Tag Archives: kinesismoneysystem

Bullion Trades above 1950 while markets await central banks decision

Last week gold jumped close to the psychological threshold of $2,000 before slowing down on Thursday and Friday, while the US dollar showed recovery signals. Despite this time, the price of bullion remained above $1,950. Overall, the trend for the gold price still appears positive. Investors are, once again, in a wait-and-see mode. Indeed, we have just entered a week with a very busy macroeconomic agenda that could break the recent low volatility scenario.

The focus will be on central banks, starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, at which the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate hike from 5.25% to 5.50% after last month’s pause. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will likely move in the same direction, raising rates from 4.00% to 4.25%, while on Friday morning, the Bank of Japan will hold its traditional conference. Any dovish surprise, particularly from the Fed, could be positive for gold, with good chances of seeing a new attack to the $2,000 mark. Vice versa, if the US central bank opens the door to new raises (after the one already expected by the markets), stocks and gold could be negatively impacted.

The week’s busy agenda also includes the preliminary release of the US Q2 GDP and the initial jobless claim. Analysts expect GDP growth of 1.8% (compared to the previous +2.0%), while the jobless requests should remain steady or slightly grow. These data will be strictly monitored by the Fed for its next monetary policy decision and, of course, by gold traders looking for new catalysts that could help bullion continue its rally.

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold silver weaker as USDX continues its rebound

Gold, silver weaker as USDX continues its rebound

Gold and silver prices are moderately lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, pressured by the U.S. dollar index continuing its recovery after hitting a 15-month low last week. Focus of the marketplace is on a key central bank decision at mid-week. August gold was last down $4.50 at $1,962.00 and September silver was down $0.245 at $24.61.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most market watchers believe the Fed will raise the main U.S. rate, the Fed funds rate, by 0.25%. As usual, the marketplace will closely scrutinize the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell's remarks at his press conference for clues on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy in the coming months.

A Barron's news headline today reads: “Tech earnings, Fed rate call, inflation data—expect crucial answers this week."

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. The U.S. stock indexes are hovering near their highs for the year.

Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest – July 24

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.837%.

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.60. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,969.80 and then at Friday's high of $1,975.90. First support is seen at last week's low of $1,958.10 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $24.89 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $24.425 and then at $24.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 310 points at 384.90 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 396.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 388.85 cents and then at 396.40 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 378.10 cents and then at 374.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

It was a disappointing week for gold prices this past week

It was a disappointing week for gold prices this past week.

Sure, the precious metal just barely pulled off a gain of +0.3%. However, XAU/USD reversed most of its upside progress in what could have been a 1.8% rally. Let us take a closer look at the price action.

On the daily chart below, gold was seen struggling to hold a push above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1971.63. The breakout was false at the conclusion of last week. That is now placing the focus on support. This is a combination of the 1936 inflection point as well as the 50-day Simple Moving Average.

Prices remain above the 50-day SMA, which is offering a cautious upside technical bias. From here, this line may hold as support, reinstating an upside focus. Otherwise, extending lower places the focus on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1903, as well as the former falling trendline from May.

In the event of a turn higher, keep a close eye on the 14.6% level at 2013 before retesting the 2048 – 2080 zone.

Chart Created in TradingView

It was a slightly worse story for silver prices last week. XAG/USD finished -1.4% over the past 5 trading days. Like gold, there was a false breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 24.66 as prices were unable to push through the 14.6% point at 25.22. A turn lower from here leaves silver facing the 20-day SMA, which may maintain the near-term upside bias.

But, getting there entails clearing the 38.2% level at 23.75. Clearing both this point and the SMA would offer a stronger bearish conviction, placing the focus on lows from June. Otherwise, extending higher places the focus on highs from April 2022. The latter makes for a range between 25.85 and 26.21.
 

Silver Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

Tim Moseley

Eyes on the Fed the ECB and the BOJ

Eyes on the Fed, the ECB, and the BOJ

Next week, markets will be digesting the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy statements.

There was a lot of optimism this week that the Fed was close to being done with its tightening cycle despite Powell's promises of at least two more rate hikes this year.

"The Fed is almost certain to hike its policy rate by 25bp to between 5.25% and 5.50% at next week's FOMC meeting, but we increasingly believe that will prove to be the peak," said Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth.

Behind this optimism was June's inflation data, which showed inflation sharply cooling in the U.S. The consumer price index rose 3% last month — the slowest pace in over two years. And the core CPI measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 4.8%, marking the slowest advance since 2021.

"Despite the 'higher for longer' rhetoric from officials, a more marked decline in core inflation and easing in labor market conditions in the second half of this year will eventually persuade the Fed to pivot and cut rates aggressively next year," Ashworth noted Friday.

For next week's FOMC statement, analysts will pay close attention to any changes to the inflation narrative and how strongly the Fed maintains its tightening bias.

"In his press conference, Chair Jerome Powell may even go as far as to stress that additional rate hikes this year are still necessary," Ashworth said. "Markets are unconvinced, however, and broadly agree with our view that the Fed is almost done tightening."

Before the Fed can signal that it's done raising rates, there will be a period of uncertainty and data dependence, said TD Securities senior commodity strategist Ryan McKay. And for gold, it could mean a pause before the next move higher.

"Speculators have been unwilling to fully buy into the bullish gold narrative," McKay said Friday. "Indeed, discretionary traders and investors have thus far remained on the sidelines for now. But, this also offers the potential for additional upside should Fed expectations turn more dovish, and this cohort begins deploying their dry-powder."

The ECB is also expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, with analysts paying close attention to ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments. Meanwhile, the BOJ is projected to keep rates steady and its yield curve control unchanged.

"It seems that while the BOJ stands pat, the other major central banks are tightening, and that should continue to drive that interest rate differential trade," Moya pointed out.

 

Data next week

Tuesday: U.S. CB consumer confidence

Wednesday: Fed decision, U.S. new home sales,

Thursday: ECB decision, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. durable goods orders, U.S. GDP Q2, U.S. pending home sales

Friday: BOJ decision, U.S. PCE Price Index

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Market participants brace for the potential of more hikes after next week

Market participants brace for the potential of more hikes after next week

Members of the Federal Reserve tend to keep their future actions close to their chest revealing little insight as to any upcoming revisions to their aggressive monetary policy that has been in play since March 2022. While they have announced that they plan to implement two more quarter-percent rate hikes by the end of the year, many investors, economists, and analysts believe that next week’s rate hike will mark a conclusion to the aggressive campaign the Fed has undertaken to reduce inflationary pressures.

The CME’s FedWatch tool has conveyed an exceedingly high probability of a rate hike this month but is predicting a high probability that the next rate hike could be the last by the Federal Reserve this year. The probability that the Fed will raise rates next week has grown from 96.7% a week ago, to 99.2% yesterday. Today the CME’s probability indicator is now predicting a 99.8% probability that the Fed will raise rates next Wednesday.

At the same time if you look out to the three remaining FOMC meetings scheduled for this year there is a reasonable possibility that they will let rates stand between 5 ¼% and 5 ½% for the remainder of the year. The likelihood now stands at 84.9% that the Fed will pause and leave rates at their current levels in September, followed by a 70.8% probability that they will continue to maintain those levels in November, and a 65.3% probability that by the end of this year, the Federal Reserve’s benchmark terminal rate will stand pat between 5 ¼% and 5 ½%.

The question becomes will the written statement released after Wednesday’s meeting or comments made during the press conference by Chairman Powell allude to the potential that their aggressive rate hikes may be concluding? Members of the Federal Reserve especially the chairman is very guarded when it comes to monetary policies in recent history Powell’s statements might not express that possibility or even mention whether such discussions were on the table between Fed members during next week’s critical FOMC meeting.

It is this uncertainty that is once again moving gold to lower ground while at the same time strengthening the dollar. As of 6:20 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active August contract is down $7.00 and fixed at $1963.90. Today’s settlement price is just above the 100-day simple moving average. But it must be noted that gold traded to an intraday low that broke below both gold’s 100 and 50-day moving averages.

The dollar continues to gain traction gaining 0.21% in trading taking the dollar index to 100.81. It is quite feasible that we see continued dollar strength and lower gold prices before Wednesday’s conclusion of this month’s FOMC meeting. While there will be a lot of conjecture and assumptions on possibilities that might occur after the September meeting it seems unlikely that it will be revealed in the federal reserve statement released at the conclusion nor found in the words of Chairman Jerome Powell when he holds his standard press conference one’ half-hour after the meeting concludes.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold encounters technical and fundamental resistance at 1980

Gold encounters technical and fundamental resistance at $1980

Gold futures are definitely under pressure today, with the most active August 2023 contract down $8.70 or 0.44% and fixed at $1972.10. The root cause is dollar strength that overcame fractional buying and still was able to take gold prices moderately lower. While gold futures declined by 0.44% the dollar gained 0.56% with the differential indicating that market participants were lightly bidding the precious yellow metal higher. Currently, the dollar index has moved back over 100 and is currently fixed at 100.545.

This can also be seen in spot gold pricing which according to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX) is currently fixed at $1969 per ounce, down $7.50 on the day. However, on closer inspection dollar strength reduced an ounce of gold by $10.50, and normal trading bid gold prices $3.00 higher resulting in today's decline.

This is quite different from silver pricing today which is also trading lower. Currently, the most active September 2023 futures contract is fixing silver prices at $24.95 down approximately $0.44. Spot silver is currently fixed at $24.72 after factoring in today's decline of $0.39. However, unlike gold prices silver traded lower from both dollar strength and market participants bidding silver lower. Dollar strength accounted for a decline of $0.13, and selling pressure by investors took an ounce of silver $0.26 lower resulting in today's $0.39 price decline.

In the case of gold, the fractional buying was a sign that market participants still believe that there is upside potential based on positive market sentiment that the Federal Reserve might only raise interest rates ¼%, rather than their recent announcement that they would raise rates by ¼% two more times this year. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 99.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at next week's FOMC meeting by ¼%. The FedWatch tool is predicting that after raising rates this month they will pause at the September meeting with the probability of that occurring at 83.9%, a 66.2% probability that they will continue to hold rates between 5 ¼% and 5 ½% in November, and a 60.8% probability that the Fed will do the same thing in December leaving rates where they will be after one more rate hike.

This differs from silver because the silver investors have implemented a round of aggressive profit taking moving both spot and futures prices back below $25. Silver futures traded to a double top Wednesday and today after hitting intraday highs at approximately $25.48. The editor of Kitco News, Neils Christensen interviewed Huw Roberts, the head of analytics at Quant Insight today where he said that “according to the firm's modeling, the silver price is about 5.7% overvalued." He said that fair value is around $23.86 an ounce. Adding that, “The signals we are starting to see in silver are getting interesting… The rally in silver has overshot its fundamentals."

Our technical studies have shown that it is highly probable that the recent decline in the dollar has concluded after the dollar index bottomed at 99.25 on Tuesday. In fact, since July the dollar index was trading well above 103. On July 6 the dollar hit an intraday high of 103.27 and began a strong decline in value trading lower for seven consecutive days resulting in recent lows in the dollar approximately 3% lower than the high achieved the first week of July. In other words, the dollar lost approximately 3% in value when compared to the basket of six currencies it is weighted against. We believe on a technical basis that the dollar index will increase short-term taking the index to approximately 101.50 before encountering any technical resistance.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

There is a reasonable probability the Fed will conclude its rate hikes this month

There is a reasonable probability the Fed will conclude its rate hikes this month

The CME Fed watch tool is predicting that there is a 99.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a ¼% rate hike on July 26 when the next FOMC meeting concludes. It is also likely that this month's rate hike will conclude the series of hikes by the Federal Reserve that began in March 2022. The latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) reports indicate that inflationary pressures are diminishing and getting closer to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

At its highest point, the CPI was at 9.1% and has now contracted to 3% in June. This combined with a decrease of 0.2% through June in the Producer Price Index (for all goods minus food and energy). A survey conducted by the University of Michigan revealed that consumer sentiment skyrocketed to 72.6% in July 13% above sentiment in June.

If the Fed is as they have long proclaimed "data dependent" then these recent reports demonstrate that the U.S. economy has contracted substantially bringing down the level of inflation.

The CME's probability indicator is forecasting an 87.9% probability that rates will be left where they are at the September FOMC meeting, a 71.8% probability in November, and a 64% probability in December.

An article penned by Avraham Shama an Opinion Contributor for THE HILL titled, "The Fed is raising interest rates again: it's a mistake that could spark a recession", warns that if the Fed wants the best serve the US economy it must stop raising rates to avoid a recession.

In his article, he addresses the fact that "the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell have been unable to recognize a heating or cooling economy in a timely fashion to take quarterly action to minimize the negative effects". He discusses a series of missteps beginning with monetary tightening by the Fed in 2019 prematurely which required a pivot to reverse that trend. He addressed the fact that the Federal Reserve waited too long before initiating the first rate hike in March 2022 when inflation was already above 8%.

Gold traded to its highest value this year during the first week of May when gold briefly touched $2083 and then corrected to a low of $1900 on June 20. Today gold futures basis the most active August contract is fractionally lower down $0.40 or 0.02% and fixed at $1980.40.

It is reasonable to assume that market sentiment will assume a much more bullish demeanor if it has clear knowledge that the series of rate hikes is over. More importantly, when the Federal Reserve does initiate its first rate cut which could occur as early as the first quarter of 2024 one would expect bullish market sentiment to return allowing gold to challenge the recent record highs just below $2100 per ounce.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold rallies as empowered bulls set sights on 2000

Gold rallies as empowered bulls set sights on $2,000

Gold prices are sharply up and hit a 2.5-month high in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Silver prices are also sharply up and hit a nine-week high. The charts have recently turned more bullish for both precious metals, which is inviting the technically based speculators to the long side of those markets. A weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report this morning is also supporting ideas the Federal Reserve can take its foot of the gas sooner, regarding its interest-rate-increase cycle. August gold was last up $26.40 at $1,983.00 and September silver was up $0.347 at $25.365.

June U.S. retail sales were reported up 0.2% versus expectations of a rise of 0.5%, month-on-month. This report, along with the U.S. employment report for June released in early July, seem to fall into the sweet spot for those market watchers looking for a soft landing for the U.S. economy. No U.S. and/or global recession setting in would be a scenario for better global demand for metals. Yet, global growth is not so strong as to prompt major central banks to continue tightening their monetary policies and raising interest rates, which would crimp demand for commodities.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday and hit new highs for the year. The U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts, also reflecting the upbeat trader and investor attitudes at present.

The U.S. dollar 'will die' with BRICS new currency, warns Robert Kiyosaki

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are up trading around $75.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.777%.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, August gold futures prices hit a 2.5-month high today. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,988.30 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at $1,972.00 and then at today’s low of $1,958.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

September silver futures prices hit a nine-week high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.645. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $25.405 and then at $25.85. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $24.815 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 85 points at 383.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 396.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and then at the July high of 395.40 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 380.30 cents and then at 374.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

It’s too early to call a bullish rally in gold the Fed is still the biggest unknown

It's too early to call a bullish rally in gold, the Fed is still the biggest unknown

The gold market will remain very sensitive to the Federal Reserve's rate outlook, so it is too premature to call a bullish rally in gold after prices gained more than $30 on the week, according to analysts.

Gold got a boost after June's U.S. inflation report showed price pressures rising at the slowest pace in two years. The U.S. CPI was up 3% last month from a year ago, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was at 4.8%, both below estimates.

The August Comex gold futures last traded at $1,961.70, up just over $30 on the week, after firmly holding the $1,900 an ounce level.

"The fact that gold held above $1,900 despite everyone expecting the Fed to hike interest rates in July is a vote of confidence," Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News. "The Fed will drive the gold market for the next few months. And higher for longer rates would be negative for the price. Gold's current reaction means that either all rate hikes are not priced in yet or maybe markets' expectations do not match reality."

The Fed is still planning on hiking rates at least twice this year, with market expectations for the July meeting pricing in a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. The second rate hike is yet to be priced in, which is why analysts remain cautious about gold in the short term.

"If anything, people want to go bullish on gold on any feeble pretext, including the hope that the Fed will go accommodative quickly and end the tightening program," TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "At this point, it is too early to get overly bullish."

Even though the inflation narrative is starting to look better, it is not a done deal, especially considering the spike in energy prices. "We have recently seen a significant rise in oil prices as OPEC continues to reduce supply. The big benefit we received from cheaper energy may reverse to some extent in the months to come," Melek warned.

Plus, it is not likely that the Fed will be quick to change its hawkish rhetoric as it impacts its credibility going forward. "I doubt that the Fed starts easing us as quickly as the market thinks. Data could surprise to the upside, and the Fed sticks to its guns. And that could be a problem for gold," Melek noted.

What the Fed does next is still a big mystery, Millman said, noting that it is difficult to predict how some of the lagging effects of such aggressive monetary policy tightening will affect broader markets.

The key question for markets is not by how much the Fed is yet to hike, but for how long will the rates remain elevated before the Fed starts to cut, Millman added.

"If they turn around and cut rates at the end of this year or beginning of next year, markets will have a strong reaction," he said. "It is important to know what the next step is — how long rates will stay high and when is the rate cut coming. That's what's keeping gold in place."

Based on previous statements, the Fed is likely to err on the side of tightening, which would mean rates will remain higher for longer, Millman noted. With inflation being elevated for 18 months above 2%, Fed Chair Powell believes markets need time below 2% to balance that out.

Gold price levels to watch

Melek described the latest move in gold as likely short-lived, with short-covering driving prices higher. "That is going to reverse to a great extent. The rally is too premature, and there are significant risks of unwinding," he said.

The immediate resistance is at $1,966 and $1,970, and support is at $1,930, $1,900, and then $1,896 an ounce, Melek added.

Millman said he is also not ready to move into the bullish camp yet. He sees the next big resistance at $1,975-80 and support at $1,900.

Next week's data

Monday: NY Empire State Manufacturing index

Tuesday: U.S. retail sales, U.S. industrial production, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks

Wednesday: U.S. hosting starts and building permits

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing Index, U.S. existing home sales

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold silver boosted on notions Fed tightening cycle near an end

Gold, silver boosted on notions Fed tightening cycle near an end

Gold prices are modestly up and hit a three-week high, while silver prices sharply up and hit two-month high in midday U.S. trading Thursday. Another tame U.S. inflation report today has the marketplace thinking the Federal Reserve is likely nearer the end of its interest-rate-hiking cycle. That's bullish for commodity markets, including the metals. August gold was last up $3.30 at $1,965.00 and September silver was up $0.64 at $24.955.

The marketplace is basking in the glow of tame U.S. inflation reports that came out Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Today's producer price index for June also came in slightly lower than expected, following Wednesday tamer consumer price index for June.

Said analyst Nigel Green of the deVere Group: "The U.S. is now likely to pull off the perfect "soft landing,' with the world's largest economy avoiding a recession as the latest inflation data comes in cooler than expected. The U.S. CPI data raises hopes that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to bring down inflation without steering the U.S. economy into a recession. The battle on rising prices is being won, as the data suggests, meaning the pressure is off the Fed for future rate hikes. Cooling inflation and a strong and resilient labor market suggest that no recession will come in 2023.” That's a bullish scenario for commodity markets, suggesting better demand in the coming months.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are firmer at midday.

In overnight news, China's exports in June fell a worse-than-expected 12.4%, year-on-year, following a drop of 7.5% reported in May. Imports in June dropped a worse-than-expected 6.8%, year-on-year. That dour news from the world's second-largest economy did not put a damper on raw commodity markets today, but it may in the near term.

  Silver prices are up 4%; Is this the start of the rally? TD Securities says it is still three months away

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower and hitting a 15-month low. That's bullish for the raw commodity sector, as most raw commodities on world trade markets are priced in U.S. dollars. The weaker USDX makes those commodities less expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $76.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.8%.

Technically, August gold futures prices hit a three-week high again today. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have momentum. A nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are now in a fledgling uptrend. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.60. First resistance is seen at $1,975.00 and then at $1,985.00. First support is seen at $1,950.00 and then at Wednesday's low of $1,937.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September silver futures prices hit a two-month high today. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. A three-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.645. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at $25.00 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at $24.50 and then at today's low of $24.31. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 900 points at 394.30 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a 2.5-month high close today. The copper bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 418.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at the June high of 396.40 cents and then at 400.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 384.20 cents and then at this week's low of 374.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley