Gold starts December with all-time highs but can continue to ignore a hawkish Fed – analysts

Gold starts December with all-time highs; but can continue to ignore a hawkish Fed – analysts

A record closing price in November wasn't enough for gold investors, as solid momentum has pushed prices to an all-time high ahead of the weekend.

February gold futures last traded at $2,091.90 an ounce, up more than 4% from last Friday's close. Gold's previous record was at $2,089.20 in August 2020.

Gold is seeing renewed buying momentum as markets continue to price in a potential rate cut as early as March. The precious metal's rally comes even as the central bank maintains its tightening stance. Friday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that he is still not confident monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive enough to bring down inflation to 2%.

However, markets are paying little attention to what Powell is saying, as the CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are now pricing in a more than 50% chance of a rate cut in the first quarter of 2024.

"The precious metal remains supported by Fed cut bets while technical factors continue to support the upside momentum,' said Lukman Otunuga, Manager of Market Analysis at Forexlive.com. "In the absence of any fresh fundamental catalyst, November's monthly close above $2000 could provide a foundation for bulls to send prices higher."

Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer of Zaye Capital Markets, said this could be the start of a bigger move for gold with "bright days ahead."

"We believe that the Fed has reached its peak of rate hike cycle regardless of what some members of the Fed continue to say," he said. "We believe that there are actual real chances that the Fed will cut the rate towards the back end of Q1 next year. However, the threat remains stubborn inflation. If we don't see CPI flirting with the 3% mark or even lower, the Fed may keep rates at the current level till the end of H1."

Although the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy still poses a risk for gold, some analysts have said that a slowing economy means that, ultimately, the Federal Reserve's next move will be to cut rates, potentially sooner rather than later.

Robert Minter, director of ETF Investment Strategy at abrdn, said that cracks continue to appear in the U.S. commercial real estate market as the sector continues to feel the effects of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes and high vacancies as workers continue to work from home.

"If – that's a big ‘if,' but if we are seeing the beginning of commercial real estate bubble popping, there will be more money printing. That's part of what we are seeing with the gold price again today. Another part is the market pricing in no more rate hikes, and a higher potential for rate cuts in the near future. – then we could get a gold bull market like the last three times the Fed Funds rate cycle was in this spot," Minter said in a comment to Kitco News.

Minter added that the last three times the Federal Reserve has paused its tightening cycle, gold has rallied 57%, 235% and 69%, respectively. He pointed out that gold prices are so far up 5.4% since the Fed moved to a neutral stance.

Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, also noted that gold could be catching a safe-haven bid even as economic data remains fairly resilient.

"Gold is internalizing that people do not feel that way. Experts talk of a ‘rupture in our economic health and social fabric,' but less dramatically, people are simply feeling worse off than before and that's being expressed through havens," she said.

At the same time, analysts note that gold prices continue to move higher even as most retail investors shun the market. Analysts have said that gold prices will really move when this sentiment starts to shift.

Despite this optimism, some analysts recommend investors be cautious with gold at these levels and not to chase the market.

Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said that gold prices could be limited ahead of next Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.

"This is because the current expectations of Fed rate cuts of 50 basis points by mid-2024 are more likely to be disappointed. Accordingly, we also envisage a correction in the gold market. This could be triggered by the US labor market report at the end of the week," she said.

Some economists have said that investors should also pay attention to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey as inflation expectations have been elevated in recent months.

Phillip Streible said he also thinks the market has gotten a little ahead of itself as a March rate hike seems unlikely. He noted that it is unlikely the Fed will cut rates until inflation is closer to its 2% target.

Economic data for next week:

Tuesday: ISM Service-sector PMI, U.S. JOLTS Job Openings

Wednesday: ADP private sector employment, Bank of Canada monetary policy decision

Thursday: Weekly jobless claims

Friday: nonfarm payrolls, University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

  Gold prices to see a sustained push above $2,100 in 2024 – TD Securities

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The traffic generation the best converting sites for generating quality traffic that turns into members on your list

The traffic generation the best converting sites for generating quality traffic that turns into members on your list.

markethive

It seems like you are interested in finding the best converting sites for generating quality traffic that turns into members on your list. This is a common goal for many online marketers and entrepreneurs who want to grow their audience and revenue. There are many websites and platforms that can help you achieve this goal, but not all of them are equally effective or reliable.

To help you find the best sources of traffic for your list building, I have used my search web tool to look for some relevant and trustworthy articles and blogs that offer useful tips and strategies on this topic. Here are some of the results I found:

These are some of the best articles and blogs that I think you might find useful and informative. You can check out their links for more details and features. I hope this helps! 😊


Tim Moseley

Gold breaks record high is a new record price high around the corner?

Gold breaks record high is a new record price high around the corner?

As the saying goes; you ain't seen nothing yet! The price of Spot gold today is fixed at $2070.10, just about $10 below the record high achieved in May, according to Kitco News. Based on the continuous contract of gold futures which merges the most active contract month into the next most month active month broke the record high today. Closing at $2091.30, after factoring in today's gain of $35.10 or 1.71%. The highest close on record for the continuous futures contract occurred on Thursday, May 4 when gold futures hit an intraday high of approximately $2083 and closed at approximately $2059.

With this in mind, it is quite realistic to assume that gold could continue to challenge its record-high close. The chart above is a projection created this week using a combination of Elliott wave theory and Fibonacci extensions. It uses a model based on the ratio of impulse waves three and five. The most simplistic model states the relationship of the price gains in wave five is approximately 0.618% of the price gains found in wave three. Using this methodology, it is projecting the high to be achieved after a major Supercycle from 1975 to 2023 to be $2072.

In 2016 I co-authored a piece with my son Joseph Wagner titled “Gold's Super Cycle” in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities (TASC) in which we put forth a model of gold's super cycle that began in the 1970s following Nixon's final step to abolish the gold standard. The decoupling of gold and the US dollar kicked off a supercycle in the precious metal spanning over 50 years, the impulse phase of which (waves one through five) could have very well been completed today.

In the publication put forth by us approximately nine years ago, we predicted that we were in the fifth wave of gold's Supercycle and that the fifth wave would conclude at approximately $2063. Today's closing price in gold futures came within the margin of error of those projections. This study illustrates the power of Elliott wave theory and the Fibonacci sequence and suggests that gold may have concluded its fifth wave as well as its current rally. So does this study predict that gold will not trade any higher?

The simple answer is that on a long-term basis, no. However, on a short-term basis, it is very plausible. This is because gold will likely enter some sort of a correction (A, B, C) before beginning a new bullish Supercycle, as long as no new fundamental change occurs.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Rally in gold and silver is far from over

Rally in gold and silver is far from over

From the beginning of October to the last day in November silver has had a profound and dramatically strong gain. This despite one moderately deep correction beginning on October 19, and concluding on November 13. Monday, November 13, was the exact day that Silver pivoted back to a bullish demeanor. During the short span of a couple of weeks, silver futures traded from their lows at $21.93 to their current fix of $25.67.

Gold also ran a very parallel course with its rally beginning during the first week of October when it was trading at a mere $1840 per ounce, to the conclusion of the first leg of this rally occurring on Friday, October 27 at approximately $2040. Like silver, a strong correction followed taking gold to $1960 during the middle of November. Both precious metals resumed the rally with a vengeance once they individually completed their correction.

While both metals gained tremendous ground in terms of percentage gains market sentiment seemed to be favoring gold as a haven asset over silver. Gold pricing had a much more substantial gain than silver while both precious metals had more than respectable performances.

Because of its high usage as a major industrial component silver has had strong demand. However, according to the World Council, the pace at which central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold is at a new record and astute investors need to step back and wonder why.

More importantly, the underlying reasons that these metals will continue to rise are fairly transparent. Our national debt has grown to a record level above $34 trillion. The cost to just service the interest on that debt is quickly becoming as expensive as the annual Defense Department’s budget. Both Chairman Powell and Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen are on record stating emphatically that this is not sustainable. Add to that the multiple geopolitical hotspots that continue to rage, a recent decline in the dollar, and an imminent pivot by the Federal Reserve from a highly restrictive policy to a more accommodative one that officials are beginning to speak about.

While the above-mentioned economic fabric will be beneficial to both precious metals it is gold that will continue to gain value at a much greater pace than silver. The key takeaway for precious metals investors is that continued accumulation of physical gold and silver will be of great benefit further down the road.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The WEF Want In Recommending A Global Approach For The Crypto Industry

Crypto Regulations: The WEF “Want In” Recommending A Global Approach For The Crypto Industry 

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is notorious for having a far-reaching and perplexing influence over companies and institutions in many countries worldwide. This influence extends to the crypto industry and crypto regulations. The WEF published a crypto regulation white paper in May 2023, which is significant, so we’ll take a look at what they have to say and how it could influence the crypto legislation being proposed worldwide. We’ll also examine how it could affect the crypto market if implemented.


Image source: Weforum.com

The WEF white paper summarized in this article is titled “Pathways to the Regulation of Crypto-Assets: A Global Approach.” The white paper begins with a brief preface by a member of WEF’s Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. For context, WEF founder and chairman Klaus Schwab conjured up the Fourth Industrial Revolution. This concept involves replacing all of us so-called serfs with AI and Automation. Another component of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is controlling the population with technology. 

In the preface, the question is asked of how governments can control a borderless, open-source, and decentralized technology. Naturally, the only solution is a globally coordinated approach to regulation. The author of the preface reveals that the WEF has been engaging in “multi-stakeholder consultations” to understand how to roll out global crypto regulations. 

For reference, a stakeholder is a term the WEF uses to describe powerful individuals and institutions, not ordinary people like us. In this case, the author of the preface specifies that the white paper was put together with “significant contributions from members of the Digital Currency Governance Consortium.” (DCGC)

For those unfamiliar, the DCGC was formed in January 2020, including multiple crypto companies. The complete list of DCGC members is private. Still, research on the WEF reveals that Ripple, also the Ethereum company, Consensus, and USDC issuer Circle are all part of the DCGC, as are dozens of prolific personalities in the crypto industry. 

The DCGC has published five reports so far, and the WEF website notes that it is currently in phase two of its master plan, which involves assessing the economic effects of crypto, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies. (CBDCs) 

The Key Takeaways

The next section of the white paper provides a summary of the key takeaways. Here, the authors argue that global crypto regulations are not only desirable but “necessary.” They seem to suggest this is because of the increasing connections between crypto and traditional finance. The authors explain that many things are standing in the way of global crypto regulations, including: 

  • A lack of universally accepted definitions for different types of cryptos, 
  • A lack of coordination between Regulatory Agencies 
  • Regulatory Arbitrage, meaning some countries are too pro-crypto. 

The authors highlight that many unaccountable and unelected international organizations have been working on global crypto regulations. This includes the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Financial Action Task Force. (FATF) The authors admit that the WEF has been in contact with these organizations but insist that academia, civil society, and crypto users will also have a say in global crypto regulations. Of course, the authors don't put a timeline on when we will have a say in this matter; but we have yet to have a say in anything. 

Why Are Global Crypto Regulations Required?

The first part of the report is about why global crypto regulations are required. The authors start by explaining what crypto assets are and include stablecoins under the definition of a crypto asset. Note that these reports seldom refer to cryptos as currencies; they believe cryptos are not currencies. That said, the authors do acknowledge that cryptos have some financial use cases. They say that this is why regulatory scrutiny around crypto has increased. 

As you might have guessed, they refer to the crash of Terra last May and the crash of FTX last November as examples of why regulatory scrutiny is justified. The authors then explain that different jurisdictions have since introduced different crypto regulations. They claim that this increases the risk to the global financial system and benefits bad actors in the crypto industry. 

They also highlight the inconsistency in crypto definitions. The authors then suggest that smart contracts could be one way of ensuring regulatory compliance. This is not surprising considering that the WEF is a massive fan of programmability in payments. Again, the WEF and its affiliates ultimately want to control what people do, and programmable payments are one way to do just that.
 
When it comes to regulating cryptocurrencies, the authors say the first step is identifying where the crypto activity is taking place, if possible. The second step is to determine who is engaging in the crypto activity, and the authors say that privacy coins, personal wallets, and DeFi protocols make this problematic. This is a worry because it implies that personal wallets will be a target of global crypto regulations. 

Although, in fairness, the authors of this white paper don't seem to be that opposed to personal wallets. That's because they know that if you buy your crypto through an exchange with KYC, it's easy to identify which wallet belongs to who with the help of blockchain analytics companies like Chainalysis.  According to the authors, the third step to regulating crypto is determining who is responsible for any crypto activity. They admit this is sometimes difficult, mainly when dealing with decentralized protocols. They note that this will become easier if DAOs become regulated entities.

Crypto And Traditional Finance Connections

In the next section, the authors dig deeper into the connections between crypto and traditional finance. They start by saying that the crypto market’s correlation to BTC's price is a sign of maturity. Now this is arguably incorrect; a decoupling between different crypto categories would be a sign of maturity. What the authors do get right, however, is that institutional interest in crypto has been on the rise. 


Image source: Finoa

They cited a series of statistics from pro-crypto sources, which should be taken with a grain of salt. Genuine institutional interest and investment will come once crypto regulations are introduced everywhere. The authors also note that retail interest in crypto is on the rise and imply that this could cause problems for financial stability. This could explain why some countries, such as Canada, closely aligned with the WEF, have started introducing restrictions on retail investors in crypto. 

Besides contagion risks, the authors correctly underscore concentration risks as another concern. The crypto market relies on a handful of stablecoins, a handful of exchanges, and even a handful of cryptos. Oddly enough, the authors claim that Layer 2s on Ethereum lower this concentration risk. This is odd because many Layer 2s still rely on Ethereum for their security, which logically increases concentration risk, never mind that many of these Layer 2s are highly centralized and backed by the same investors. 

Challenges To Global Regulation 

The second part of the white paper is about the challenges to global crypto regulation. The authors start by reiterating that the absence of universally accepted crypto definitions is the biggest problem. They propose a potential taxonomy but admit that there are exceptions to every crypto definition. They then explain that this is a problem because it makes consensus about specific crypto regulations impossible. It increases the cost of crypto compliance worldwide, making it difficult to protect consumers. 


Image source: Weforum.com

According to the authors, regulatory arbitrage is the second challenge to global crypto regulation. They take issue with the fact that crypto developers can relocate wherever they want. It’s becoming all too clear that the WEF would like nothing more than to control the movement of people. 

On a related note, did you know that the WEF is also trying to turn almost every major city into a Smart City? More about that in an upcoming article. Meanwhile, Smart technology is already causing issues for consumers. 

The authors admit it might still be too soon to push for global crypto regulations. Most governments are still trying to wrap their heads around the technology. Some jurisdictions are further along than others, such as the EU, which recently passed its MiCA crypto regulations. 

The authors then reveal that these early crypto regulations, including MiCA, will come into force starting early next year. This is significant because this could make institutional investors comfortable allocating to crypto again. It means the crypto market could rally starting early next year. And this, coincidentally, corresponds with the next Bitcoin halving. 

The authors also take issue with so-called crypto hubs. They seem to imply that the crypto hub is code for ‘less crypto regulation’ and appear to blame them for causing regulatory arbitrage. If the WEF starts pulling the strings, this could be awkward for places like the UAE, Dubai, Hong Kong, and Singapore

Geopolitics

This ties into another vital angle the authors raised regarding crypto regulations – Geopolitics. International relations are deteriorating, making it difficult for certain countries to comply with global crypto regulation recommendations. It's safe to say that this trend will continue. 

The above relates to the third challenge to global crypto regulation: "Fragmented monitoring supervision and enforcement.” The authors reiterate that a lack of international cooperation is one of the core causes of this fragmentation, coupled with the rapid evolution of crypto-related technologies. 

The authors then provide the FATF's infamous travel rule as a case study. The travel rule requires all transactions above a certain threshold to be tracked and KYC’d. The authors complain about the fact that compliance with the FATF's travel rule has been slow when it comes to crypto. 

While we’re on that topic, you should know that the FATF has reportedly been pressuring countries to restrict or even permanently ban crypto to get off its grey list. Any country on this so-called naughty list is refused bailouts from the IMF, so a clean report from the FATF may be a political priority. If there is any truth to this, crypto hubs could face financial sanctions if they don't comply with the FATF’s crypto recommendations; perish the thought. 

Approaches To Regulating Crypto Globally

The third part of the white paper is about the possible approaches to regulating crypto on a global scale. The authors provide a de facto list of regulations the WEF wants to see. 

  • Crypto-specific 
  • Stablecoin-specific
  • Know Your Customer (KYC) /Anti Money Laundering (AML) 
  • Consumer protection, including restricting retail access to crypto 
  • Strict regulations around crypto marketing 
  • Regulation of DeFi and DAOs 

The authors then detail the five primary approaches to crypto regulation. 

1: The first is Principles-based regulation. This involves regulating around a series of broad principles rather than specific rules. The benefits of this approach are innovation and flexibility. The drawback is regulatory uncertainty. 

2: The second approach is Risk-based crypto regulation and involves applying the same risk/same regulation principle, meaning that crypto should abide by existing financial regulations. The benefit of this approach is regulatory certainty, and the drawback is difficulty in assessing risks. 

Notably, the WEF is a massive fan of this same risk/same regulation approach. It's why you see it in many existing regulatory recommendations for crypto. If that wasn't concerning enough, in this section, the WEF advocates for eliminating cash and going digital to ensure that KYC/AML is followed. 

3: The authors call Agile regulation the third approach to crypto regulation. This effectively allows regulations to evolve in response to new innovations. The benefit of this approach is that it is flexible. The drawback is that it requires much coordination and collaboration with the crypto industry. 

4: The fourth approach to crypto regulation is Self- and co-regulation. It involves allowing the crypto industry to set standards. The benefit of this approach is that it builds trust. The downside is that it can lead to capture; For instance, one company determines all the standards. 

5: The fifth approach to crypto regulation is one we’re all familiar with: Regulation by enforcement. It involves taking crypto companies and projects to court and using the precedent as de facto regulations. The benefit is accountability, and the drawback is zero innovation.

Interestingly, the authors asked their so-called stakeholders which regulatory approaches are best. The results can be seen in the image below. As one would expect, Risk-based regulation is the most popular, especially considering that the WEF is a fan of this particular approach. 


Image source: Weforum.com

The authors confirm that the other unaccountable and unelected organizations, such as the FSB and FATF, have been adhering to the WEF’s Risk-based approach to crypto regulation. It's preposterous to consider just how much influence the WEF has, and this is just the public stuff. 

WEF’s Recommendations for Global crypto regulations.

The fourth part of the report contains the WEF’s recommendations for Global crypto regulations. The authors explain that these recommendations are meant for international organizations, governments, and “industry stakeholders” who are presumably part of the WEF. 

In other words, these recommendations are what most crypto regulations will look like, regardless of what we, the people, say or do. The authors again claim that the average person will get the chance to give their input someday, but we’ll just have to wait and see if that happens. 

The first set of recommendations is specifically for international organizations. These are to;

  • Create definitions for different types of cryptos and crypto activities 
  • Set standards for how these cryptos and activities should be regulated
  • Share data about registered entities with all organizations. 

It brings into question whether ‘registered entities’ include the average crypto user. As it’s the WEF, the answer is probably, yes. After all, the endgame of these international elites is to create a global government with a global digital ID and a global centrally controlled digital currency. 

The second set of recommendations is specifically for governments. These are to; 

  • Coordinate regulations between jurisdictions.
  • Create regulatory certainty for the crypto industry.
  • *Use technology for regulation by design. 

*The latter means regulation at the blockchain level via Smart contracts. Remember, the WEF loves programmability. 

The third set of recommendations is specifically for the crypto industry. They are; 

  • To set standards 
  • To share best practices
  • Ensure “Responsible Innovation.” 

This seems to be code for adhering to ESG criteria, given that the term refers to environmental, social, and economic risks. 

If you've been following articles about ESG, you'll know it's an investment ideology to ensure the UN's sustainable development goals or SDGs are met. Every country is supposed to meet the UN's SDGs by 2030. My research suggests that all the dystopian stuff being pushed has its roots in the United Nation's SDGs, be it CBDCs, digital IDs, smart cities, or online censorship. 


Image credit: Markethive.com

What Affect Will It Have On The Crypto Market? 

So the big question is, how could the WEF’s global crypto regulation recommendations affect the crypto market if implemented? The short answer is that it would result in the crypto industry being absorbed into the existing financial system, which is precisely what the WEF wants. 

The practical effect of Risk-based regulation is that crypto is forced to comply with existing financial regulations. As the authors tacitly admit, these risks posed by crypto aren't always clear. Many argue that the risks are significantly different and justify different regulations. The WEF’s recommendations would make crypto worse than the existing financial system. That's because they would require information about all registered entities to be; 

  1. Shared with international organizations 
  2. Require regulations to be enforced via Smart contracts
  3. Require all cryptos to be ESG compliant 

These three unsuitable recommendations have one thing in common: Governance, more succinctly, control. This article about ESG and Bitcoin explains that the environmental aspect isn't the problem; it's the governance. Bitcoin can't be controlled because it has no traditional governance structure. In case you missed it, this is the core issue the WEF and its allies are trying to address. How do we control something that is designed not to be controlled? 

It's possible, if not likely, that the endgame of the environmental-focused attacks on Bitcoin is to track all Bitcoin miners and nodes. It’s something that the WEF’s global crypto regulations would prescribe because Bitcoin miners and nodes would presumably need to be registered. 

Their information would therefore have to be shared with all international organizations. At that point, it would become possible to control Bitcoin in theory. In practice, the WEF’s global crypto regulations will never come to pass, which the authors have also tacitly admitted. 

In addition to the geopolitical tensions, it's practically impossible to introduce the same crypto regulations in every single country simultaneously. This means that there's going to be some regulatory arbitrage, whether it's intentional or not. This regulatory arbitrage will exist for years, and in some countries, it will persist for decades. 

So long as there's a country out there that the WEF can't influence, it won't be able to entirely corrupt crypto. Also, because crypto innovation is essentially exponential, there's a high likelihood that it will evolve to the point that the WEF and its allies can’t control it. This is the most important takeaway – Crypto is too fast for the WEF. 

Klaus & Co will never be able to keep up, and crypto will eventually win the race. Right now, though, there are many hurdles facing the crypto industry, and the WEF’s white paper suggests that it played a role in putting those hurdles in place. The WEF's fingerprints are there, whether it's the FSB or the FATF. It’s also common knowledge that there are WEF allies in the crypto industry. 

Even so, many in the crypto industry who are on the right side of history, and we at Markethive, genuinely believe that the incentives of crypto are more robust than the WEF’s cronyism. Imagine helping to create a powerful crypto or protocol that allows the average person to preserve their purchasing power, grow their wealth, and maintain their financial freedom. In that case, you are rewarded in every possible way.  

As purchasing power, wealth, and financial freedom continue to erode, the incentive to create robust protocols with crypto will only increase. Eventually, the incentives will become so strong that the WEF’s hurdles will become irrelevant. The people will want freedom, and they will achieve it through crypto. 

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

References: World Economic Forum, Coinbureau

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Also published @ BeforeIt’sNews.com; Steemit.com; Substack.com

Tim Moseley

Gold silver posting modest gains amid bullish technicals

Gold, silver posting modest gains amid bullish technicals

Gold and silver prices are firmer near midday Wednesday. February gold futures hit a six-month high overnight, while March silver notched a three-month high. The two precious metals are being boosted by increasingly bullish near-term chart postures. A recently slumping U.S. dollar index that overnight hit a 3.5-month low is also a bullish outside market element for the metals markets. February gold was last up $3.90 at $2,064.10. March silver was last up $0.138 at $25.44.

(In my weekly Front Burner email report today, I detailed the price prospects for gold and silver in the coming weeks, and they are bullish. If you did not get it and are not signed up, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll forward it to you.)

U.S. economic data released today had little impact on the gold and silver markets. The second estimate of third-quarter GDP came in just a little higher than the first estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation readings were just slightly less than the first GDP estimates.

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are firmer in late-morning dealings.

  Bill Gates and other billionaire 'Controligarchs' are pushing for global digital IDs, centralized control and a 'paywall around your life' – Seamus Bruner

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $76.75 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. There is now no clear marketplace consensus on what OPEC will announce regarding its overall oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.28% and has fallen this week.

Technically, February gold futures prices hit another six-month high today. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,072.70 and then at $2,085.00. First support is seen at $2,050.00 and then at $2,039.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

March silver futures prices hit a three-month high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $26.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $25.68 and then at the August high of $25.775. Next support is seen at $25.00 and then at this week's low of $24.68. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 40 points at 383.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a 2.5-month high early on. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 392.65 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 386.45 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 378.60 cents and then at 375.80 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Try out my "Markets Front Burner" email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, "When China sneezes…" Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it's free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold surges dollar declines on Fed official’s remark amp geopolitical unrest

Gold surges, dollar declines on Fed official's remark & geopolitical unrest

After opening at $2035.10 in trading today gold futures surged to a high not seen for approximately the last year. As of 3:15 PM EST, the most active February 2024 contract has surged by $26.30 and is currently fixed at $2061.50.

A major component of today's strong upside move in gold was the continued decline of the dollar. The dollar has traded to a lower high, a lower low, and a lower close for the last three consecutive trading days. Currently, the dollar is down 0.44% and the index is fixed at 102.65. Considering that the dollar index was trading above 106 on November 1, the decline in value amounts to approximately 4%. The dollar index is weighted against a basket of six foreign currencies with the euro accounting for over half of the index's weight.

The U.S. dollar index was created in 1973 as a method to track the value of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies including the Euro (58%), the Japanese yen (14%), the British pound (12%), the Canadian dollar (95), the Swedish krona (4%), and the Swiss franc (4%).

A single statement by one of the more hawkish voting members of the Fed might have been the impetus to continue the dollar's decline. Christopher Waller, a voting member of the Federal Reserve who has been a board Governor since 2020.

Today he told the American Enterprise Institute think tank that he believes that “inflation rates are moving along pretty much like I thought”. He added, “I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%”. Most importantly he suggested that the Fed could start lowering rates if inflation continues to decline “for several months”, adding that, “There is no reason to say we will keep it really high."

While he is only one of many voting members the fact that he is considered one of the more hawkish members carries a lot of weight when it comes to signaling that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hikes and is now considering rate cuts if certain variables come into fruition.

Considering that the world is facing violent conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, combined with Waller's words these facts have taken gold well past the elusive and key psychological level of $2000 per ounce. In fact, on a technical basis, there is minor support at today's high of $2065 based upon a former support level or price bottom that occurred at the end of April. If this resistance is taken out the next levels we would look at are $2080 and $2100.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Power Of Repetition

The power of repetition

marketing

The power of repetition is a concept that has been studied and applied in various fields, such as psychology, education, management, and communication. It refers to the idea that repeating something can have positive effects on learning, memory, persuasion, and behavior. Here are some of the main points about the power of repetition:

Repetition is not always boring or tedious. It can be a powerful tool for personal and professional growth, as well as for influencing others. However, repetition also has some limitations and drawbacks. For example, repetition can lead to overconfidence, complacency, or resistance to change if we do not seek feedback or challenge ourselves2. Repetition can also be used to manipulate or deceive people by spreading false or misleading information3. Therefore, we should use repetition wisely and ethically, and balance it with other methods of learning and communication.

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Tim Moseley

Gold silver hit multi-week highs on weak USDX bullish charts

Gold, silver hit multi-week highs on weak USDX, bullish charts

Gold and silver prices are moderately higher near midday Monday, but down from their daily highs. February gold hit a four-week high and March silver a three-month high today. The precious metals are seeing buying support from a slumping U.S. dollar index that is trading near last week's three-month low. The technical postures for both metals also lean bullish, which continues to invite the chart-based traders to the long sides of gold and silver. February gold was last up $5.80 at $2,029.50. March silver was last up $0.358 at $25.06.

Gold and silver futures bulls are also benefiting from notions the U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising U.S. interest rates, following some recent tamer inflation numbers. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: "Gold edges higher on hopes Fed's tightening cycle may be over."

Asian and European markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are mixed near midday. From a markets perspective, there were no major geopolitical developments over the long U.S. Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

  Gold needs to break above $2,010 for prices to have a chance at ATHs

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $75.25 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. A Barron's headline today reads: "Oil prices are falling; OPEC is reaching the limits of its power." The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.574%.

Technically, February gold futures prices hit a four-week high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the October high of $2,039.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at $2,039.70 and then at $2,050.00. First support is seen at today's low of $2,022.00 and then at last Friday's low of $2,011.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures prices hit a three-month high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $26.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $25.29 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at today's low of $24.68 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 370 points at 379.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 392.65 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 384.15 cents and then the November high of at 386.00 cents. First support is seen at 375.80 cents and then at 371.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Try out my "Markets Front Burner" email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, "When China sneezes…" Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it's free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold prices holding above 2000 as US flash PMI provides muddled economic outlook

Gold prices holding above $2,000 as U.S. flash PMI provides muddled economic outlook

Gold prices are holding near session highs above $2,000 an ounce as preliminary indicators point to a further contraction within the manufacturing sector and neutral activity in the service sector.

Friday, the S&P Global Flash U.S. manufacturing PMI data fell to 49.4, down from October's revised reading of 50.0. According to consensus estimates, economists were looking for a relatively unchanged reading of 49.9.

Activity within the manufacturing sector has dropped to a three-month low, the report said.

Meanwhile, the service sector PMI remains in expansion territory, rising to 50.8 from October's reading of 50.6. The data beat expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a roughly unchanged reading of 50.4.

The report said that activity within the service sector has risen to a four-month high.

Readings above 50 in such diffusion indexes are seen as a sign of economic growth. The farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.

The gold market was seeing some renewed buying momentum ahead of the report, and the mixed data continues to provide some support. December gold futures last traded at $2,001.10 an ounce, up 0.42% on the day.

While U.S. economic activity remains in neutral territory, Siân Jones, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that conditions are moving closer to Federal Reserve expectations as the labor market and inflation show signs of cooling.

"Businesses cut employment for the first time in almost three-and-a-half years in response to concerns about the outlook. Job shedding has spread beyond the manufacturing sector, as services firms signaled a renewed drop in staff in November as cost savings were sought," Jones said in the report.

At the same time, the economist noted that inflation pressures are also starting to ease.

"Input price inflation softened again, with cost burdens rising at the slowest rate in over three years. The impact of hikes in oil prices appears to be dissipating in the manufacturing sector, where the rate of cost inflation slowed notably. Although ticking up slightly, selling price inflation remained subdued relative to the average over the last three years and was consistent with a rate of increase close to the Fed's 2% target," Jones said.

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter