide his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Powell is widely expected to repeat comments from his post-Fed meeting press conference, which had a hint of caution but still opened the door to higher rates down the road. The marketplace will be closely watching the testimony for any fresh clues on the timing of the rate increases. Should Powell strike a hawkish note, this could boost the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. But if he is more downbeat and fails to provide fresh clues, this may weaken the greenback and lower yields.

Part of the U.S. dollar’s strength today can be attributed to a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. housing market report showing May housing starts up 21.7% and building permits up 5.2%.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes are not far below last week’s 10-month highs.

In overnight news, China again slightly eased its monetary policy by lowering two key lending rates by 10 basis points. The rate reductions were deemed by China watchers as less than expected.

  Gold price is stuck in neutral, but that is its strength now

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $70.75 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.711%.

Technically, the gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bears have re-established a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,971.80 and then at $1,987.80. First support is seen at the June low of $1,936.10 and then at $1,925.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The silver bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage amid sideways and choppy trading. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing July futures prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $24.62. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at $23.50 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at the May low of $22.785. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price is stuck in neutral but that is its strength now

Gold price is stuck in neutral, but that is its strength now

Although gold is struggling to attract bullish momentum, analysts note that its strength now relies on how much support is in the marketplace, even as speculative interest starts to drop.

In its latest trade data, Commodity Futures Trading Commission noted that speculative interest in the gold market dropped to its lowest level in three months as investors ditched their bullish bets and increased their bearish positioning.

The CFTC's disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 13 showed money managers dropped their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 10,473 contracts to 110,512. At the same time, short positions rose by 8,312 contracts to 35,869.

The gold market is now net long by 74,643 contracts, dropping to its lowest point since March 14. At the same time, the precious metal saw its biggest drop in gross bullish positioning since early February. During the survey period, gold prices traded in a tight range, with support around $1,950 and resistance around $1,980 an ounce

The decline in speculative positioning came after weeks of a relatively stable trading environment. According to some analysts, the shift in the gold market was not surprising as investors and hedge funds squared their positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.

Last week the Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged but maintained its hawkish bias and signaled that it sees potentially two more rate hikes this year. The hawkish pause caused gold prices to drop to a three-month low, testing support at $1,930.

However, the gold market did not stay down for very long, as it was back in its previous $30 trading range before the end of the week. Analysts have noted that the price action shows there is still plenty of interest in gold; however, investors are being more tactical as they build a position.

"We have established that there is still a strong bid in the gold market," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a recent interview with Kitco News. "But we just don't have a trigger for a bigger rally to $2,000. I think we need to get back above $1,985ish before some bullish conviction returns to gold."

Commodity analysts at TD Securities said that gold remains supported as the market is starting to doubt the Federal Reserve's optimistic outlook on rate hikes. The analysts said that it's more likely the central bank's next move will be to cut rates.

"While gold initially traded lower, the market is looking past the Fed messaging and the yellow metal was little changed after the rate decision. But since the spread of members' dots is so wide, ranging from 3.625% – 5.875% for next year, the median estimate is not all that relevant as far as we are concerned and future rate decisions will very much be driven by inflation and economic data," the analysts said. "We suspect that data and inflation will weaken in the not-too-distant future, with the Fed likely lowering rates before hitting its inflation target. As such, we expect gold to do quite well in the months ahead.

In a comment on Twitter, Fred Hickey, creator of the High-Tech Strategist investment newsletter, noted that gold's net positioning has dropped 20% from the previous week; however, gold prices were virtually unchanged.

He added that the selling pressure comes at the start of gold's seasonal weak period, which he noted remains the perfect buying opportunity.

"Bears/computers tried to smash gold following Wed. FOMC, & extremely "hawkish" commentary & build-in of 2 more rate hikes, but then gold put in an impressive reversal to upside (even surprised me). Now mid-June – start of seasonally best time to buy gold (mid-June to early-July).

While investors are reluctant to take a bullish position in gold, hedge funds are starting to test the waters in the silver market for the second consecutive week.

The disaggregated report showed that money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex silver futures rose by 1,442 contracts to 38,968. At the same time, short positions fell by 1,560 contracts to 25,971.

  The green hydrogen economy is real, but it might not define platinum's role in the global green energy transition

Silver's net length now stands at 12,997 contracts, up 30% from the previous week. During the survey period, silver prices continued to trade on either side of $24 an ounce.

According to some analysts, silver is outperforming gold in the near term as optimism picks up regarding the global economy. Last week the Federal Reserve increased its forecast for 2023 Gross Domestic Product; it now sees the economy growing 1% this year, up from the previous forecast of 0.4%.

Optimism over the global economy can be seen in base metals as copper sees a surge in short covering, pushing to a one-month high.

Copper's disaggregated report showed money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex high-grade copper futures rose by 5,653 contracts to 48,023. At the same time, short positions fell by 12,224 contracts to 43,023.

After a month stuck in a net short position, the global copper market is now back in bullish territory with a speculative net long of 5,600 contracts.

During the survey period, copper prices pushed back above $3.80 per pound.

Although copper has seen a significant bounce off last month's lows, analysts at TD Securities said that the rally could be running out of momentum.

"We see risks that the rally in the red metal may now be running on fumes. After all, we see few risks of subsequent CTA buying activity until prices break the $8900/t mark, whereas discretionary traders are running out of dry-powder for short-covering," the analysts said. "Chinese officials appear to have little appetite for a large-scale stimulus package, suggesting that participants could be in for an unpleasant surprise. In turn, without a game-changing stimulus package announcement, the set-up for a consolidation in copper markets is firming."

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold’s new price base keeps record highs within reach says VanEck

Gold's new price base keeps record highs within reach, says VanEck

Gold has formed a new base at the $1,900 an ounce level, and if that continues to hold, record highs  will be within reach, according to VanEck's latest analysis.

Gold has just spent the most time above $1,900 an ounce than ever before, forming a new base and averaging $1,933 per ounce year to date, said VanEck's deputy portfolio manager Imaru Casanova.

"Gold is showing resilience despite a strong stock market and recent U.S. dollar strength," Casanova wrote in a report Thursday. "Gold bullion exchanged traded products outflows have subsided this year, with net inflows, albeit small, resulting in a 0.38% increase in holdings year to date.

The all-time highs are within reach for gold as the Federal Reserve halts its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades.

"The $2,075 per ounce all-time high seems well within reach, in our view," Casanova said. "We see a macro backdrop that continues to be supportive of gold in the longer term."

As the Fed kept rates unchanged in a range of 5% to 5.25% following ten consecutive increases, central bank Chair Jerome Powell confirmed Wednesday that the median dot plot saw at least two more 25-bps rate hikes this year. But the market remained unconvinced, pricing in only one rate hike in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool

May was a promising month for gold as the metal attempted to test record highs, but market optimism ended up weighing on sentiment. Since then, gold has been resilient, holding above $1,950 an ounce. At the time of writing, August Comex gold futures were trading at $1,970.10, flat on the day.

"Expectations that this past rate hike may be the last one in this tightening cycle supported gold in early May," Casanova wrote. "However, through most of the month, the U.S. dollar gained and gold fell as the narrative shifted to a more hawkish view and the probability of further rate hikes in 2023 increased."

In the meantime, miners significantly underperformed gold last month, with the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) and the MVIS Global Juniors Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) down 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively.

"The magnitude of the underperformance is a bit surprising to us … May was a relatively good month for gold equities on the news front, with companies reporting first-quarter results that were, generally, better than expected," the report said. "We view this reaction as overdone and further contributing to the current valuation gap between gold and gold equities."

The sector's overall health looks solid, with gold producers remaining committed to disciplined capital allocation, growth, shareholder returns, profitability, and healthy balance sheets, the report said.

"They are also responsible operators, running sustainable businesses aiming to deliver benefits to all stakeholders while carefully managing the impact on the environment," Casanova wrote. "A re-rating of the gold mining equities from historically low valuations at present is well supported by the industry's strong fundamentals."

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

A big move in gold price is coming after weeks of neutral stance – analysts

A big move in gold price is coming after weeks of neutral stance – analysts

The gold market has been steady so far in June, trading between $1,940 and just under $2,000 an ounce. But analysts warn that after weeks of sideways price action, gold is ready for a more significant move.

The caveat is it could be in either direction, Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News. "Gold has traded sideways long enough that we are due for a bigger move one direction or the other — retesting the $1,880 level or getting back up to around $2,000," Millman said.

The Fed confused the markets Wednesday with a "hawkish pause" and a promise of two more rate hikes.

"What the Fed did was neutral for gold. A pause is good for gold. But it was the most hawkish pause we could have gotten. And that is why gold has traded sideways," Millman explained.

Gold is holding up well in the face of the Fed's warning of two more rate hikes, OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.

"The Fed locked themselves into a hold since they signaled they were going to do that before the meeting," said Moya. "There was a communication mistake by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in weeks leading up to this decision. Otherwise, data supported the hike."

At the press conference, Powell did not commit to a rate hike in July, stating that the U.S. central bank will remain data-dependent, added Moya.

"Fed Chair Powell is trying to keep optionality on the table. There's a chance we could have continued softer inflation prints. He doesn't want to lock himself in," he said. "That's why gold is not at $1,900. If the Fed's dot plot was confirmed at the press conference, gold would be trading at $1,900."

At the time of writing, August Comex gold futures were trading at $1,968.20, down 0.13% on the day and largely flat on the week.

Markets are currently pricing in one more rate hike in July only. If that changes, gold will react, the analysts said.

In the meantime, gold is paying close attention to macro releases and the U.S. dollar. Also, precious metals investors are monitoring central bank gold buying activity, which has slowed in the second quarter.

"Even though it slowed down quite a bit," said Millman. "The World Gold Council survey said that one in four central banks planned to continue to buy gold. They buy in large volumes, and gold will respond to what central banks are doing."

 

Mixed signals and gold's price direction

There is still a risk of a significant selloff in the gold market because that would be symmetrical to what happened over the past two years when gold reached $2,000 an ounce, Millman pointed out. "The next most likely move for gold is lower," he said.

Markets are eyeing Powell's two-day testimony before the House and Senate next week, a lineup for Fed speakers, and more macro releases.

"Gold is going to be facing a lot of mixed signals next week," said Moya. "Fed speakers, flash PMIs, and more easing from China (commercial banks are cutting rates). In theory, we could still see risk appetite holding in there, which will keep gold choppy."

With the Fed largely data-driven into the July meeting, macro releases could become big market movers.

"Gold pricing is still searching for confirmation that the Fed is really done and/or a US$-negative catalyst," said MKS PAMP head of metals strategy Nicky Shiels. "Data will become more sensitive and important into a July meeting where a hike is pretty much guaranteed."

Gold's technical trading is also essential to monitor. The longer the precious metal remains steady in the face of this hawkish pressure, the more likely prices will rally, noted Shiels.

"On the surface, it's a bearish precious outcome, but the longer gold can't go down, [it] must go up. The thinking is that gold prices will read through their hawkish rhetoric/talk, and at the core is, the Fed has paused (and can pause again) = therefore, they're done," she said.

 

Data next week

Tuesday: U.S. building permits and housing starts,

Wednesday: Fed Chair Powell testifies

Thursday: Bank of England rate decision, Fed Chair Powell testifies, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. existing home sales

Friday: U.S. manufacturing PMI

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Silver outshines gold with better short-term performance

Silver outshines gold with better short-term performance

Both gold and silver investors have focused on the recent decision by the Federal Reserve that was revealed at this month's FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve decided not to raise its benchmark Fed funds rate this month after raising rates for the last 10 consecutive FOMC meetings beginning in March 2022. However, both the statement and press conference by Chairman Powell laid out a monetary policy that would incorporate two additional rate hikes this year, and maintain these elevated rates for the remainder of the year. The Federal Reserve's “dot plot” forecast indicated that the Fed funds rates would likely increase to between 5 ½% and 5 ¾%.

Gold and silver pricing were mixed today with silver futures closing higher and gold futures closing unchanged. As of 5:37 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active August contract is unchanged on the day and fixed at $1970.70. Silver futures basis the most active July contract gained 1.35% or $0.32 in trading today and is currently fixed at $24.27. Although both gold and silver futures declined on the week, silver's short-term performance has outperformed recent gains in gold.

When we look at recent activity from the last week in May to current pricing both metals recovered from the strong price declines that began during the first week of May. The percentage gain in silver has been almost 3 times of that seen in gold since May 26th.

On May 26, gold futures were priced at $1944 per ounce $26 below today's closing price of $1970. this means that over the last three weeks, gold has gained approximately 1.36%. Silver was fixed at $23.36 on May 26 and has gained approximately $1.34. Which is a percentage gain of 3.82% almost triple the return of gold.

There are several reasons that silver is outperforming gold in the short-term. However, in this article, I will name what I believe are the two obvious variables at play. First, silver has an industrial component that does not exist in gold. Recent gains in US equities especially the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite have fueled greater demand for silver. Secondly, although both are considered to be haven assets, gold is the front-running precious metal utilized

as a haven investment. Because of that gold is more susceptible to rising interest rates.

Whether or not silver will continue to outperform gold is unknown. However, looking at both precious metals on a short-term basis it is clear that silver has outshined gold in terms of percentage gains and returns.

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold breaks below its 100-day moving average but recovers as the dollar tanks

Gold breaks below its 100-day moving average but recovers as the dollar tanks

Commentaries & ViewsShare this article:

Gold futures basis the most active August Comex contract traded below its 100-day simple moving average which is currently at $1950.70 after trading to an intraday low of $1936.10. However, as of 4:34 PM EDT, gold futures are trading just off the high of $1972.80 and are fixed at $1970.40.

On May 17, gold prices broke below their 50-day moving average for the first time since pricing moved above it on March 13. The rally that occurred in March began in November 2022 when gold had hit a triple bottom just above $1620. The first leg of this rally would take gold to just below $1980 before entering a corrective period which took gold pricing to approximately $1810. On March 13 gold traded back above its 50-day moving average on its way to this year’s highest value just above $2080 in May. After hitting the highest value of the year gold began its current correction that took gold to its current price as seen in the chart below.

That being said, today’s story is not so much about gold closing fractionally higher and back above its 100-day moving average but rather the dollar's strong devaluation and gold’s tepid response. If not for the decline in the dollar index today gold most certainly would have closed strongly in the negative. The dollar declined by 0.77% taking the dollar index to 102.12. Gold futures only gained 0.08% in trading today and when compared to the dollar's decline of 0.77% it indicates that traders were selling gold futures.

The same can be seen in the pricing of spot gold which increased by $16 per ounce according to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX). On closer inspection dollar strength added $17.10 per ounce, and normal trading resulted in a price decline of– $1.10.

The chart above is a long-term daily Japanese candlestick chart of the dollar index. It clearly illustrates how strong selling pressure has been taking the dollar index (DX) from a high above 114 in September of last year to lows just above 100.50 in February. Each of the last two rallies has had lower highs than the previous. Most importantly today’s strong price decline took the dollar index below both its 100 and 50-day moving averages.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley