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Gold is a better diversifier when bonds are this correlated to stocks – TheStreet’s Dierking

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Gold is a better diversifier when bonds are this correlated to stocks – TheStreet's Dierking

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Bonds are no longer a very good diversifier as they have become too correlated with equities, making gold and other commodities a superior choice, according to David Dierking, Editor of ETF Focus at TheStreet.

Dierking noted that investors who stuck with the classic 60/40 portfolio over the past couple of years have suffered, as “only a 100/0 portfolio really had a chance at generating positive returns.” And while 5% yields on Treasury bills have looked very attractive recently, long-term Treasury bonds are down 45% from their 2020 peak.

“As the Fed has executed the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in history, it’s lifted bond market volatility to historically high levels,” he said.

Dierking points out that the last time the bond market was this volatile was during the financial crisis, and this volatility has remained elevated for a year and a half. “I probably don’t need to tell you that when market volatility is at 15-year highs and has been that way for the past six quarters, nothing good usually comes of it,” he said.

With inflation still a problem, bond market volatility will likely remain high along with yields, so going heavily into Treasuries and cash isn’t the best move, he said, and investors should consider rotating part of their portfolio into gold and other commodities instead.

“Treasuries have a long history of acting as a great diversifier to stocks (the past two years notwithstanding),” Dierking wrote. “Their low correlation to other riskier asset classes helps to reduce overall portfolio risk and smooth out some of the volatility that occurs on a regular basis in the financial markets.”

But he said gold and commodities do the same thing, perhaps even better. “Gold has virtually no correlation at all to stocks, making it perhaps the ultimate diversifier,” he said. “Commodities also have a low correlation to stocks, but their price movements are often based more heavily on where we are in the market cycle.”

Dierking shows the relative performance of stocks, bonds, gold and commodities over the past 15 years.

“The historical absolute returns of each asset class aren’t what’s important here since the future is likely to look very different,” he said. “What’s much less likely to change are risk levels and inter-asset correlations. Equity correlation to both bonds and gold, historically, have been very low and the correlation to commodities, while higher, is still at the level where there is significant diversification benefits.”

Dierking wrote that the problem is that stocks and bonds are much more correlated today than in the past, perhaps as high as 0.80. “Plus, when that high correlation is associated with downside risk, it makes the portfolio construction decision that much more complicated,” he said. “While the stock/bond correlation is likely to return to the long-term average eventually, but the short-term solution may be to substitute the temporarily high correlation of bonds for the low correlation of gold and commodities.”

 

To test this, Dierking created three simulated portfolios: Portfolio #1 holds 100% U.S. Stock Market, Portfolio #2 is 80% U.S. Stock Market and 20% U.S. Bond Market, and Portfolio #3 contains 60% U.S. Stock Market, 20% U.S. Bond Market, 10% Gold, and 10% Commodities.

“You may ask why I would take the 20% away from stocks in Portfolio #3 instead of bonds,” he said. “The answer is that I believe we will soon enter a period where safe haven assets begin behaving like safe haven assets again. That likely comes with the onset of a potential recession in the next couple of quarters. If that happens, the higher return potential will be with bonds, not stocks.”

Dierking then back tests the three portfolios over the past 16 years.

“The all-stock portfolio produced better returns on an absolute basis than did the more diversified portfolios, but it also came with much more risk,” he noted. “The 60/20/10/10 portfolio lagged the 100/0 portfolio by about 2% annually, but it was also about 30% less volatile. Its maximum drawdown over the measurement period was also only about 2/3 of the all-stock portfolio.”

Dierking said that the most interesting finding was the comparative risk-adjusted returns. “The Sharpe and Sortino ratios for the 100/0 and 60/20/10/10 portfolios are virtually identical, which means that they’ve delivered the same amount of return for each unit of risk,” he said. “The more diversified portfolio just dials things back by about 30%.”

He added that this remains true when annual returns are analyzed. “There’s a very consistent pattern (with just a few outliers) where the gain/loss on the 60/20/10/10 portfolio is less than that of the other two,” he said.

Dierking wrote that while investors are always looking for ways to maximize returns, most don’t realize that they can get those returns while minimizing downside risk. “Losing less is just as valuable as gaining more,” he said. “If we are indeed trending towards a recessionary environment, the lower risk factor of the 60/20/10/10 portfolio could be incredibly valuable.”

By

Ernest Hoffman

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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What Are the Top Marketing and Automation Trends for Online Businesses?

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What Are the Top Marketing and Automation Trends for Online Businesses?

Marketing and automation trends are constantly evolving, and businesses that fail to keep up with these changes risk being left behind. With the rise of e-commerce and online businesses, it’s more important than ever to stay up-to-date with the latest trends in marketing automation. In this article, we’ll explore some of the key trends that online businesses should be aware of in 2023.

One of the biggest trends in marketing automation this year is the impact of AI on marketing strategies. AI-powered tools and platforms are becoming increasingly sophisticated, allowing businesses to automate a wide range of tasks and processes. This includes everything from lead generation and customer segmentation to personalized content creation and predictive analytics. As AI continues to evolve, it’s likely that we’ll see even more advanced marketing automation solutions emerge in the coming years.

Another important trend in marketing automation is the growing focus on personalization. With consumers becoming increasingly discerning and demanding, businesses need to find ways to tailor their marketing messages to individual customers. This means using data and analytics to gain insights into customer behavior and preferences, and then using that information to deliver highly targeted and personalized marketing messages.

Key Takeaways

  • AI is having a major impact on marketing automation, with businesses using advanced tools and platforms to automate a wide range of tasks and processes.
  • Personalization is becoming increasingly important in marketing automation, with businesses using data and analytics to deliver highly targeted and personalized marketing messages.
  • Omnichannel and social media marketing, improving customer experience, and ROI and benefits of marketing automation are other important trends that businesses should be aware of in 2023.

Marketing Automation Trends in 2023

Marketing automation is an essential tool for online businesses to save time and resources. As the world becomes increasingly digital, companies are investing more in marketing automation to stay ahead of the curve. Here are some of the top marketing automation trends for 2023:

  • Increased Investment in Marketing Automation: The number of marketers investing in marketing automation is expected to increase in 2023. This is due to the growing realization of the value and potential of marketing automation.

  • Omnichannel Marketing: In 2023, businesses will continue to focus on creating a seamless customer experience across all channels. This means that marketing automation tools will need to be able to integrate with a variety of channels, including social media, email, and mobile.

  • Personalized Content: Personalization is becoming increasingly important in marketing automation. In 2023, businesses will need to focus on creating personalized content for their customers to increase engagement and conversions.

  • Chatbots and Conversational Marketing: Chatbots and conversational marketing are becoming more popular in marketing automation. In 2023, businesses will need to focus on creating conversational experiences that are personalized and engaging for their customers.

  • Mobile-First Approach: In 2023, businesses will need to focus on creating a mobile-first approach to marketing automation. This means that marketing automation tools will need to be optimized for mobile devices to provide a seamless experience for customers.

  • User-Quality Data: In 2023, businesses will need to focus on collecting and analyzing user-quality data to improve their marketing automation strategies. This includes data on customer behavior, preferences, and demographics.

  • Lead Capture: Lead capture is an essential component of marketing automation. In 2023, businesses will need to focus on optimizing their lead capture strategies to increase conversions and revenue.

  • Marketing Automation Funnel: In 2023, businesses will need to focus on optimizing their marketing automation funnel to increase efficiency and effectiveness. This includes creating a clear and streamlined process for lead capture, nurturing, and conversion.

  • Social Media Marketing on Autopilot: Social media marketing is an important component of marketing automation. In 2023, businesses will need to focus on automating their social media marketing to save time and resources.

These are some of the top marketing automation trends for 2023. By staying ahead of the curve and implementing these trends, businesses can increase their ROI and stay competitive in the digital marketplace.

Impact of AI on Marketing Automation

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionized the marketing automation industry by providing businesses with powerful tools to streamline their marketing processes, optimize customer experiences, and increase revenue. AI-powered marketing automation has the ability to analyze large amounts of data, identify patterns, and make predictions, which can help businesses make informed decisions and improve their marketing strategies.

Role of Machine Learning

Machine learning is a subset of AI that focuses on the development of algorithms that can learn from data and make predictions. In marketing automation, machine learning algorithms can analyze customer data and behavior to create personalized experiences and targeted marketing campaigns. For example, machine learning algorithms can be used to analyze customer purchase history and browsing behavior to recommend products or services that are relevant to their interests.

Machine learning can also help businesses optimize their marketing campaigns by predicting which channels and messages are most effective for different customer segments. By analyzing customer engagement data, machine learning algorithms can identify which channels and messages are most likely to lead to conversions and adjust marketing strategies accordingly.

Chatbots and Conversational Marketing

Chatbots are another AI-powered tool that can be used for marketing automation. Chatbots are computer programs that can simulate human conversation and can be used to interact with customers in real-time. Chatbots can be used to answer customer inquiries, provide product recommendations, and even complete transactions.

Conversational marketing is a marketing strategy that uses chatbots and other conversational tools to engage with customers in real-time. By using chatbots to interact with customers, businesses can provide personalized experiences and build stronger relationships with their customers. Conversational marketing can also help businesses improve customer satisfaction and increase revenue by providing customers with a seamless and convenient shopping experience.

In conclusion, AI-powered marketing automation has the potential to revolutionize the way businesses approach marketing. By leveraging the power of AI, businesses can streamline their marketing processes, optimize customer experiences, and increase revenue. Machine learning and chatbots are just two examples of AI-powered tools that can be used for marketing automation, and businesses that embrace these technologies are likely to see significant benefits in the years to come.

Personalization in Marketing Automation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLRU2wg3yjo&embed=true

Personalization is a crucial aspect of marketing automation that has been gaining more and more attention in recent years. By tailoring marketing messages to individual customers, businesses can increase engagement, improve customer experience, and ultimately drive more sales. In this section, we will discuss two important sub-topics of personalization in marketing automation: hyper-personalization and personalized content.

Hyper-Personalization

Hyper-personalization is a relatively new concept that takes personalization to the next level. While traditional personalization involves segmenting customers into groups and tailoring messages to those groups, hyper-personalization involves creating unique messages for each individual customer. This can be achieved by leveraging customer data such as browsing behavior, purchase history, and social media activity to create highly targeted messages.

One example of hyper-personalization is Netflix's recommendation engine, which uses machine learning algorithms to suggest movies and TV shows based on individual viewing history. By tailoring recommendations to each individual user, Netflix is able to keep users engaged and reduce churn.

Another example of hyper-personalization is Amazon's product recommendations, which are based on a customer's purchase history, browsing behavior, and search history. By suggesting products that are highly relevant to each individual customer, Amazon is able to increase customer loyalty and drive more sales.

Personalized Content

Personalized content is another important aspect of marketing automation. By tailoring content to individual customers, businesses can increase engagement and improve customer experience. This can be achieved by using customer data such as browsing behavior, purchase history, and demographic information to create highly targeted content.

One example of personalized content is email marketing. By segmenting customers into different groups based on their interests and behavior, businesses can create highly targeted email campaigns that are more likely to be opened and clicked on. For example, a clothing retailer might send a different email campaign to customers who have previously purchased men's clothing versus customers who have purchased women's clothing.

Another example of personalized content is website personalization. By using cookies and other tracking technologies, businesses can create a personalized experience for each individual user. For example, a travel website might show different hotel recommendations to users who have previously searched for beach vacations versus users who have searched for ski vacations.

In conclusion, personalization is a crucial aspect of marketing automation that can help businesses increase engagement, improve customer experience, and drive more sales. By leveraging customer data and using targeted messaging and content, businesses can create highly personalized experiences for each individual customer.

Omnichannel and Social Media Marketing

Online businesses can benefit from adopting an omnichannel approach to marketing. Omnichannel marketing refers to the use of multiple channels to interact with customers. The goal is to create a seamless experience across all channels, so customers can engage with the brand on their terms.

One of the most important channels for online businesses is social media. Social media marketing involves using social media platforms to promote products and services, communicate with customers, and build brand awareness.

Automated Social Media Marketing

Automated social media marketing is an effective way for online businesses to reach their target audience on social media platforms. This approach involves using software tools to automate repetitive tasks such as posting content, scheduling posts, and analyzing performance metrics.

Automated social media marketing can save businesses time and resources, while also ensuring that their social media presence remains active and engaging. However, it's important to strike a balance between automation and personalization. Customers value authenticity and may be put off by overly robotic interactions.

Short-Form Video Marketing

Short-form videos are becoming increasingly popular on social media platforms such as TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. These videos are typically less than a minute long and can be used to showcase products, provide tutorials, or share behind-the-scenes glimpses of the business.

Short-form video marketing can be an effective way to build brand awareness and engage with customers. However, it's important to ensure that the videos are high-quality and relevant to the target audience.

Overall, online businesses can benefit from adopting an omnichannel approach to marketing and leveraging social media platforms to connect with customers. Automated social media marketing and short-form video marketing are two trends that can help businesses stay competitive in the online marketplace.

Improving Customer Experience with Automation

Online businesses are constantly looking for ways to improve their customer experience. One way to achieve this is by leveraging automation to streamline processes and provide personalized experiences. In this section, we will explore two areas where automation can enhance the customer experience: lifecycle marketing and customer retention.

Lifecycle Marketing

Lifecycle marketing is the process of guiding customers through the various stages of their journey with a brand. This includes everything from initial awareness to post-purchase support. Automation can help businesses deliver targeted messages to customers at each stage of the journey, increasing engagement and conversion rates.

One way to implement lifecycle marketing automation is through email campaigns. By creating automated email sequences triggered by specific actions or behaviors, businesses can provide relevant content and offers to customers at the right time. For example, a customer who has abandoned their cart could receive a personalized email with a discount code to encourage them to complete their purchase.

Another way to improve the customer experience through automation is by providing personalized recommendations. Using data such as purchase history and browsing behavior, businesses can create targeted product recommendations for each customer. This not only enhances the customer experience but also increases the likelihood of repeat purchases.

Customer Retention

Customer retention is a critical aspect of any online business. It is more cost-effective to retain existing customers than to acquire new ones, and loyal customers are more likely to make repeat purchases and recommend the brand to others. Automation can help businesses improve customer retention by providing personalized experiences and support.

One way to use automation for customer retention is through loyalty programs. By automating the tracking and rewarding of customer loyalty, businesses can incentivize repeat purchases and increase customer engagement. For example, a customer who reaches a certain spending threshold could receive a personalized discount code or free gift.

Another way to improve customer retention through automation is by providing proactive support. By using chatbots or other automated tools, businesses can provide instant support to customers who have questions or issues. This not only improves the customer experience but also reduces the workload for customer support teams.

In conclusion, automation can be a powerful tool for improving the customer experience in online businesses. By implementing lifecycle marketing and customer retention automation strategies, businesses can provide personalized experiences and support that increase engagement, retention, and revenue.

ROI and Benefits of Marketing Automation

Marketing automation is a powerful tool that can help online businesses increase their ROI and reap numerous benefits. Here are some of the ways that marketing automation can help businesses achieve their goals.

Lead Generation and Conversions

Marketing automation can help businesses generate more leads and convert them into paying customers. By automating processes such as email marketing, lead nurturing, and lead scoring, businesses can save time and resources while still reaching their target audience with personalized messages. This can lead to higher conversion rates and increased revenue.

In fact, according to Nucleus Research, marketing automation returns an average of $5.44 for every dollar spent on it. This means that businesses can see a significant return on investment by implementing marketing automation tools.

Qualified Leads and CRM

Marketing automation can also help businesses identify and prioritize qualified leads, allowing them to focus their efforts on the leads that are most likely to convert. By using lead scoring and other automation tools, businesses can track the behavior and engagement of their leads and use that data to determine which leads are most likely to become customers.

In addition, marketing automation can help businesses manage their customer relationships more effectively. By using a CRM system that integrates with marketing automation tools, businesses can track customer interactions across multiple channels and use that data to provide personalized experiences for their customers.

Overall, marketing automation can provide numerous benefits for online businesses, including increased ROI, improved lead generation and conversion rates, and more effective customer relationship management. By leveraging the power of automation, businesses can streamline their marketing processes and achieve their goals more efficiently and effectively.

Challenges and Solutions in Marketing Automation

Third-Party Cookies and First-Party Data

One of the biggest challenges facing online businesses in 2023 is the phasing out of third-party cookies. Third-party cookies have been a staple of online advertising for years, allowing advertisers to track users across the web and serve them targeted ads. However, with growing concerns about user privacy, major web browsers like Google Chrome and Mozilla Firefox have announced plans to phase out third-party cookies. This has left many marketers scrambling to find new ways to target users and measure the effectiveness of their campaigns.

One solution to this problem is to focus on first-party data. First-party data is data that businesses collect directly from their own customers, such as email addresses, purchase history, and website behavior. By leveraging this data, businesses can create more personalized and targeted campaigns without relying on third-party cookies.

Budget and Ease of Use

Another challenge facing online businesses is the budget and ease of use of marketing automation tools. While marketing automation can be incredibly powerful, it can also be expensive and complex to implement. Many businesses struggle to find the resources to invest in marketing automation, or to find tools that are easy enough to use without extensive training.

One solution to this problem is to look for marketing automation tools that are designed specifically for small and medium-sized businesses. These tools are often more affordable and easier to use than enterprise-level solutions, while still providing many of the same benefits. Additionally, businesses can look for tools that offer free trials or demo versions, allowing them to test the software before committing to a purchase.

Overall, while there are certainly challenges facing online businesses in 2023 when it comes to marketing automation, there are also solutions available. By focusing on first-party data and finding affordable, easy-to-use tools, businesses can continue to grow and thrive in the ever-changing digital landscape.

Future of Marketing Automation

Marketing automation is an essential tool for online businesses looking to streamline their marketing efforts. In this section, we will discuss the future of marketing automation and how it is expected to evolve in the coming years.

Global Marketing Automation Market Size

According to a report by MarketsandMarkets, the global marketing automation market size is expected to grow from $3.3 billion in 2020 to $6.4 billion by 2025, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.9% during the forecast period. The report attributes this growth to the increasing demand for digital marketing automation, the need for personalized marketing, and the rising adoption of customer-centric marketing strategies.

Marketing Automation Software

Marketing automation software is expected to become more sophisticated and user-friendly in the coming years. The software will be able to handle more complex tasks and provide more insights into customer behavior. Some of the trends that are expected to shape marketing automation software in the future include:

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI-powered marketing automation software will become more prevalent, allowing businesses to automate complex tasks, such as lead scoring, content creation, and personalized messaging.

  • Omnichannel Marketing: Marketing automation software will continue to support omnichannel marketing, allowing businesses to create a seamless customer experience across multiple channels, including email, social media, and mobile.

  • Mobile-first Approach: As mobile usage continues to grow, marketing automation software will need to be optimized for mobile devices. This will enable businesses to reach customers wherever they are and provide a better user experience.

  • Personalization: Personalization will remain a key trend in marketing automation software, allowing businesses to create tailored messages and experiences for their customers.

  • Chatbots: Chatbots will continue to be a popular tool for businesses looking to automate customer service and support. As AI technology improves, chatbots will become more sophisticated and better able to handle complex customer queries.

In conclusion, the future of marketing automation is bright, with the market expected to grow significantly in the coming years. Businesses that embrace marketing automation software and stay up-to-date with the latest trends will be better positioned to succeed in the digital marketplace.

Conclusion

In summary, marketing automation is a crucial way for online businesses to save time and money. By automating simple processes, companies can free up their teams to focus on more critical tasks. As we move further into 2023, there are several key trends that businesses should keep in mind when it comes to marketing automation.

Firstly, user-quality data is becoming increasingly important. By collecting and analyzing data on user behavior, companies can create more targeted and personalized marketing campaigns that are more likely to resonate with their audience.

Secondly, lead capture is another key trend to watch. By creating effective lead capture forms and ensuring that they are prominently displayed on their website, businesses can increase their chances of converting visitors into leads.

Thirdly, the emergence of omnichannel marketing means that businesses need to be present on multiple channels and platforms to reach their audience effectively. By providing a seamless experience across all channels, companies can build stronger relationships with their customers and increase their chances of success.

Fourthly, the marketing automation funnel is becoming increasingly important. By creating a clear and well-defined funnel, businesses can ensure that their marketing efforts are targeted and effective.

Fifthly, personalized content for users is essential. By tailoring content to the specific needs and interests of individual users, companies can increase engagement and build stronger relationships with their audience.

Sixthly, chatbots and conversational marketing are becoming more prevalent. By using chatbots to automate simple interactions with customers, businesses can improve their customer service and free up their teams to focus on more complex tasks.

Seventhly, social media marketing on autopilot is becoming more common. By automating social media posts and interactions, companies can save time and ensure that they are consistently engaging with their audience.

Lastly, a mobile-first approach is essential in today's mobile-first world. By optimizing their marketing efforts for mobile devices, businesses can ensure that they are reaching their audience where they are most likely to be.

Overall, by keeping these trends in mind and staying up-to-date with the latest developments in marketing automation, online businesses can stay ahead of the curve and achieve greater success in 2023 and beyond.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is marketing automation adoption affecting online businesses in 2023?

Marketing automation adoption is rapidly increasing among online businesses in 2023. By automating repetitive tasks, businesses can save time and resources while improving the customer experience. Marketing automation can help businesses to personalize their marketing efforts, improve lead generation, and increase conversions.

What are the key trends in omnichannel marketing for online businesses?

Omnichannel marketing is an emerging trend in 2023 that online businesses should be aware of. It involves creating a seamless customer experience across all channels, including social media, email, mobile, and in-store. The key trends in omnichannel marketing include hyper-personalization, conversational marketing, and a mobile-first approach.

What are the current trends for digital marketing and eCommerce in 2023?

Digital marketing and eCommerce are constantly evolving, and businesses need to keep up with the latest trends to stay competitive. In 2023, the key trends for digital marketing and eCommerce include voice search optimization, visual search, social media marketing, and video marketing.

What are the emerging eCommerce trends in 2023 that online businesses should be aware of?

Emerging eCommerce trends in 2023 that online businesses should be aware of include augmented reality, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence. These technologies can help businesses to create immersive shopping experiences that engage customers and increase conversions.

What are the top marketing and automation strategies for online businesses in 2023?

The top marketing and automation strategies for online businesses in 2023 include personalization, lead nurturing, email marketing, and chatbots. These strategies can help businesses to improve the customer experience, generate more leads, and increase conversions.

How is the future of marketing automation shaping up for online businesses in 2023?

The future of marketing automation looks promising for online businesses in 2023. With the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, businesses can automate more tasks and create more personalized experiences for their customers. As businesses continue to adopt marketing automation, they will be able to improve their marketing efforts, generate more leads, and increase conversions.

Tim Moseley

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6 Steps To Unlocking Cryptos Full Potential: Markethives Contribution to the Cause

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6 Steps To Unlocking Crypto's Full Potential: Markethive's Contribution to the Cause.

Although Bitcoin has existed for 15 years, the crypto industry is considered relatively nascent, and it’s frequently stated as still in the early days, meaning that many coins and tokens still have huge potential. Many believe this is somewhat underestimated. In perspective, the total market cap of stocks is $90 trillion, the total market cap of precious metals is $15 trillion, and just the US Dollar is over $20 trillion. The total market cap of crypto is only around $1 trillion, and considering some coins and tokens could someday become serious competitors to stocks, metals, or even national currencies means that crypto still has unprecedented potential. 

This article explores the six steps to achieving crypto’s full potential, how it will achieve this potential, what entities are moving forward, and how significant the returns could be. We’ll look at where we’ve come from and where we are heading and discover the critical component that brings this whole approach together. 


Image source: Finoa.io

Awareness and Education

The first step to achieving crypto's full potential is awareness and education because crypto can only receive investment or achieve adoption if people know about it. It can only receive investment or achieve adoption if people understand how it works and its value. Awareness of and education about crypto needs to be improved, as most of the attention either comes from mainstream media, arguably biased and aligned with the financial establishment, or from misleading advertisements, promotions, and partnerships, often from explicitly pro-crypto entities. 

Much of the education has also come from questionable sources, with most media outlets and influences pushing content purely to get clicks or token allocations. The result is that there is a general shortage of quality information about crypto, but this is improving. People are looking for quality information about crypto, and it’s increasing.

Another reason there’s been a lack of genuine education in crypto until now is that it's often more profitable to do other kinds of crypto content in the short term. It has given cryptocurrency an unfavorable reputation and is especially tough for those genuinely trying to educate others, but this seems to be slowly improving, too.

Some crypto content creators and influencers have taken shortcuts, finding themselves under the scrutiny of the SEC, while other countries have recently enforced strict regulations around crypto marketing.  As concerning as some of these regulations are, they are arguably necessary to ensure that the next wave of crypto content creators and influencers focus on crypto content with long-term value. 

Markethive, an entrepreneurial ecosystem, is a platform at the forefront of this shift as a next-gen crypto media outlet that champions free speech, focusing on genuine crypto content and education. The overall crypto landscape is at the beginning stages. Still, by the time the next crypto bull market hits, the quality of crypto awareness and education will be much higher than it has been, which will set the stage for crypto to reach its full potential. 

Crypto Regulation 

The second step to achieving crypto's full potential is regulation. It ties into the first step because regulators must know about crypto to write reasonable regulations. Institutional investors also need to be aware of and educated about these regulations. As we've seen, regulators worldwide are both aware of and educated about crypto for the most part. This is fortunate or unfortunate, depending on the jurisdiction in question. 

It's becoming clear that some are pushing for pro-crypto regulations while others are pushing for anti-crypto regulations. Believe it or not, any crypto regulation will benefit the crypto market if it doesn't involve an outright ban. This is just because investors, notably institutions, will finally have some guidance about what they can and can't do with crypto in their country. And once these investors and institutions get involved, you can bet that they will lobby to improve crypto regulations to suit their needs better. 

The crypto industry has already been lobbying but with mixed results. By contrast, Fidelity privately lobbied the SEC to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF in September 2021. For context, Fidelity is one of the largest asset managers in the world. It was arguing with an anti-crypto regulator behind closed doors, which is highly bullish. 

In retrospect, it's possible that Fidelity's lobbying is why Black Rock became encouraged to file for a spot Bitcoin ETF in June 2023. More importantly, Fidelity's past lobbying and Black Rock’s present SEC filing suggest that these lobbying efforts will only increase. This will ultimately be a net benefit to the crypto market. 

Institutional Investment

The third step to achieving crypto's full potential is investment from institutions and high-net-worth individuals. Of course, these entities hold most of the world's wealth. This is a consequence of having currencies whose supply is manipulated by people in power. Like all investors, institutions and high-net-worth individuals ultimately want to maximize their returns. As it happens, Bitcoin’s BTC is estimated to be the best-performing asset of all time, from an initial price of $0.09 to all-time highs of over. $69K, BTC has pulled a 760,000X return. 


Image source: Bitcoin’s Price History

Like all assets with such high returns, BTC’s returns will likely diminish over time, but it will still ostensibly outperform most other assets for the foreseeable future. This fundamentally depends on how much BTC we'll see in inflows. Although this is impossible to predict, there is one benchmark to remember; 

BTC is considered by many investors, including Black Rock, to be digital gold. As a result, it's generally believed that BTC’s market cap will someday be similar to that of gold. Now, gold's market cap currently sits at around $13 trillion. BTC's market cap is currently sitting at approximately $500 billion. So, BTC catching up to gold would mean a 26X increase in its price. This would translate to a BTC price of around $670,000. 
 
Interestingly, BTC’s peak price of $69K put its market cap at around $1.3 trillion, around 10% of gold's total market cap. This assumes that BTC is analogous to digital gold. Some have argued that BTC has additional value since Bitcoin is technically the most secure network in the world. It makes it the ideal base for other ecosystems, including payments, which the likes of the Lightning Network can support. On the topic of payment networks, smart contract cryptocurrencies are the ones that will capture this market share. It means that they could someday displace payment processors and other financial intermediaries. 

The total market cap of these financial intermediaries is over $2 trillion. Given that the market cap of Ethereum’s ETH is currently around $200 billion, matching analogous companies would mean a 10X increase in price. It translates to an ETH price of over $15K, but this likewise assumes that Ethereum is just a payments network; it is obviously much more than that. As such, one could argue that Ethereum is still near the beginning of its adoption curve. 

Crypto Adoption

The fourth step to achieving crypto's full potential is adoption. For reference, it's estimated that less than 5% of the world currently holds crypto. This implies that should more people choose to hold crypto, its price should have excellent upside potential. However, holding crypto is not the same as using crypto. Holding it constitutes investment effectively, whereas using it is actual adoption. 

On-chain data for the largest cryptos suggests there are only a few million daily users, a mere fraction of the world's population. Therefore, potential gains are even more significant than expected by merely extrapolating hodlers. For those unfamiliar, there are ultimately three reasons why people adopt crypto. The first is for profit, the second is for fun, which is very much intertwined with the first reason, and the third is out of necessity. This third reason has resulted in most of the actual crypto adoption. 

For example, 50% of Nigeria's population uses crypto daily, primarily because the government can't be trusted. This phenomenon is not unique to Nigeria; it's an accelerating trend worldwide. Considering that most central banks are currently rolling out Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), it becomes easy to imagine a world where the average person starts looking for alternatives to a digital currency controlled by institutions they don't trust. 

The demand for such alternatives is already increasing among some governments. The so-called Global South is looking to move away from the US dollar, and some reports suggest that crypto could be a part of their escape plan. Some countries already use crypto for international trade, and Russia is considering mining its own crypto. 

So, just like the adoption process at the individual level, the adoption process at the national level will eventually involve nations and national activities. Using crypto for things like international trade will become more accessible to the average country. At the same time, the tendency to weaponize fiat currencies will be increasing, and this will increase the demand for credibly neutral currencies. Decentralized cryptos like BTC could play a key role. 

Crypto Innovation

Crypto Adoption will ultimately depend on the progress of crypto innovation, the fifth step to achieving crypto’s full potential, particularly around user experience and privacy. Logically, it will be hard for individuals and institutions to adopt crypto in any meaningful way if they need to struggle with hardware wallets. 


Image source: Coursera.org

Significant developments have been on this front, the most notable of which is the gradual merging between hardware and software. It might sound bizarre, but a crypto phone like Solana Saga could solve crypto wallet User Interface (UI) and User Experience (UX). It's not just wallets, either. A lot of innovation is happening at the blockchain level. 

For instance, Ethereum’s EIP 4337 upgrade from earlier this year will allow any phone to have crypto phone-type properties, mainly hardware wallet-level security. It will also make it possible to create dApps with no gas fees or, rather, dApps where the user doesn't have to pay the gas fee. 

Constantly checking and accounting for transaction fees is another considerable hurdle to crypto adoption, which many crypto projects attempt to overcome. This will require entirely new approaches, such as charging crypto users monthly subscription fees to use a blockchain rather than charging them for every individual transaction. Of course, some of these approaches will require entirely new types of hardware, like more interactive hardware wallets.

Crypto Privacy

Crypto privacy is another niche to watch out for. Privacy in crypto has been a touchy subject. In one respect, crypto transparency is a huge advantage. At the same time, some degree of privacy is required for financial freedom, and high-net-worth individuals demand it. When it comes to the incessant third hand of government, there's a desire to exploit crypto’s transparency to track transactions and label any crypto privacy attempts as inherently encouraging criminality. 

For the crypto industry, balancing transparency with privacy presents a challenging problem. Zero-knowledge proofs have emerged as one potential solution to this problem, but they come with other problems. The primary one is ensuring that these zero-knowledge technologies don't have secret back doors. Thankfully, this is an issue that can be addressed.


Image Source: Developers:Circle.com

Regardless, the problem of balancing transparency with privacy is closely related to the problem of identity. Countries are pushing for digital IDs, and global regulators want to see these digital IDs integrated with cryptocurrency. The crypto industry has been working on its own supposedly decentralized digital ID solutions; however, these digital ID Solutions are just as centralized as the ones from governments. What's needed is a truly decentralized digital ID. 

There haven’t been any significant developments yet; however, the innovations around wallets and privacy continue rapidly and should be in place by the time the next crypto bull market comes around. This will further facilitate crypto investment and adoption at individual and institutional levels. 

Decentralization

Cryptocurrency's final step to achieve its full potential is complete decentralization. Without decentralization, everything that I just mentioned is off the table. That's because if crypto is centralized, it can be controlled, and if it can be controlled, it'll end up like our existing systems—news flash: Crypto's entire purpose is to replace our current systems with something better, starting with our monetary and financial systems. Naturally, the technology that underlies crypto is compelling. The only way it won't fall into the wrong hands is if it's genuinely decentralized. 

This article illustrates that decentralization means more than having many validators or miners. It means having a decentralized developer base, a decentralized coin or token distribution, a decentralized infrastructure layer, and a decentralized blockchain. Ultimately, this also means having a truly decentralized internet. 

Luckily, the Internet is somewhat decentralized and will likely become more decentralized as peer-to-peer Internet crypto projects like Helium see more investment and adoption. This also pertains to Markethive as it strives to decouple from all centralized entities prevailing as a tour de force in its next-gen social market broadcasting media niche. This adoption is necessary due to internet censorship. 

Currently, most cryptocurrencies are arguably not decentralized enough to evade control. It stands to reason, then, that these cryptocurrencies will not be the ones that make it. In other words, if you hold centralized cryptos, you're not early; you're late, very late. That said, this depends on whether the centralized cryptos you currently hold can become decentralized. To figure this out, you must ask one question: Is this crypto capable of building its own infrastructure and ecosystem without relying on a single set of individuals or institutions? 


Image Source: X – The DeFi Edge

Crypto Funding

The answer for most cryptos is no; however, that's not entirely their fault. One perspective is that one of the primary reasons why so many cryptos are so centralized is because of funding. Early investors in crypto projects want to see returns and often try to control the project to that end. This incentivizes crypto projects to cut corners on decentralization to ensure their investors are quickly rewarded. As we've seen, these so-called VC coins have seen the most aggressive pump-and-dump cycles, and most of them probably won't last past the next crypto cycle. 

The silver lining to this situation is that it fully displays the solution to the crypto centralization problem. The crypto industry needs to find a way to fund crypto projects in a more decentralized manner. 


Image by Markethive.com

Decentralization of Social Market Networks

Markethive is the ecosystem for entrepreneurs and a crypto project with the solution to top-level control issues, whether it be funding or the systems driving it. It is a decentralized, limited AI-secured rating and reputation system that is self-policing and a Human Intelligence (HI) that fosters a healthy level of meritocratic interaction. The community solely funds it with no prominent venture capitalists. The people are building it; it is of the people and for the people, so the community will profit, sharing the prosperity and abundance of every level of humanity.

It also creates a breeding ground for positive, creative, and beneficial content in which people's minds are prompted toward positive growth and critical thinking. Markethive is beyond its crypto wallet and Hivecoin release milestones, disengaging unreliable APIs and implementing multiple servers in preparation for its mining hives that give peace of mind—making it an impenetrable fortress against what has become a jungle, and a cesspool of fraud, scams, data harvesting, political bias, and dystopia. 

This divinely inspired project is all part of the Web 3 or 3rd generation Internet, which has emerged as a movement away from the centralization of services. Markethive is here for the rank and file with entrepreneurial aspirations at little to no cost to join. The all-encompassing social market broadcasting network delivers financial sovereignty, freedom of expression, privacy, and autonomy. We have entered into the much-needed world of decentralization, where the cancel culture is no longer an existential threat.  

At the time of writing this article, we are perfectly positioned to take advantage of the opportunities that are coming. Markethive, with its Hivecoin (HVC), will be poised for the next crypto bull run and participate in the facilitation of crypto achieving its full potential, where we’ll see HVC firmly established as a coin with purpose and utility in the free market. Do you want to be part of the decentralization revolution? Today, become an ‘Entrepreneur One’ and reap the rewards of Markethive’s ILP and revenue returns.  

May God bless and uphold you for all eternity…

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Once upon a time there was a young entrepreneur

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Once Upon a Time, There Was a Young Entrepreneur

ENTREPRENEUR

Once upon a time, there was a young entrepreneur named John. John had always been interested in making money online, but he didn't know where to start. He had heard stories of people making millions of dollars through the internet, but he didn't know how they did it.

One day, John stumbled upon a website that taught him the basics of making money online. He learned about affiliate marketing, where he could promote other people's products and earn a commission for each sale. He also learned about creating and selling his own products, like e-books and online courses.

John was excited to put what he had learned into action. He set up a website and began promoting affiliate products. He also wrote and published his own e-book on a topic he was passionate about. To his surprise, he started making sales almost immediately.

John's online business continued to grow, and he started to earn more and more money. He was able to quit his day job and focus on his online business full-time. He even hired a team to help him scale his business even further.

John's success didn't go unnoticed. Other people started to take notice of his online business and wanted to know how he did it. John decided to share his knowledge and experience with others and started teaching others how to make money online.

Through his teachings, John has helped thousands of people start their own online businesses and achieve financial freedom. He has even created a community of like-minded entrepreneurs who support and inspire each other.

John's story is a reminder that anyone can make money online if they are willing to put in the work and learn the necessary skills. The internet has opened up endless opportunities for making money, and it's up to each individual to seize those opportunities and turn them into success.

If you're interested in making money online, don't be afraid to take the first step. There are many resources available to help you learn the skills you need to succeed. Who knows, you may be the next John, and be on your way to achieving financial freedom through the power of the Internet.

In conclusion, Making money online is not a fairy tale, it's a reality. It takes hard work, dedication, and the willingness to learn new skills, but with the right mindset, anyone can turn their dreams into reality.

 

Here is your solution to end the struggle.

 

MARKETHIVE.COM 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

is a unique ecosystem for entrepreneurs that stands out from its competition in several ways. One of its most notable features is the wealth of information it provides to its users. Makethive.com is a hub of knowledge, offering everything from business advice to marketing tips. This information is invaluable to entrepreneurs who are looking to grow their businesses and achieve their career goals.

Another way in which Makethive stands out is in its size. With a vast network of users, Makethive provides entrepreneurs with a platform to connect and collaborate with like-minded individuals. This is particularly important for those who may feel isolated in their pursuits, as it can provide a sense of community and support.

Despite the size of its network, Makethive is not driven by fear or competition. Rather, it fosters a culture of collaboration and mutual support. This is evident in the way in which the website is structured, with features such as the HiveRank system, which rewards users for their contributions to the community.

Makethive also stands out in its commitment to optimizing its website for search engines. This is crucial for entrepreneurs who are looking to increase their online presence and attract new customers. The website is designed with sensory details in mind, ensuring that it is both visually appealing and easy to navigate.

Overall, Makethive.com is a website that is built on a foundation of courage and innovation. It provides entrepreneurs with the tools and resources they need to succeed, while also fostering a sense of community and collaboration. With its unique approach to entrepreneurship, Makethive is truly a website like no other.

MLMGATEWAY.COM

MLMGATEWAY

MLMGateway is an online networking and marketing platform designed specifically for individuals and businesses involved in multi-level marketing (MLM) and network marketing industries. Established to serve as a hub for network marketers and MLM professionals, MLMGateway.com provides a unique space for connecting, collaborating, and expanding their businesses.

Key features of MLMGateway include:

  1. Profile Creation: Users can create detailed profiles that showcase their experience, skills, and MLM opportunities. These profiles serve as a personal branding tool, allowing individuals to present themselves professionally within the MLM community.

  2. Connection Building: The platform encourages users to connect with others in the MLM industry, helping them expand their network and reach a broader audience. These connections can lead to potential business partnerships, collaborations, and the sharing of valuable insights.

  3. Content Sharing: Users can share articles, blog posts, and other content related to MLM, network marketing, and personal development. This feature helps users establish themselves as thought leaders in their niche and provide valuable information to their connections.

  4. Lead Generation: MLMGateway offers a lead generation system that enables users to connect with prospects interested in MLM opportunities. It can be a valuable resource for those seeking to grow their downline or find potential customers.

  5. Private Messaging: Users can engage in private conversations with their connections, making it easier to discuss business opportunities, share insights, and build relationships.

  6. Groups and Forums: The platform hosts various groups and forums where users can discuss specific MLM companies, marketing strategies, and industry-related topics. This fosters knowledge sharing and community building.

  7. Training and Webinars: MLMGateway occasionally offers training resources and webinars, helping users enhance their knowledge and skills in network marketing.

  8. Analytics: Users can track the performance of their content, connections, and lead-generation efforts through analytics, allowing them to refine their strategies for better results.

  9. Premium Features: The platform offers premium membership options that provide additional benefits, such as increased exposure, more connection requests, and other advanced features.

MLMGateway.com has become a valuable platform for MLM professionals to grow their businesses, share knowledge, and connect with like-minded individuals. While it offers significant benefits for those in the MLM industry, users should exercise due diligence and caution when considering any business opportunities or partnerships. Like all networking and marketing platforms, the effectiveness of MLMGateway.com depends on the user's approach and the quality of their interactions.

GODESANA.COM

GODESANA

At goDésana, there is an opportunity to build a successful business and achieve financial freedom. With the right mindset and dedication, it is possible to create a 6-figure business. The company's compensation plan offers several ways to earn income, including retail sales, team commissions, and bonuses.

One way to grow a successful business is by building a team of like-minded individuals who share your passion for wellness and natural products. By mentoring and supporting your team members, you can help them achieve their goals while also growing your own business.

Another key to success is staying up-to-date with the latest products and industry trends. goDésana provides ongoing training and resources to help consultants stay informed and grow their business.

Partnering with Local Businesses

goDésana also offers opportunities to partner with local businesses and expand your reach in the community. By collaborating with spas, fitness centers, and other wellness-focused businesses, you can introduce your products to a wider audience and build valuable relationships.

Partnering with local businesses can also lead to new opportunities for growth and expansion. For example, you may be able to co-host events or workshops to promote your products and services. This can help you connect with potential customers and build a loyal following.

Overall, goDésana provides a range of opportunities for success, whether you are looking to build a 6-figure business or partner with local businesses. With the right mindset, dedication, and support, you can achieve your goals and create a thriving business in the wellness industry.

Tim Moseley

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UofM Consumer sentiment falls to 63 providing support for gold 2 gains

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UofM Consumer sentiment falls to 63, providing support for gold 2% gains

The gold market is holding on to solid gains Friday as U.S. economic data points to a growing risk of stagflation, as consumer sentiment continues to drop but inflation expectations rise sharplUofM Consumer sentiment falls to 63, providing support for gold 2% gainsy.

Friday, the University of Michigan said the preliminary reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 63, down from September's reading of 68.1. The data was significantly weaker than expected, as economists were forecasting a drop to 67.2.

"Consumer sentiment fell back about 7% this October following two consecutive months of very little change. Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%. However, long-run expected business conditions are little changed, suggesting that consumers believe the current worsening in economic conditions will not persist," said Joanne Hsu, director of Surveys of Consumers, in the report.

The gold market was already seeing a significant rally ahead of the report. Still, the disappointing data has provided further support. December gold futures last traded at $1,925 an ounce, well above 2% on the day.

While falling consumer sentiment indicates weak consumption, the report also noted that inflation expectations jumped significantly. Consumers see inflation rising 3.8% by this time next year, up compared to 3.2% seen last month.

"The current reading is the highest since May 2023 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic," Hsu said in the report.

The survey also noted that long-term inflation expectations edged higher to 3.0%, up from 2.9%. However, consumer price expectations remain anchored in the new post-pandemic range.

"Long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic," the report said.

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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An Introduction to Blockchain Wallets and How They Operate

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An Introduction to Blockchain Wallets and How They Operate

A blockchain wallet is a fundamental component of blockchain technology that allows individuals to store, send, and receive cryptocurrencies. Whether you're new to the world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies or looking to deepen your understanding, this beginner's guide will help you grasp the basic concepts of how blockchain wallets work.

What is a Blockchain Wallet?

A blockchain wallet is a digital tool that provides users with the ability to interact with a blockchain network. It serves two primary functions:

  1. Storage: It stores your cryptographic keys, which are essential for accessing and controlling your cryptocurrencies. These keys include your public address (for receiving funds) and your private key (for authorizing transactions).

  2. Transaction Management: A blockchain wallet allows you to send and receive cryptocurrencies. When you initiate a transaction, your wallet uses your private key to digitally sign it, proving that you are the legitimate owner of the funds.

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Types of Blockchain Wallets

There are various types of blockchain wallets, each with its own characteristics, security features, and use cases:

  1. Software Wallets:

    • Web Wallets: These are accessible through a web browser and are convenient for beginners. However, they might be less secure due to potential online vulnerabilities.
    • Desktop Wallets: Installed on your computer, these offer greater security compared to web wallets. They provide control over your keys and can operate offline.
    • Mobile Wallets: Designed for smartphones, they offer portability and ease of use. Mobile wallets are suitable for small, everyday transactions.

  2. Hardware Wallets: These are physical devices specifically designed for securely storing cryptocurrency keys. They are considered one of the most secure options because they are typically offline and immune to online threats.

  3. Paper Wallets: A paper wallet is a physical document containing a public address and private key. It's an extremely secure way to store cryptocurrencies, as it's offline and immune to digital attacks. However, it requires careful handling to prevent physical damage or loss.

  4. Brain Wallets: These wallets are based on memorizing a passphrase or seed phrase. While they offer security through obscurity, they can be vulnerable if the passphrase is weak.

How Blockchain Wallets Work

  1. Generating Keys: When you create a wallet, it generates a pair of cryptographic keys – a public key and a private key. The public key is your wallet's address, which others can use to send you cryptocurrency. The private key is your secret code that allows you to access and control your funds.

  2. Receiving Funds: To receive cryptocurrency, you provide your wallet's public address to the sender. The sender initiates the transaction by signing it with their private key and broadcasting it to the blockchain network. Miners validate the transaction and, upon confirmation, update the blockchain's ledger.

  3. Sending Funds: When you want to send cryptocurrency, you use your wallet to create a transaction. It's signed with your private key to prove your ownership. This transaction is then broadcast to the network for validation and inclusion in the blockchain.

  4. Balance Tracking: Your wallet continuously monitors the blockchain for updates related to your public address. It keeps track of your cryptocurrency balance by aggregating incoming and outgoing transactions.

  5. Security: It's crucial to protect your private key at all costs. Loss or compromise of your private key can result in the loss of your funds. Secure your wallet with strong passwords, two-factor authentication, and, if using a hardware wallet, physical protection.

Seed Phrases

Many wallets, especially software and hardware wallets, provide a seed phrase, also known as a recovery phrase. This is a list of words (typically 12 or 24) that can be used to recover your wallet in case it's lost or stolen. It's essential to store this phrase securely, as it can be used to regenerate your keys.

Conclusion

Blockchain wallets are an integral part of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Understanding how they work and choosing the right type of wallet is crucial to ensure the security and ease of managing your digital assets. Always prioritize security measures and stay informed about the latest developments in blockchain and wallet technology to protect your investments.

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Tim Moseley

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Gold Price News: Gold Consolidates As Middle East Conflict Boosts Haven Appeal

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Gold Price News: Gold Consolidates As Middle East Conflict Boosts Haven Appeal

Once again, gold has confirmed its key role as a safe haven amid market uncertainty.

Growing geopolitical concerns from escalating tensions in Israel and Gaza increased investors’ demand for bullion and pushed the price higher. In the last few days, gold has been supported by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve key speakers, after months of hawkish rhetoric and rate hikes.

gold kau on kinesis exchange

The temporary weakness of the greenback and the decline of yields are also supportive factors for gold. As a result, yesterday we saw the precious metal extending its gains and consolidating above the support zone of $1,850.

For the time being, the next key resistance zone, at $1,890, remains relatively far away, with the gold price currently steady around $1,860. Although from a technical perspective, the scenario has improved.

The gold spot price has shown resilience remaining above the $1,850 threshold in the last 24 hours, while volatility has declined. Investors are now waiting for the release of the minutes from today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and US inflation data, which will be released tomorrow. The reports are forecast to show a decline from 3.7% to 3.6%.

A confirmation of these expectations could reinforce the notion that a peak in interest rates for this cycle has been reached – or at least, is extremely near. This is all supportive of gold.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver a bit weaker following warm US inflation report

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Gold, silver a bit weaker following warm U.S. inflation report

Gold and silver prices are slightly down in midday U.S. trading Thursday, following a U.S. consumer inflation reading that was just a bit higher than expected. The markets also saw routine corrective pullbacks from recent price gains. December gold was last down $2.90 at $1,884.20 and December silver was down $0.183 at $21.95.

Focus today was on a key U.S. inflation report: the consumer price index report for September. The CPI rose by 3.7% compared to the previous year–higher than the consensus estimate of up 3.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices advanced by 0.4%, easing from a 0.6% gain in August but exceeding market expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, also increased by 0.3% for the month and 4.1% on a 12-month basis, aligning with expectations. It marked the lowest reading since September 2021. The slightly warmer-than-expected CPI reading today slightly dented bullish enthusiasm in the precious metals markets. Still, the safe-haven bid amid the elevated Middle East tensions is likely to at least keep a floor under gold and silver prices.

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. The U.S. stock indexes this week are “climbing a wall of worry” as the turmoil in the Middle East is on the front burner of the marketplace.

  September sell-off presents buying opportunity for gold investors – WGC

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher, which was also a daily negative for the metals. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $83.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.651%.

Technically, December gold futures still see very early clues that a market bottom is in place. However, the bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at $1,900.00 and then at $1,913.60. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $1,871.70 and then at this week’s low of $1,857.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December silver futures prices scored a bearish “outside day” down today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $20.615. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $22.39 and then at $22.555. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $21.705 and then at $21.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 215 points at 359.05 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 378.60 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 367.45 cents and then at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 358.35 cents and then at the October low of 354.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

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Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold prices holding near one-week high as FOMC minutes support ‘higher for longer’ interest rates

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Gold prices holding near one-week high as FOMC minutes support 'higher for longer' interest rates

The gold market is holding solid gains even as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting show that the central bank is committed to maintaining a "higher for longer" monetary policy stance.

Although the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, the minutes showed that the committee continues to support elevated interest rates until it is confident that inflation is falling back to the 2% target.

"All participants agreed that policy should remain restrictive for some time until the Committee is confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward its objective," the minutes said. "Several participants commented that, with the policy rate likely at or near its peak, the focus of monetary policy decisions and communications should shift from how high to raise the policy rate to how long to hold the policy rate at restrictive levels."

The gold market is not seeing much reaction to the latest minutes. December gold futures last traded at $1,885.50 an ounce, up 0.54% on the day.

The gold market continues to be well supported due to renewed safe-haven demand as investors remained focused on the growing chaos in the Middle East and the new war between Israel and Hamas.

Although the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain restrictive monetary policies for the foreseeable future, the minutes also show the committee recognizes the difficult path that lies ahead.

"Many participants commented that even though economic activity had been resilient and the labor market had remained strong, there continued to be downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to the unemployment rate," the minutes said. "Participants generally noted that it was important to balance the risk of overtightening against the risk of insufficient tightening."

Despite the Federal Reserve's relatively hawkish stance, markets expect that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged next month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a less than 10% chance of a 25-basis point hike.

Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that he expects that the Fed's tightening cycle has ended.

"With several officials this week suggesting that higher yields could reduce the need for further rate hikes, we think it is increasingly likely that the Fed's next move will be a cut. We expect that to come in the first half of next year, with rapidly falling inflation and weak economic growth convincing officials to cut rates by 200bp in total by end-2024," he said in a note following the release of the minutes.

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Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold prices reined in by risk-on sentiment but geopolitics USD pullback should offer support – City Index’s Razaqzada

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Gold prices reined in by risk-on sentiment, but geopolitics, USD pullback should offer support – City Index's Razaqzada

Today’s uptick in risk appetite is creating some drag on gold prices, but the precious metal’s weekend gap remains open, says Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at City Index.

“In other words, gold is still comfortably higher than Friday’s close,” he observed. “More gains could be on the way for gold for as long as geopolitical risks remain elevated and if the upcoming US macro pointers trigger fresh selling in the dollar, after the greenback ended a run of 11 consecutive weekly gains last week.”

Razaqzada said that even though geopolitical risks such as the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict haven’t subsided, gold prices have moderated today, due in part to the rebound in bond yields.

“While gold may not be shining so brightly so far today, it could easily find renewed strength as the situation in the Middle East remains intense,” he said, underlining the potential for the conflict to widen. “This is why oil prices have remained elevated. Gold typically rises when there is heightened geopolitical risks.”

He said it’s possible that bond yields have peaked. “The stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday failed to deliver any more dollar strength and with the greenback falling further so far this week, the possibility that the dollar may have formed a top is undoubtedly something that many investors are wondering about,” he added. “If we see a similar response to this week’s upcoming data (FOMC minutes, CPI and UoM consumer Sentiment survey, among other things), then this will further fuel speculation that the worst is over [for] gold.”

Razaqzada said gold’s nearly 7% drop from its Sept. 21 high means prices were due to see a short covering rally. “So, some of the bullish price action since Friday could be just that – a short-covering bounce,” he said. “Therefore, one should not get too carried away by the recent bullish price action.”

He remains steadfastly bullish about gold’s long-term outlook, however. “[M]uch of the Fed’s hawkish repricing of interest rates are now done, meaning that the downside for bonds and, by extension, gold should be limited moving forward,” Razaqzada said. “So, be on the lookout for more bullish signals to emerge from here on.”

Razaqzada said that the fact that spot gold has not returned to Friday’s closing prices “must be making it uncomfortable to trade gold, as usually gaps tend to fill in highly liquid assets.” But he cautioned that this is not always the case. “I recall a gap on the EUR/USD a few years ago that remained unfilled for several months,” he said. “While a gap-fill would make things a bit more comfortable, gold can simply grind higher for a while, especially if the dollar selling gathers pace.”

He also offered some short-term strategies that may serve traders well in the current market. “One way to look for new trades while the gap remains open is to zoom in on the smaller time frames like the hourly, wait for a bit of consolidation and then look for long setups once price breaks higher, or about to,” he said, adding that traders can use short-term price structures as their invalidation levels.

“Obviously a much better scenario would be for gold to fill its gap and then create fresh bullish signals to trigger another rally,” Razaqzada said. “That could still happen, and the trigger could be the upcoming US data releases that will undoubtedly move the dollar and bond yields in the direction of the surprise.”

Spot gold continues to hold above $1857 on Tuesday afternoon, which Razaqzada said is the first key short-term resistance level. “While a bit of a move lower from here is understandable, the fact that support in the long-term area around $1805 to $1820 held last week, before the flare up of geopolitical risks, this could be a sign that the metal may have formed a low,” he said.

 

“The next level of potential resistance is seen around $1885, followed by $1900, with the latter being the base of the previous breakdown,” Razaqzada concluded. “On the downside, the next potential support level is Friday’s high at $1835.”

Spot gold last traded at $1858.66, down 0.15% on the session.

By

Ernest Hoffman

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter